September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I'm certainly hoping for wet, but I'm not looking forward to more heat.  Today's 12z Euro has one day in the upper 80s and three days in the low 90s over the next ten days.  The Euro also has most of the rain west and north of southeast Iowa.  It has nothing in Chicago over the next ten days.

[Niko]

Looks like summer is sticking around for most of us. Wet and warm the next couple of weeks on average.

Its NOAA. They always predict above normal temps.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy skies w a temp of 66F.

[Minny_Weather]

Its NOAA. They always predict above normal temps.

That moreso applies to longer-range forecasts though. Usually they're less warm biased for mid-range outlooks like the ones posted above.

[Tom]

As the sun rises on this calm, clear but chilly morning (53F), a beautiful day is in store with highs in the mid/upper 70's and plenty of delightful sunshine. Sunday looks cloudy with scattered showers and temps in the upper 60's.  Those who want to warm up after this long cool spell are going to get some late season warmth mid next week...possible 90F for Chicago???  The Euro keeps trying to pump those 90's into our area but I'm suspect. 

 

In any event, a bit of both worlds as Autumn and Summer clash this month creating an environment that will produce a wet pattern across the MW and points north.  How long will the warmth last???  More Autumn-like storms are looming in the future...I have one potential strong storm on my calendar 9/16-9/20.

[OKwx2k4]

With NOAA that big, red "A" stands for awful. I'm so ready for cold.

[Niko]

Currently at 64F w cloudy skies.

 

Next week features upper 80s??? Dare I say near 90F??!! My highs are predicted to be in the upper 80s w some storms around, hopefully severe. Cools off by end of the workweek into the 70s, but that takes us back to near average temps.

[Thunder98]

Looks like summer is sticking around for most of us. Wet and warm the next couple of weeks on average.

 

It wasn't too long ago this year where there was

 

[jaster220]

Yesterday evening around here was just as gloomy as a late November evening with fog, mist and even light rain falling. Temp in mid-60's. Much nicer day in progress attm. September is not only my birth month but also my 2nd fave month as most years the wx here is comfortable as summer winds down. 

[westMJim]

Both here at my house and officially at GRR there was just 0.01” of rain yesterday. The high/low at GRR was 68/57.  For today the record high at Grand Rapids is 96 set in 1960 the record low is 38 set in 1986. The warmest minimum is 74 set in 1985 the coldest maximum is 58 set in 1917. Last year the high was 68 and the low was 56.

[Niko]

Yesterday evening around here was just as gloomy as a late November evening with fog, mist and even light rain falling. Temp in mid-60's. Much nicer day in progress attm. September is not only my birth month but also my 2nd fave month as most years the wx here is comfortable as summer winds down. 

Same here , this morning was cloudy and coolish here w temps in the 50s. Sun broke out now and turned out to be a beautiful day. Tomorrow will feature highs only in the 60s as a CF is expected to scroll on by. Tomorrow nite, temps fall into the 40s.

 

Are ya ready for this warm-up next week?!

[St Paul Storm]

Ya’ll be roasting but we’ll have the bonfires roaring up here.

[Stormy]

Same here , this morning was cloudy and coolish here w temps in the 50s. Sun broke out now and turned out to be a beautiful day. Tomorrow will feature highs only in the 60s as a CF is expected to scroll on by. Tomorrow nite, temps fall into the 40s.

 

Are ya ready for this warm-up next week?!

The heat won’t be as intense as in the summer when the sun shines stronger, plus it cools off more with these longer nights. I’m hoping for some storms at times. Might have a few thunderstorms this evening and night, with some in western Iowa currently gaining coverage, it seems like.

[Niko]

The heat won’t be as intense as in the summer when the sun shines stronger, plus it cools off more with these longer nights. I’m hoping for some storms at times. Might have a few thunderstorms this evening and night, with some in western Iowa currently gaining coverage, it seems like.

Indeed, I am wishing for a few severe storms as well when the warm, humid airmass arrives. Poor Jaster can't seem to get a decent t'stm thus far.

[Niko]

Lets not forget Dorian because its not done yet. Current at 100 mph (CAT2), as a Post Tropical Cyclone. Massive hit for Nova Scotia and other parts of Atlantic Canada. Its extratropical, but the strength is in the realm of a Category 2 storm.

[Stormy]

Looks like some decent rain heading my way, and we really need some again. Thundershowers have stratified out and most of the lightning disappeared which isn’t surprising. Southeast Iowa made it up to around 80° while northwestern parts of the state had highs in the 60°s.

[jaster220]

Same here , this morning was cloudy and coolish here w temps in the 50s. Sun broke out now and turned out to be a beautiful day. Tomorrow will feature highs only in the 60s as a CF is expected to scroll on by. Tomorrow nite, temps fall into the 40s.

 

Are ya ready for this warm-up next week?!

 

I already put away the floor fans, so ofc it'll get hot, lol. I'm fine up to 85F. Above that will warm the place too much. Only saving fact is the much lower sun angle vs June or July. 

[Niko]

I already put away the floor fans, so ofc it'll get hot, lol. I'm fine up to 85F. Above that will warm the place too much. Only saving fact is the much lower sun angle vs June or July. 

