December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

NPO?

[van city]

Zac on Twitter, welcome to the forum.

[Phil]

Here’s a fresh chart for you:

F1E3BC70-0AFD-4E27-ACA7-B86BD78C7FA1.gif

EAMT declining, and MT worldwide well into the negatives. Will see GWO Phase 2 very soon.

And we probably won’t see a positive MT for a while.

Correct, which suggests to me a retraction of the NPAC jet in the coming weeks (one of the reasons for the model struggles of late). The flip to zonal/wet arose via the jet extension and will terminate upon its retraction as the most anomalous westerly jet then resides in the subtropics.

 

How are you deriving +EPO from this, again? I just want to make sure I’m not being a dummy and misinterpreting something.

[Phil]

NPO?

North Pacific Oscillation (Walker/Bliss,1932).

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pacific_Oscillation

[Phil]

If anyone catches errors in my posts/reasoning, let me know. It’s finals week and I’m a walking zombie.

[Front Ranger]

Welcome to the forum.

 

Funnily enough I went down an internet rabbit hole researching the climate of the Blue Mountains in eastern Australia just yesterday.

I actually looked Down Under my sink when taking out the trash yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

North Pacific Oscillation (Walker/Bliss,1932).

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pacific_Oscillation

Similar to the NPI.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If anyone catches errors in my posts/reasoning, let me know. It’s finals week and I’m a walking zombie.

 

Finals week is enough to put any student into a "testy" mood.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I would like cold onshore flow or an arctic blast more than anything. 

 

I'll just be happy if the storms continue and the snow pack starts building up in the mountains.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50/43 spread for the day. Gonna be above normal again. Only 5 in a row though and there will be some negative departures coming up.

[Phil]

Finals week is enough to put any student into a "testy" mood.

Especially considering the fact I’m 99% sure I failed one of my math exams. It was an implosion..lack of sleep hurt me for sure. #IndexTheoryOnManifoldsFtmfl

[Snowy Hibbo]

Correct, which suggests to me a retraction of the NPAC jet in the coming weeks (one of the reasons for the model struggles of late). The flip to zonal/wet arose via the jet extension and will terminate upon its retraction as the most anomalous westerly jet then resides in the subtropics.

How are you deriving +EPO from this, again? I just want to make sure I’m not being a dummy and misinterpreting something.

It’s probably more likely to be a bit of both -EPO and +EPO, with the latter slowly fading. It’s just that the +EPO is going to be the outlet as to which the Aleutian Low is displaced upon over the medium term.

 

From something like this:

Or it’s opposite here:

 

Both of these particularly the GEFS are very -AAM looks, they have bold anomalies that lie like high to low to high, rather than the Pacific being dominated by a bipole setup with an Aleutian Low.

 

Because there is more momentum down south, the low anomaly that forms the +EPO seems to move on both models down to California in the D10-D15 period, ending the relative +EPO. There will probably be bouts of -EPO forcing, but not strong enough to really force deep cold risk on the Eastern seaboard.

 

So yeah as it’s modelled it probably will favour California beyond the next 10-15 days.

 

And you are right in that there is significant model separation over matters like these. EPS favours a +EPO, while GEFS is more -EPO like. I’d argue that there will be periods of both at least for the medium term. The long term (Late Dec beyond) will probably feature more ridging in the PNW region, because the momentum has been reduced within a GWO Phase 3/4. And the remaining momentum left will probably be more inclined to go south, because of the Aleutian ridging that is to develop.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Especially considering the fact I’m 99% sure I failed one of my math exams. It was an implosion..lack of sleep hurt me for sure. #IndexTheoryOnManifoldsFtmfl

 

It's been many years since I've been in college, but when I was it took me two years to figure out that my optimal exam week study technique was to goof off and not study. Reason was studying would inevitably cause me to worry, which would make me nervous, which would cause me to make stupid mistakes and do poorly. Goofing off kept my mind off the exams and maximized the chance I'd be in a good mood when taking the exam. And if I didn't know an answer or two, I wouldn't panic: it was only to be expected, given how I had goofed off.

