Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You think it might snow? 

 

It Willarrive. 

[GHweatherChris]

4th consecutive morning with a low in the mid 30's, had a touch of frost yesterday, just amazing!!

[High Desert Mat?]

17 hours ago, Phil said:

Warm and dry, maybe a wet start.

Dangerous to bet against the ECMWF/EPS. Pattern change is probably rushed on some of the other guidance.

The EPS timing actually lines up better with what you’d expect from the MJO/subseasonal forcing(s).

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Hoping there are exceptions to the rule I guess. Like ‘68-‘69. I could live with that one. 

[Phil]

It can still happen!

https://twitter.com/kairokiitsak/status/1664486653191241728?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

57 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Hoping there are exceptions to the rule I guess. Like ‘68-‘69. I could live with that one. 

I’d argue there is no rule. Have always hated those maps depicting the “canonical” Niño/Niña patterns, as if they are inherent properties of ENSO. It doesn’t actually work that way.

[Phil]

My comment re: winter 2023/24 was somewhat tongue in cheek, in case that wasn’t clear.

Warm/dry winter may be statistically favored, but that doesn’t preclude cold periods on a subseasonal scale. Too early to make detailed LR forecasts.

[the_convergence_zone]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d argue there is no rule. Have always hated those maps depicting the “canonical” Niño/Niña patterns, as if they are inherent properties of ENSO. It doesn’t actually work that way.

ENSO explains about 1/3 of the variance in winter temperatures and precipitation on the west coast. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

It can still happen!

https://twitter.com/kairokiitsak/status/1664486653191241728?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Meanwhile China is suffering record heat with 100+ temps. 

[Eugene-5SW]

In the "silver lining" department, my neighbor's clear cut erupted with daisies. Not sure if they're native, but they're sure pretty.

[Phil]

EPS upgrade scheduled for 6/27! Will be 101 ensemble members (currently 52) and the “weeklies” will run every day.

Gonna be lit.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

In the "silver lining" department, my neighbor's clear cut erupted with daisies. Not sure if they're native, but they're sure pretty.

Chrysanthemum leucanthemum, ox-eye daisy. Not native.

[GobBluth]

Impressively suppressed ridging on both the GFS and CMC long term.

[ChristheElohim]

As of 1040 am

Fife 63°

 

Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop 60°

 

EQC/Port of Tacoma 61°

 

Salishan 60°

 

Portland Ave/72nd St. 61°

 

45th/McKinley Ave  61°

 

Lakewood Central(Town Center) 59°

 

Spanaway 63°

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

As of 1040 am

Fife 63°

 

Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop 60°

 

EQC/Port of Tacoma 61°

 

Salishan 60°

 

Portland Ave/72nd St. 61°

 

45th/McKinley Ave  61°

 

Lakewood Central(Town Center) 59°

 

Spanaway 63°

60 here on the west side. 

[Phil]

SW US is an island oasis on the 12z CMC ensembles.

[Slushy Inch]

Euro is looking toasty starting Tuesday. And at least mountain convection later on.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day.

[Omegaraptor]

Euro sticking to its guns. 80s straight through the end of the run.

[Cloud]

21 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF did not even show any low clouds or organized marine layer for the next 10 days.   Pretty unusual at this time of year.

Maybe it’s just me but it does seems/feels like our marine layer around here is gone in recent years for this time of year. I think this type of weather is usually morning clouds, then burn off in the afternoon for sunshine in the 70s. Right now, we’re going into the 70s with wire to wire sunshine.
 

Also the fog, we don’t have many foggy days anymore, not really counting the inversions. Seems unusual, but may just be the new trend, weather going forward. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Maybe it’s just me but it does seems/feels like our marine layer around here is gone in recent years for this time of year. I think this type of weather is usually morning clouds, then burn off in the afternoon for sunshine in the 70s. Right now, we’re going into the 70s with wire to wire sunshine.
 

Also the fog, we don’t have many foggy days anymore, not really counting the inversions. Seems unusual, but may just be the new trend, weather going forward. 

We had 2-3 days of that in the last week or so - it was perfection. I also don't mind these wire-to-wire days as long as it's not 70 by 10 am and cools off at night. 

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Maybe it’s just me but it does seems/feels like our marine layer around here is gone in recent years for this time of year. I think this type of weather is usually morning clouds, then burn off in the afternoon for sunshine in the 70s. Right now, we’re going into the 70s with wire to wire sunshine.
 

Also the fog, we don’t have many foggy days anymore, not really counting the inversions. Seems unusual, but may just be the new trend, weather going forward. 

Just for clarification... SEA has not reached 70 since Sunday and that was not even on the hour.   It has not been above 70 there for 6 days.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty warm EPS run...

[Cloud]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for clarification... SEA has not reached 70 since Sunday and that was not even on the hour.   It has not been above 70 there for 6 days.

The point still being is that it’s not particularly warm or hot lately despite the sunshine. It’s perfect Goldilocks weather. The post was more about what happened to the marine layer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful day at Cape Blanco. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The point still being is that it’s not particularly warm or hot lately despite the sunshine. It’s perfect Goldilocks weather. The post was more about what happened to the marine layer. 

Totally agree.   I was thinking the same thing about the lack of marine layer and yet somehow we are still managing perfect temps.    