Exactly.

[Niko]

Beautiful evening outside. Skies are mostly cloudy and temp is at 61F. Lows dropping in the mid to upper 50s tanite. Tommorrow will feature a fairly cool day w readings not getting outta the 60s.

[Andie]

101* today. Low of 73*.

 

Much too soon to see those cool afternoons. But they're on the way.

[Stormy]

The storms really popped in se. Nebraska. It’s probably heading for n. Mo. as the CAMS were showing the last few days. Only a bit over 0.10” here so far, but the air column should be saturated finally,

[Stormy]

I ended up with a better than expected 0.84” of rain since last evening.

 

Wake low wind gusted up to 37mph from the ese. around 4:30am. Suddenly it calmed down and shifted to the nw. for a bit.

[westMJim]

Yesterdays H/L at Grand Rapids was 74/55 the departure for September 2019 at GRR is now -2.4° there was no rain reported hat GRR or here at my house. The over night low at GRR was 53 and here at my house it was 51. For today the average H/L is 76/56 the record high is 95 set in 1960 and the record low is 36 set in 1951. The record warm minimum is 74 set in 1919 and the record cold maximum is 58 set in 1925. Last year the H/L was 67/54.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a decent 0.51" late yesterday and overnight.  The ground had become quite dry again, so we can use anything we can get.

[jaster220]

Even Kzoo area has gotten dry. A narrow zone between BC and there still looks nice and green along the freeway. Otherwise, both directions the medians are brown and the corn's all brown, stunted, and withering. When will it end?

 

Drought! my least fave wx phenom 

[St Paul Storm]

I feel bad posting this right after Jaster’s last post about his drought. Our second wettest year-to-date on record continues this upcoming week. Save some of this for Dec-Mar.

[St Paul Storm]

Forecast high temp now lowered to 59F today. Light to moderate rain falling.

[Andie]

Quick update as Dorian exits the world.

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island are experiencing very heavy flooding, wind damage, and mass power outages. I have a friend in NS and I haven't heard from her. Hope she and her family are ok.

 

This storm just won't give it up.

[Niko]

A cool high of 62F under cloudy skies. Definitely Autumnlike weather today.

[Niko]

Looks like mid 80s will top it off as the warmest for my area b4 it starts cooling off by end of next week and especially onto the weekend.

[james1976]

I only received 0.12" of rain this weekend. Clouds and 60s have been nice though! Very fall-like. Seeing more leaves on the ground and more colors in the trees.

Not liking the 7 day forecast though. Lots of upper 80s and humid. Yuck. Only thing I like about it is there are thunderstorm chances most days.

[Andie]

Heard from my froend in NS and she and her family are on a generator right now. 

Massive outages. 

That was on whale of a hurricane.

[OKwx2k4]

Heard from my froend in NS and she and her family are on a generator right now.

Massive outages.

That was on whale of a hurricane.

Glad you heard back from them. I guess it was still whirling at around 100-110 when it hit there. Crazy stuff.

[OKwx2k4]

I can't seem to catch a break. The bering seas surface temps and the cold tinge are all spot on as precursors to cold here, but over the last 7 days, that area southwest of Mexico is blasting hot. For we folks in the south, that is a good indicator of downstream ridging in the longer term as the ocean loses its contrast there. Hence the heat that won't leave.

 

Other news for the day is that the AO is finally forecast to crash again. Where it dumps the cold will likely be a mystery though as models haven't been giving me much hope over the next 3 weeks.

[Niko]

Currently at 55F w cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Looks like I have a chance for severe weather by Tues and lasting thru Thurs. Temps will be in the 80s, along w humidity. It will be a warm week (Very Summerlike) indeed.

[Niko]

A large construction crane in Halifax, Canada collapsed into a building from Dorian........

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1170709212986523649

[Tom]

Conflicting drivers of the weather pattern in the medium/long range are showing up in the models.  I'll be honest, I didn't expect this much heat to build this week but nonetheless, its coming for a little while.  The question remains, how long will it last for us up across the northern Sub?  I still have my target dates of 9/16-9/20 for a strong storm to cut up through our Sub.  Given the nature of storms cutting NW during the month of Sept, another surge of warmth is likely out ahead of this system.  I'm not in agreement with sustained warmth post system.  I think over the next few days models will change things up a bit.

 

The SOI has been steady in a deep negative state over the last 7-10 days and this will have an impact across N.A. heading into the following week.  As OkWx mentioned, the AO is about to tank and if the NAO cooperates, we will see more cooling and stronger troughs.  The +PNA is also a signal for us to look for the NW NAMER ridge.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX talking a possible 5-10 year rainfall event mid week. Meanwhile the radar is exploding to the south as the front moves north. Upgraded to a slight risk of severe wx today.

[Hawkeye]

MPX talking a possible 5-10 year rainfall event mid week. Meanwhile the radar is exploding to the south as the front moves north. Upgraded to a slight risk of severe wx today.

 

Models have been consistently showing widespread heavy rain up north.  I was just hoping some of it would bleed far enough south to get us.  So far, so good.

 

I received a half inch yesterday and we're trying for another half today.