 

Drove everyone else crazy ("It's exam week! You can't goof off!"), but it worked for me.

[El_Nina]

Feels nice to return to normalcy. Crested 2" for the month about an hour ago, 0.12" for the day.

[The Swamp]

Hibbo is Phil your twin brother?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That is the resolution though. Probably more like 2-3".

Yeah but still good rainfall.

[Omegaraptor]

Interestingly HIO has had a higher low than PDX for today. 44 at HIO and 42 at PDX.

 

Also HIO is up to 1.54" MTD... which is still 0.7" below average.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local

Welcome to the forum! You might be the first person from Australia on here. What part of Australia are you from?

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS short range interesting that trough for Sunday-Tuesday has trended colder. PDX Mean temp -5c cluster to -7c. Results in cold, gusty east wind. Seattle mean temp down to -6c. There is of course one huge problem. Only the GFS Op/GEFS suggests this and the GEM/ECMWF aren't nearly as chilly.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours

00z GEM in 2 hours 20 minutes

00z GEFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 15 minutes

00z EPS in 7 hours

 

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! B E L I E V E !!!!

[Snowy Hibbo]

Welcome to the forum! You might be the first person from Australia on here. What part of Australia are you from?

Melbourne, Victoria in the south.

[MossMan]

I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local

Ahhh gotcha! I run the mobile version of the forum so I don’t see the location.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Melbourne, Victoria in the south.

 

What got you interested in PNW weather?

[MossMan]

.09” on the day so far, 1.70” for the month.

 

Currently 44 degrees after a high of 47 and a low of 42.

[Guest CulverJosh]

WWF Acronym Battle #1.

 

When: 12/11/2019

 

Hibbo vs Phil

 

Wednesday, Wednesday, Wednesday !!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Remember Mark Nelsen says the new GFS may have a cold bias. Let's watch for that this weekend. 

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing pretty good at both Stevens & Snoqualmie

[Guest CulverJosh]

Snowing pretty good at both Stevens & Snoqualmie

I would think so. Pretty close to snowing here in Culver....

[Deweydog]

Interestingly HIO has had a higher low than PDX for today. 44 at HIO and 42 at PDX.

 

Also HIO is up to 1.54" MTD... which is still 0.7" below average.

‘Tis the season for gorge drift!

[TacomaWaWx]

Raining decently out there...up to 0.31” now....1.15” for December.

[El_Nina]

[Omegaraptor]

Timberline thermometer seems to be malfunctioning. There is no way it is 10 degrees there right now while Meadows is 31.

[El_Nina]

Timberline thermometer seems to be malfunctioning. There is no way it is 10 degrees there right now while Meadows is 31.

Timberline is ALMOST always 5 degrees colder than government camp so that's what I do if their thermostat is tweaking

[High Desert Mat?]

I would think so. Pretty close to snowing here in Culver....

No it isn’t. The atmosphere doesn’t cool as you go up as you’d think right now. It’s 33 at govy camp right now.

[Guest CulverJosh]

No it isn’t. The atmosphere doesn’t cool as you go up as you’d think right now. It’s 33 at govy camp right now.

I know I know. Just getting them amped.

[Snowy Hibbo]

What got you interested in PNW weather?

I have been interested in US West Coast weather for quite a while now, just to expand my horizons.

[High Desert Mat?]

I know I know. Just getting them amped.

The dome is here!!!!

[El_Nina]

I know I know. Just getting them amped.

I believed it. Thought you might've had some cold air still trapped. That area is pretty unpredictable and radarless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believed it. Thought you might've had some cold air still trapped. That area is pretty unpredictable and radarless.

 

Yeah my buddy who lives near Josh says he is at 34 right now. 

[GHweatherChris]

We have had 9.3 inches of snow fall as rain today here.