Correction to my last post... it has been a full week since SEA has been above 70.   It barely touched 70 there for a little while at some point late Saturday afternoon but the last time it was over 70 was one week ago this afternoon. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Maine is taking a break from summer.   Crashed today and stays cold and wet for most of the next week.

[fubario]

lol

[ChristheElohim]

69.8° at SeaTac tho I don't think it's still going down officially as 70° yet. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

69.8° at SeaTac tho I don't think it's still going down officially as 70° yet. 

The high will be over 70.

[TT-SEA]

People say Idaho and Montana are so sunny in the summer.   They might not have marine layer but they frequently have lots of mid level convective clouds... particularly during the afternoons.    

[GobBluth]

Sometimes it seems like the NWS is making forecasting too hard. Like why bother mentioning the possibility of hitting 100?

Current NBM deterministic guidance shows around 90 degrees for the
interior valley, while the 50th percentile has low to mid 90s for
Tuesday. NBM also continues to slightly back away from temperatures
above 100 degrees. Currently there is around 10 percent chance of
100F at PDX, and 5 percent at KEUG for example. Temperatures cool
slightly to the mid 80s to low 90s for Wednesday.  Does not look like
record breaking temperatures, though could be if the more extreme
forecast comes verifies.

[Phil]

Amazing how different 94°F feels when it isn’t humid. Barely broke a sweat outside today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a glimmer of hope on the 18z 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, GobBluth said:

Sometimes it seems like the NWS is making forecasting too hard. Like why bother mentioning the possibility of hitting 100?

Current NBM deterministic guidance shows around 90 degrees for the
interior valley, while the 50th percentile has low to mid 90s for
Tuesday. NBM also continues to slightly back away from temperatures
above 100 degrees. Currently there is around 10 percent chance of
100F at PDX, and 5 percent at KEUG for example. Temperatures cool
slightly to the mid 80s to low 90s for Wednesday.  Does not look like
record breaking temperatures, though could be if the more extreme
forecast comes verifies.

They seem to have forgotten how that “model” publicly humiliated them in late February. 

Edited June 2 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowed at Cape Blanco this year. 

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

4th consecutive morning with a low in the mid 30's, had a touch of frost yesterday, just amazing!!

Wow, I assume the plants are doing okay?

It is 77F and sunny now. Beautiful weather.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

4th consecutive morning with a low in the mid 30's, had a touch of frost yesterday, just amazing!!

Same here. 37, 35.2, 34.5, 38.2

Frost on back to back mornings. Somehow the garden has survived. 

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Wow, I assume the plants are doing okay?

It is 77F and sunny now. Beautiful weather.

We aren't growing anything this year, but if we were they would be ok.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Same here. 37, 35.2, 34.5, 38.2

Frost on back to back mornings. Somehow the garden has survived. 

A light frost that only lasts a little bit is fine, yesterday was the first time in my life I have seen frost in June though, thought that was cool!!

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Amazing how different 94°F feels when it isn’t humid. Barely broke a sweat outside today.

Heck yeah. We went to Texas last month and while the temperature was only 5-10 degrees warmer, the humidity made everything feel so different.

[T-Town]

Nice day for a beer at Narrows Brewing. 

[ChristheElohim]

Highs today

 

Fife/Port of Tacoma 74°

 

Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop 74°

 

EQC/Port of Tacoma 76°

 

Salishan (My Neighborhood)73°

 

Portland Ave/72nd St 72°

 

KTCM(McChord AFB) 73°

 

Lakewood Central(Town Center) 74°

 

Spanaway 75°

 

North South Hill 74°

[Phil]

Good thing we got this out of the way early.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They seem to have forgotten how that “model” publicly humiliated them in late February. 

That was sure a fun storm, though I’m sure many of those caught in it because the NWS failed to issue a warning think otherwise.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

A light frost that only lasts a little bit is fine, yesterday was the first time in my life I have seen frost in June though, thought that was cool!!

It was wild, but I was freaking out about the garden. I woke up at 4 am to go feel the windshields in the dark to see if it was frozen even though it was 34/35. Sure enough solid ice. I thought for sure I’d lose everything. Good to know the tender stuff can take it. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Good thing we got this out of the way early.

Omega block. Omega block. Omega block. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really nice day. 75/44 spread here. Mostly sunny and a little breezy in the afternoon.

This weather and these kinds of temps are great for the warm season. I really hope we can manage more rain this month though. The window is closing quickly, since wishing for significant June rainfall after the summer solstice feels a bit like a fool’s errand.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I grew up growing stuff in Tennessee. I love gardening with a passion, but it has been a difficult transition to learn the process here. Between deer and cold it was a steep learning curve. I put zucchini out in April my first season . Nice to hear/see everyone’s success stories, keeps me motivated. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I grew up growing stuff in Tennessee. I love gardening with a passion, but it has been a difficult transition to learn the process here. Between deer and cold it was a steep learning curve. I put zucchini out in April my first season . Nice to hear/see everyone’s success stories, keeps me motivated. 

Your area seems to be significantly cooler than King County.    Do any of your neighbors have gardens?

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I grew up growing stuff in Tennessee. I love gardening with a passion, but it has been a difficult transition to learn the process here. Between deer and cold it was a steep learning curve. I put zucchini out in April my first season . Nice to hear/see everyone’s success stories, keeps me motivated. 

Cold? It’s been one of the warmest late April through early June periods in recorded history throughout the region.

It was cool before that, but in a much more pedestrian way relative to the current warmth.