Jesse Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 EPS 500mb height anomaly at hour 240: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 I would like cold onshore flow or an arctic blast more than anything. Tim? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 I have two pet mice, well they're not exactly pets since they were never invited inside. They greatly piss me off and ignore my mousetraps. I named them Ridgey and BSF. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 We are certainly starting to see the modelling reflect a more -PNA like look in the LR per this EPS run:912C5325-1370-4301-B429-A7DDC71DF6E6.png This means things will get interesting for the PNW and the whole West Coast region for the majority of December, as per the details of the drivers in my long term outlook <a href=“https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/“>here </a> This is caused by the concluding +EAMT and a synoptic situation and base state that supports such PNA domain changes and hence snowfall for the PNW.See this is your first post. What is your background? Very Phil like post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 You should have edited out the wetter and more active part to make that work better. Also, it is nice to see the second preferred method on full display here!Wha happened to your passionate, Greta-esque charge against the EPS and all its timfoolery? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Tim? Phil?! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 We are certainly starting to see the modelling reflect a more -PNA like look in the LR per this EPS run:912C5325-1370-4301-B429-A7DDC71DF6E6.pngThis means things will get interesting for the PNW and the whole West Coast region for the majority of December, as per the details of the drivers in my long term outlook https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/“>hereThis is caused by the concluding +EAMT and a synoptic situation and base state that supports such PNA domain changes and hence snowfall for the PNW. Did you have trouble setting up a new account? My brother and my buddy both told me they have been unsuccessful in setting up accounts on here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 See this is your first post. What is your background? Very Phil like post.No educational background in the subject, just been around for a while doing as a hobby and interested in medium-long range weather patterns primarily. Run a blog and am on several other forums. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Wha happened to your passionate, Greta-esque charge against the EPS and all its timfoolery? I never said it was a bad model. That's all just strawman crap. When it's often the only model image that's consistently posted by certain members, and it's largely only posted when we are painted in bright, warm and droughty reds and browns that's sure to raise some eyebrows, though. And of course I am only one of the dozens of posters here who have pointed out that timdency. To bad every1 haz him awl rong... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Did you have trouble setting up a new account? My brother and my buddy both told me they have been unsuccessful in setting up accounts on here. I have tried multiple times over the past few months and failed, and it finally worked this time. Apparently persistence is key 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Did you have trouble setting up a new account? My brother and my buddy both told me they have been unsuccessful in setting up accounts on here.So it is Phil? Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 When I got moderated I tried to set up another account and it doesn’t ever let you get past the robot word. No matter if you type it in perfect every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 So it is Phil? Lol. lol just because he’s new and knows some weather abbreviations doesn’t make him Phil. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 lol just because he’s new and knows some weather abbreviations doesn’t make him Phil. Ha ha. It was a very Phil-like post. Let us not kid ourselves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Ya'll are not gonna like the ensembles. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Rain is starting to get heavier now and the breeze is picking up too. Up to 0.10” for the day. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 EVERYBODY’S ALL WORKED UP!!! And Kung Fu fighting. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 When I got moderated I tried to set up another account and it doesn’t ever let you get past the robot word. No matter if you type it in perfect every time. That is what they were telling me. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Ha ha. It was a very Phil-like post. Let us not kid ourselves. I think someone needs to take out their head trash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 We are certainly starting to see the modelling reflect a more -PNA like look in the LR per this EPS run: 912C5325-1370-4301-B429-A7DDC71DF6E6.png This means things will get interesting for the PNW and the whole West Coast region for the majority of December, as per the details of the drivers in my long term outlook https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/“>here This is caused by the concluding +EAMT and a synoptic situation and base state that supports such PNA domain changes and hence snowfall for the PNW.Nice post! Would the +EAMT support -PNA, though? Obviously it’s responsible for the extension of the East-Asian jet, but IMO the transient Aleutian ridge/+NPO can be likely attributed to frictional torque in resonance with lingering IO forcing. When the WPAC takes over from the IO and we establish the NW-Pacific trough/-EPO again, I don’t think that will favor a very active PNA signal, unless I’m missing something. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Looks like snoqualmie pass is gonna get some decent snow too. Snow levels starting off lower than anticipated...more good news. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Looks like snoqualmie pass is gonna get some decent snow too. Snow levels starting off lower than anticipated...more good news. Great news! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 D15 EPS..lots of STJ cutting across the southern US with a retrograding high latitude wave station. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 So it is Phil? Lol.If this was true he would of snuck Baffin Island into the mix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Also some smoothing going on there. That pulse of warmth quickly retrogrades back across NW-Canada on most members but the different timings amongst the ensemble members makes it look like a nationwide torch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 I think someone needs to take out their head trash.Don’t have any. I actually am training 14 employees, 6 of whom are under 25 and have a ton of head trash. Glad you read that Jesse, and yes I know you are older than that. I was just stating that it sounded like Phil. