PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This morning marked our 115th freeze of the season. 

Looks like most valley locations kept too much cloud cover to hit freezing, but still got pretty chilly overnight. A few spots did hit the freezing mark. 

Looks like we had a flurry overnight, but nothing measurable. We've had snow fall on the first five days of the month, with 3 days having measurable snow totaling 9.4". Still about 3" on the ground, but I would imagine most of that melts off today. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I was almost 5 years old when this tornado touched down in the greater Portland and Vancouver Area. 

 

https://instagram.com/stories/fox12oregon/3074294821488613995?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=

[LowerGarfield]

51 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I picked up my first freeze since March 1st this morning. With 30.7F as a low, it will also mean that April will end up having a colder low than March (30.9F) which probably doesn't happen all that often.

It was kind of crazy how few freezes I had in March despite the cold temperatures. For whatever reason the clouds and wind didn't align up here while OLM had 17 freezes, BLI had 12, and SEA had 5.

Ditto. At bedtime it was 31F and In sure it was colder than that. Haven't seen any yellow jacket nests yet so that's good. Wife started planting yesterday so we'll see how they do.

[MossMan]

Believe I have had more freezes so far this April than I did in January! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty, partly sunny morning out there. Lots of birds singing. Low of 38.

[Phishy Wx]

24 IMBY this morning. brrr

[Phishy Wx]

currently 29

[MossMan]

PNA starting to look a bit unsure in the long range. Also I forgot to post a moonlit Phil last evening. Phil is the name of my deadish tree since the real Phil loves it so much!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty, partly sunny morning out there. Lots of birds singing. Low of 38.

Pretty socked in down the valley 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty socked in down the valley 

Low clouds already moving in from the west here now. It’s coming. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 35 this morning.

[MossMan]

27 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I was almost 5 years old when this tornado touched down the the greater Portland and Vancouver Area. 

 

https://instagram.com/stories/fox12oregon/3074294821488613995?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=

Do you remember it? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Through the first four days of April, PDX is running six degrees below average with precip right at average. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Do you remember it? 

My Grandma was teaching at Peter S Ogden elementary when it hit (the school I went to about 20 years later - by then it was rebuilt in a different location about half mile away) She remembers evacuating her class into the gym.

[Ken in Wood Village]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Do you remember it? 

I remember being brought inside but I didn't know why. I do remember the sky getting so dark that the street lights came on. There was a lot of lightning but the tornado was to far North from where I lived to have seen it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This morning marked our 115th freeze of the season. 

Looks like most valley locations kept too much cloud cover to hit freezing, but still got pretty chilly overnight. A few spots did hit the freezing mark. 

Looks like we had a flurry overnight, but nothing measurable. We've had snow fall on the first five days of the month, with 3 days having measurable snow totaling 9.4". Still about 3" on the ground, but I would imagine most of that melts off today. 

That trough on the long range 00z GFs was just epic Andrew.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

PNA starting to look a bit unsure in the long range. Also I forgot to post a moonlit Phil last evening. Phil is the name of my deadish tree since the real Phil loves it so much!  

You should put Phil out of his misery.

[Phil]

Speaking of Phil and misery, 2012 tops the list again. Followed by 1957 which I’d mentioned a week or two ago. Lots of cold phase/-TNH type years on there.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Andrew’s favorite year tops the list again.

 

I keep liking to think this year is like 2012 but the inverse. Instead of moving into the climate regime we’ve been stuck in the last decade, we’re moving back out of it.

[TT-SEA]

Sun coming out now... should be a nice day.   Also now looks like Friday afternoon and Saturday might be decent.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I keep liking to think this year is like 2012 but the inverse. Instead of moving into the climate regime we’ve been stuck in the last decade, we’re moving back out of it.

You might be right. The circulation over the NPAC is in a heavily -TNH/-NPMM type state which appears dissociated from ENSO. That’s usually indicative of an intradecadal phase change, or at least a pattern that’s lower frequency than ENSO.

Whether it’s a “new cold phase” or just a multiyear excursion is still TBD, but such a shift in the NPMM was statistically due, so that wouldn’t be surprising at all.

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Believe I have had more freezes so far this April than I did in January! 

Had a low of 28F this morning, my 85th freeze this season.  Three freezes this month.  January had 12 freezes here so I doubt I will equal that this month.  This is the 2nd most freezes I've seen in 30 years of record keeping, behind the 89 recorded the winter of 2008/2009.  I average 60 per season. 

I know that's more than anyone wants to know... sorry I just had to get it off my chest.

[Phil]

We could hit 90°F today. I’m not ready.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Had a low of 28F this morning, my 85th freeze this season.  Three freezes this month.  January had 12 freezes here so I doubt I will equal that this month.  This is the 2nd most freezes I've seen in 30 years of record keeping, behind the 89 recorded the winter of 2008/2009.  I average 60 per season. 

