Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sure he meant in general it's colder here in April and May than it is in Tennessee and that has been part of the learning curve.  Not that it's been that colder than normal. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your area seems to be significantly cooler than King County.    Do any of your neighbors have gardens?

Yes. Lady down the road has a prolific dahlia garden. I know it is possible, just tricky

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cold? It’s been one of the warmest late April through early June periods in recorded history throughout the region.

It was cool before that, but in a much more pedestrian way relative to the current warmth.

It’s “cold” compared to TN though. An average July in Memphis would obliterate all time records in W-WA.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Yes. Lady down the road has a prolific dahlia garden. I know it is possible, just tricky

Our dahlias are prolific every summer as well.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cold? It’s been one of the warmest late April through early June periods in recorded history throughout the region.

It was cool before that, but in a much more pedestrian way relative to the current warmth.

You really should move down south. Since records began in 1877, Downtown LA had its 20th coldest May and 23rd coldest January to May for high temperatures. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another cool morning here. Low of 46 so far.

GFS has been pretty consistent with cooler and possibly wetter pattern developing in the mid to long range. Euro sadly had been more stubborn, though.

[T-Town]

49 here. Nice start to the day. 

[T-Town]

Some pretty chilly temps out there to start the day. Olympia at 39. It’s nice to have nice sunny days without heat. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Another cool morning here. Low of 46 so far.

GFS has been pretty consistent with cooler and possibly wetter pattern developing in the mid to long range. Euro sadly had been more stubborn, though.

The Euro/EPS is king for a reason. Can’t count how many times it has humiliated all other guidance out this way, despite being on its lonesome with whatever solution it projects. It is just on another level entirely.

That said, there are rare cases where it slips up. And I’m tempted to say this might be one of those cases. Last nights 00z EPS made a significant move, with a majority of members jumping into a cooler/+NPO pattern, though there is still a warm cluster more similar to the operational/control runs. But it was a notable shift.

However, the GFS progression is more -NPO, which is one of its biases associated with GOA cutoffs, and none of the EPS members look like that, either. So I suspect the GFS is wrong on that front.

But I’ll also go out on a fragile limb and predict the Euro/EPS will shift substantially cooler by 12z today or 00z tonight. We’ll see.

[Phil]

CPC outlook remains bullish on precipitation chances throughout the intermountain west through week-4.

What an incredible difference a year makes.

[Phil]

California is almost entirely out of the drought now. And a large portion of the intermountain west continues to run positive soil moisture departures.

[Phil]

CPC also projects some improvement in condition over the Plains and MT/WY during the month of June. But much of the NE/Midwest could see drought develop. Phase 7/8/1 is not a good pattern for rainfall out this way in spring/early summer.

[MossMan]

Deep blue skies. Low of 43. 

Edited June 3 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Truly Gods country in Curry and Coos Counties. 

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Truly Gods country in Curry and Coos Counties. 

Awesome pics. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Deep blue skies. Low of 43. 

Blue filter??

[SnowWillarrive]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

California is almost entirely out of the drought now. And a large portion of the intermountain west continues to run positive soil moisture departures.

I assume this is a good thing for us in the PNW during summer? Having a moist SW probably mutes the 4CH pushing into our region. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lows of 41,39,41 to start June at EUG. 

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Blue filter??

100% pure…Just like the 1990’s sky! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

100% pure…Just like the 1990’s sky! 

Was in Coquille last night for the Gay 90s festival. 

Edited June 3 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Slushy Inch]

A warm EPS run. Heat rebuilds at the end. Much more ridging than the GFS.

[runninthruda206]

34 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

A warm EPS run. Heat rebuilds at the end. Much more ridging than the GFS.

Is it showing the trough next weekend like the gfs? 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, runninthruda206 said:

Is it showing the trough next weekend like the gfs? 

A very minor trough that undercuts the ridge. Does cool the west down a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be a top 5 warm June. If we can avoid temps over 110 we should avoid warmest of all time. Big if. 

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a top 5 warm June. If we can avoid temps over 110 we should avoid warmest of all time. Big if. 

I don’t think there will be any 100s in June. In fact I’ll wager there will be no 90s after 6/15 on the west side.

[LowerGarfield]

In the LC valley. Currently about 85 or 86F. Enjoying the cool Snake River breeze.

[NWbyNW]

Beautiful weekend!  The Pacific Northwest is showcasing its best assets today at the NASCAR Xfinity race in Portland.  Mount Hood in full view! First race here it poured down rain, but this time it's beautiful.  All the drivers, broadcast group, have been singing the praises of how beautiful the region is!  Absolutely love to see that!  Fantastic racing too! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS continues to be tolerable. A dream. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS continues to be tolerable. A dream. 

Today's mid 70s and crystal blue sky is absolutely intolerable.     Could not be more miserable.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I don’t think there will be any 100s in June. In fact I’ll wager there will be no 90s after 6/15 on the west side.

Is that when the mega-ridge leaves the PNW and Canada?