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Don’t have any. I actually am training 14 employees, 6 of whom are under 25 and have a ton of head trash. Glad you read that Jesse, and yes I know you are older than that. I was just stating that it sounded like Phil. Cheers.We all have some head trash. I know I do. It’s okay to be human. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Interesting day on the forum! Too bad about the ensembles. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Nice post!Would the +EAMT support -PNA, though? Obviously it’s responsible for the extension of the East-Asian jet, but IMO the transient Aleutian ridge/+NPO can be likely attributed to frictional torque in resonance with lingering IO forcing.When the WPAC takes over from the IO and we establish the NW-Pacific trough/-EPO again, I don’t think that will favor a very active PNA signal, unless I’m missing something.Thanks. No not necessarily, equating these weather patterns to each other in this case is specific, rather than as a general rule.On many occasions, a +EAMT supports rather the opposite, a +PNA. But in this case, the extension of the jet results from an increase in momentum in the North Pacific basin IMO. The FT has been negative for sometime, though there are some positive FT anomalies in the NH subtropics. But I do agree with the overall view you have here, you are going to need the atmospheric base state to change from the IO to WPAC. I’d however argue that won’t happen anytime soon, probably more likely (gradually of course) to be seen in January. For now, the West Coast should benefit until the momentum anomalies are scrubbed from the NP basin, at which point it is up to the synoptics in this scenario. Of course there’s a fair amount of talk at the moment about -NAM and -NAOs, which doesn’t affect the PNW directly, but will have eventual downstream effects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Thanks. No not necessarily, equating these weather patterns to each other in this case is specific, rather than as a general rule.On many occasions, a +EAMT supports rather the opposite, a +PNA. But in this case, the extension of the jet results from an increase in momentum in the North Pacific basin IMO. The FT has been negative for sometime, though there are some positive FT anomalies in the NH subtropics. But I do agree with the overall view you have here, you are going to need the atmospheric base state to change from the IO to WPAC. I’d however argue that won’t happen anytime soon, probably more likely (gradually of course) to be seen in January. For now, the West Coast should benefit until the momentum anomalies are scrubbed from the NP basin, at which point it is up to the synoptics in this scenario. Of course there’s a fair amount of talk at the moment about -NAM and -NAOs, which doesn’t affect the PNW directly, but will have eventual downstream effects.We finally have a local Phil! Great stuff! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Dome buster might be wise to invest in a trash compactor at this rate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Thanks. No not necessarily, equating these weather patterns to each other in this case is specific, rather than as a general rule.On many occasions, a +EAMT supports rather the opposite, a +PNA. But in this case, the extension of the jet results from an increase in momentum in the North Pacific basin IMO. The FT has been negative for sometime, though there are some positive FT anomalies in the NH subtropics.But the ongoing +EAMT is what’s adding said zonal momentum/producing the jet extension in the first place, so I’m not clear as to what you’re saying? That additional momentum has been removed efficiently by frictional torque to this point. It’s the only reason AAM isn’t sky high through the roof right now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 We finally have a local Phil! Great stuff!I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local Welcome to the forum. Funnily enough I went down an internet rabbit hole researching the climate of the Blue Mountains in eastern Australia just yesterday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The MT contributions to AAM/tendency. EAMT clearly dominates but notice AAM is not shooting through the roof despite the multiweek + event. Friction countering. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local I’m a nobody. Glad I have someone to talk to. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 But the ongoing +EAMT is what’s adding said zonal momentum/producing the jet extension in the first place, so I’m not clear as to what you’re saying? That additional momentum has been removed efficiently by frictional torque downstream from the Pacific to this point. It’s the only reason AAM isn’t sky high through the roof right now.Yeah I concur with that. That’s what I meant, sorry if I was rambling on. The gradual scrubbing of the momentum anomalies over the next 10-15 days will dislodge the Aleutian Low as it previously standed, and allow the development of a strong +EPO, with -AAM-esque anomalies driving it. Today (per NP jetstream analysis) is the peak of the effects of the +EAMT. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The MT contributions to AAM/tendency. EAMT clearly dominates but notice AAM is not shooting through the roof despite the multiweek + event. Friction counteringHere’s a fresh chart for you:EAMT declining, and MT worldwide well into the negatives. Will see GWO Phase 2 very soon. And we probably won’t see a positive MT for a while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Yeah I concur with that. That’s what I meant, sorry if I was rambling on. The gradual scrubbing of the momentum anomalies over the next 10-15 days will dislodge the Aleutian Low as it previously standed, and allow the development of a strong +EPO, with -AAM-esque anomalies driving it. Today (per NP jetstream analysis) is the peak of the effects of the +EAMT.Interesting take. We’ll see, I guess. FWIW, I’d agree with +EPO if we weren’t to be observing NAM effects from the November stratwarm in tandem with a building WPAC exhaust pipe. That in addition to the antecedent +AAM moat present in the subtropics should (IMO) prevent a raging +EPO, and favor +WPO and perhaps -EPO (following the -AO in late Dec/early Jan). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Acronym battle!!! 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.