I know that's more than anyone wants to know... sorry I just had to get it off my chest.

Actually that’s exactly the type of stuff I want to know about. The more details the more I learn.

[Cascadia_Wx]

47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I keep liking to think this year is like 2012 but the inverse. Instead of moving into the climate regime we’ve been stuck in the last decade, we’re moving back out of it.

Just so the warmth mafia doesn’t misunderstand this, I’m not calling for climate change to reverse or for our climate to stop gradually warming. Don’t worry guys. Maybe some short term alleviation of the western drought or a little more moderation of our summers, though. Even with a warming baseline there is still room for multi-decadal variability.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

We could hit 90°F today. I’m not ready.

And it looks like you just scored your first 70+ low of the season! Congratulations!

First 70+ dew point can’t be far off.

[Skagit Weather]

27 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Had a low of 28F this morning, my 85th freeze this season.  Three freezes this month.  January had 12 freezes here so I doubt I will equal that this month.  This is the 2nd most freezes I've seen in 30 years of record keeping, behind the 89 recorded the winter of 2008/2009.  I average 60 per season. 

I know that's more than anyone wants to know... sorry I just had to get it off my chest.

I'm at 49 freezes for the season which is above average (43), but pretty comparable to a number of other years. My station also only counts temperatures as 32.0 or below as a freeze which I think may effect my total slightly (as compared to 32.4 for many stations). My best winter/season (since 2010-11) was actually 2011/12 when I had 53 freezes, although 2018-19 might have been higher, but I'm missing data from the last half of March and all of April.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GEFS looking really good through about day 10.

[Winterdog]

28 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'm at 49 freezes for the season which is above average (43), but pretty comparable to a number of other years. My station also only counts temperatures as 32.0 or below as a freeze which I think may effect my total slightly (as compared to 32.4 for many stations). My best winter/season (since 2010-11) was actually 2011/12 when I had 53 freezes, although 2018-19 might have been higher, but I'm missing data from the last half of March and all of April.

Same for me.  The software for my Davis station does not round down for freezes.   You must be closer to the Sound with numbers like that.  

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Same for me.  The software for my Davis station does not round down for freezes.   You must be closer to the Sound with numbers like that.  

Oh yeah, definitely. I was talking about the airports, not your station in particular. Yeah, I'm less than a mile from the water so the warming influence is real, but seems to have been particularly pronounced this season.

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And it looks like you just scored your first 70+ low of the season! Congratulations!

First 70+ dew point can’t be far off.

And on a clear night too. Stoopid. (Edit: actually not 70+ locally, but tonight might try).

Usually humidity is low during the spring, at least. Minus the occasional spike, it usually doesn’t get nasty until later in June.

[Slushy Inch]

Cold trough. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

We could hit 90°F today. I’m not ready.

Humidity only 49%. Weak.

[Phil]

ECMWF still going for a strong/super niño. I’m actually skeptical it will be that intense, moderate event seems more likely to me?

And it seems to peak it in August? Yeah, that ain’t happening. At the very least it’s too quick with the transition.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Phil said:

ECMWF still going for a strong/super niño. I’m actually skeptical it will be that intense, moderate event seems more likely to me?

Last super was as recent as 2015. Please no.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

And on a clear night too. Stoopid. (Edit: actually not 70+ locally, but tonight might try).

Usually humidity is low during the spring, at least. Minus the occasional spike, it usually doesn’t get nasty until later in June.

The report in your signature says it was 70+ all night in your backyard:

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Last super was as recent as 2015. Please no.

Well that one evolved very differently. NH/SH Pacific meridional modes were actually reversed vs this year.

Technically strong/super niño is still possible but I’m skeptical. And if it happens there’s essentially zero chance it will come on as strongly as the ECMWF suggests.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The report in your signature says it was 70+ all night in your backyard:

 

Oh that’s the forecast low for tonight (and high for today).

Last night dropped well into the 60s.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just so the warmth mafia doesn’t misunderstand this, I’m not calling for climate change to reverse or for our climate to stop gradually warming. Don’t worry guys. Maybe some short term alleviation of the western drought or a little more moderation of our summers, though. Even with a warming baseline there is still room for multi-decadal variability.

I think most people realize this, even when narratives about the permanent Sacramentation of our climate are allowed to run wild. Deep beneath the melodrama, there is the fact that push/pull is still a thing within a long term warming trend. Pretty likely we’ll be warmer overall 50 years from now, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to say there’s a decent statistical probability that our next ten summers will be cooler than the last ten. 

[Meatyorologist]

The Sacramento Valley used to be a marsh actually, before white settlers over-cultivated the land. A tad too wet for Tim's taste.

Maybe the Hermosillo-fication of our climate? Perhaps we'll throw in some tropical monsoon activity this summer to really drive that in?