[TT-SEA]

Currently at Lake Tapps... perfect evening.

[LowerGarfield]

80 degrees back home and perfect weather. Our cherry tree is liking it. Clear skies. Hoping next April in Texas will be this nice.

[TT-SEA]

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really pretty day. 79/45 spread. Cool start and blue skies.

Looks like a bit of a cool down tomorrow, then warmer next week through midweek. Both the GFS and Euro are converging on a cooldown after that. GFS/GEFS wants to keep us cool beyond that, while the Euro wants to warm us back up a little, although the 12z EPS trended a little better in the long range today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

At one point Phil was predicting PNW would get some rain and cooler weather in late May and early June.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wish there was a place to get some good katsu chicken around here.

Or catfish

Or hushpuppies

Or fried crawfish

Or teriyaki chicken where they actually have teriyaki sauce on the chicken

Or a proper chicken fried steak without destroying it with horrible sausage gravy

Or independent places that don’t cost a lot

Or a proper gas grill instead of my Always Sunny in Philadelphia-style electric one…

Or an ability to procure and make this stuff without a shaky hand that ruins the recipe even though it usually still tastes like shitt.

Been an oof kinda day. Grateful that it’s at least been beautiful outside.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The lake has no chlorine

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Is that when the mega-ridge leaves the PNW and Canada?

Yes, one last hurrah coming up then it takes a break for awhile.

Worth noting Dr. Roundy’s MJO-analog derived composite projects another W-Canada/PNW heatwave during the second week of July, but once again, it doesn’t arise via the 4CH, so it is a quick hitter. In fact there is a ULL in the SW US at that time.

Will have to see if this is correct, though.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

[Deweydog]

KNIGHTS WIN!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Chewbacca Defense]

On 6/1/2023 at 7:37 AM, Deweydog said:

It’s my birthday month. Gift’s accepted. Go Knights.

I hear June is a good month for a birthday.  I picked up my birthday/father's day gift down by Lake Sammamish this morning.

 

I could feel the heat radiating off the lake, it was like bath water.  After I picked up the boat, I thought about getting out on the lake to do my own water temperature survey, maybe go to that sandbar and see if I could find @TT-SEA but then I realized I forgot my life jacket.  Oh well, perhaps another time.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Low is spinning over Utah

[Chewbacca Defense]

On 6/1/2023 at 2:26 PM, Phil said:

Judah is on board! Related to the final warming perhaps?

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1664308075145117697?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Does this mean its gonna snow?

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, MossMan said:

Deep blue skies. Low of 43. 

Interesting, as I was driving back from Lake Sammamish and got to the Skagit Valley around noon the sky seemed to be pretty hazy.  I was trying to figure out if it was smoke or just a marine haze....

[TT-SEA]

You would think that wicked trough in the NE would be really cold and wet like it would be here.   But it actually results in weather some people on here would call hot.   No wonder Phil loves summer troughs so much.   

[Phil]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You would think that wicked trough in the NE would be really cold and wet like it would be here.   But it actually results in weather some people on here would call hot.   No wonder Phil loves summer troughs so much.   

Yeah sadly it takes a trough like that just to keep us out of the 90s these days. And temperature averages in early June are analogous to those of mid-September.

Come July/August such troughs often increase afternoon highs by drying the boundary layer and reducing cloud cover/convection, unless it’s a major trough. But either way, it still ends up more comfortable due to lower dew points, and cooling is more efficient at night. Plus they’re usually preceded by thunderstorms. Win-win.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS did not bite on any meaningful cool down or troughing.

[Phil]

Now imagine what a true death ridge like y’all have been seeing in recent years would do here. Cringe.

Thankfully it’s been quite awhile since we’ve had one, but it’s probably only a matter of time. They tend to happen near solar maximum with descending westerly shear/+QBO, especially following a a significant El Niño.

Which is very likely what we’ll have next year.  I’ve actually had 2024 on my death ridge radar for awhile now. But in the meantime I will enjoy this El Niño-onset summer (which are usually nice), then will worry about reverse-psyching the heat back to Tim’s house next year.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Now imagine what a true death ridge like y’all have been seeing in recent years would do here. Cringe.

Thankfully it’s been quite awhile since we’ve had one, but it’s probably only a matter of time. They tend to happen near solar maximum with descending westerly shear/+QBO, especially following a a significant El Niño.

Which is very likely what we’ll have next year.  I’ve actually had 2024 on my death ridge radar for awhile now. But in the meantime I will enjoy this El Niño-onset summer (which are usually nice), then will worry about reverse-psyching the heat back to Tim’s house next year.

Not sure I would call what have had "death ridging".    That has been focused more over the Midwest lately.

Over the last 15 days... SEA is at just +0.4 while Minneapolis has been +8.7 over the same period.  

Side note... back in late April you predicted that the ridging would be focused over the middle of the country by the second of half of May.    You have been nailing it for the last few months... no joke.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS did not bite on any meaningful cool down or troughing.

Coldest June on record for California definitely remains possible.