PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

KATX is DOWN

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what am I supposed to be looking at? 

25th day with measurable snow since February 13th. 

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seeing reports of snow in Springfield and Dexter! 

Sylvia dropped everyone down a peg or two!! 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

25th day with measurable snow since February 13th. 

DANG

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the Harney Basin, it looks like this is their best snow pack since 1989, and #5 overall, their top 4 years were all in the 1980s. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I know a lot of you were hoping for a warm up but it's looking like we won't see this for awhile. I've been following Michael for awhile, he does have some good insights about the model runs. Here is the latest video he just posted. 

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I know a lot of you were hoping for a warm up but it's looking like we won't see this for awhile. I've been following Michael for awhile, he does have some good insights about the model runs. Here is the latest video he just posted. 

 

 

Cold spring, then comes the torching. Nothing new to see here, folks, move along.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

34th consecutive year with zero measurable snow in both March and April.

I believe 2016 did not see accumulating snow in March or April here. That was the last time it did not happen. And in 12 years I have only had one major snow event in December... So there is that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cold spring, then comes the torching. Nothing new to see here, folks, move along.

But perhaps just perhaps the WORM HAS TURNED?!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I believe 2016 did not see accumulating snow in March or April here. That was the last time it did not happen. And in 12 years I have only had one major snow event in December... So there is that.

Sorry, just in mode this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trough next Tuesday/Wednesday looking pretty chilly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe some transitory ridging late next week? Could just be a mirage though. 

[AlTahoe]

With no more big snows coming up here are my totals so far this winter. We usually add another 6-12" from here through May.

2022-2023
Nov 2nd 6"
Nov 9th 14"

Dec 1st 18"
Dec 11th 31"
Dec 31st 30"

jan 4th 3"
Jan 5th 7"
jan 8th 3"
jan 11th 23"
jan 14th 14"
jan 16th 17"
jan 29th 1"

feb 5th 6"
feb 11th 2"
feb 21st 5"
Feb 22nd 6"
feb 24th 14"
Feb 25th 10"
Feb 26th 12"
Feb 27th 10"
Feb 28th 14"

march 4th 6"
march 5th 14"
march 6th 6"
march 7th 5"
march 8th 4"
march 13th 3"
march 20th 6"
march 21st 4"
march 29th 10"

April 3rd 2"

306"

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I think there’s actually a decent chance Vancouver scores some sticking snow the weekend of the 15th and 16th. I will be jinxing Portland for that weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think there’s actually a decent chance Vancouver scores some sticking snow the weekend of the 15th and 16th. I will be jinxing Portland for that weekend.

Whoaa

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whoaa

It’s coming! Never doubt the power of The Jinx!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh dear... April 2008 redux?!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh dear... April 2008 redux?!

Exactly the opposite of what that map shows will happen: snow for YVR, cold rain for PDX.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Additional light blessings this morning. Hit 30 for the 3rd day in a row. Middle of next week starting to look potentially chilly/snowy. No signs of summer yet. 

Perhaps your snowiest season there yet??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Perhaps your snowiest season there yet??

Getting close... The 12z GFS would do the trick. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like another big round of severe weather coming up for the south and Midwest. This winter/spring has been old school for sure, about as textbook La Nina as you can get.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the Owyhee basin only 1982,83,84 had higher snow pack (POR is 1980-present). Could still potentially pass 1982. 

In the Klamath Basin it's the best snow pack year since 2006. 

John Day basin is only about .2" of SWE behind 2006 and 1989, if they can bump above them it would move them into the top 3 snow pack years. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In the Owyhee basin only 1982,83,84 had higher snow pack (POR is 1980-present). Could still potentially pass 1982. 

In the Klamath Basin it's the best snow pack year since 2006. 

John Day basin is only about .2" of SWE behind 2006 and 1989, if they can bump above them it would move them into the top 3 snow pack years. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Good call. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's somewhat disturbing that all my early analog years had major summer heat spikes. lol

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS ensembles. The period around the 9th and 10th were forecast to have 850mb temps around +15c just a few days ago. What a massive collapse.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 37 here. Mostly cloudy currently and 41. One casualty of the more progressive pattern this week has been the April frost prospects. After mid March or so a cold trough transitioning to a ridge pattern is the best way score a good freeze in the lowlands. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS ensembles. The period around the 9th and 10th were forecast to have 850mb temps around +15c just a few days ago. What a massive collapse.

I can hear the gentle trickle of Tim's tears from here...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looking like another pretty deep trough centered around Tax Day.

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Sylvia dropped everyone down a peg or two!! 

That's Tim's cousin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 37 here. Mostly cloudy currently and 41. One casualty of the more progressive pattern this week has been the April frost prospects. After mid March or so a cold trough transitioning to a ridge pattern is the best way score a good freeze in the lowlands. 

Some would argue its a relatively small price to pay. 

One of the most fun parts of spring up here are the massive temperature differences we can have compared to the valley. Our high was 16 degrees cooler than SLE yesterday. When we get a 5 minute sunbreak our temp doesn't immediately rocket into the low 50s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking like another pretty deep trough centered around Tax Day.

Gotta remember to send the state of Oregon a phat check.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some would argue its a relatively small price to pay. 

One of the most fun parts of spring up here are the massive temperature differences we can have compared to the valley. Our high was 16 degrees cooler than SLE yesterday. When we get a 5 minute sunbreak our temp doesn't immediately rocket into the low 50s. 

For Jim it’s the ultimate price. 

I like frosts and I can’t really count on snow anymore to pad my stats, so I’m always for it. That said I would way rather have this week play out the way it’s going to now than having a couple frosty mornings with gradually warming days moving into a PERMA-ridge.

Best of all worlds in the spring IMO is cold airmasses followed by brief periods of shortwave ridging then repeat. Can rack up a good mix of cold nights/chilly days that way. April 2011 was that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For Jim it’s the ultimate price. 

I like frosts and I can’t really count on snow anymore to pad my stats, so I’m always for it. That said I would way rather have this week play out the way it’s going to now than having a couple frosty mornings with gradually warming days moving into a PERMA-ridge.

Best of all worlds in the spring IMO is cold airmasses followed by brief periods of shortwave ridging then repeat. Can rack up a good mix of cold nights/chilly days that way. April 2011 was that way.

Yeah, in this case it's a fair trade, but I do hear you. At one point we were looking at some solid freezes in the WV this week. But at least we got rid of those cruel 70s. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 37 here. Mostly cloudy currently and 41. One casualty of the more progressive pattern this week has been the April frost prospects. After mid March or so a cold trough transitioning to a ridge pattern is the best way score a good freeze in the lowlands. 

Speaking of frosts, three out of four April mornings so far have featured a frost or a freeze IMBY.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, in this case it's a fair trade, but I do hear you. At one point we were looking at some solid freezes in the WV this week. But at least we got rid of those cruel 70s. 

I was looking at the first half of April 1975 a lot yesterday. Man what a beastly pattern for cold nights and even cold days at the onset. Although even that month valley spots were flirting with 70 by the 10th or so. Tough to get enough of a continental BITE for the cold nights at this point without sacrificing some daytime chilliness.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh dear... April 2008 redux?!

Consecutive runs! Lightning hail and graupel I would bet!

[Slushy Inch]

I want something like this again.https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/05/thunderstorms-have-begun-over-northwest.html?m=0

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted.

Phil usually owns up to his forecasts and will explain where things went wrong. I’ve never known him to delete a post to cover his tracks regarding a bust. All kind of ironic coming from you since you’re the one who likes to move on as if nothing happened and never face up to it when your thoughts are challenged here.