Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Wish this could hold all summer.

[jcmcgaffey]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

New month and I totally forgot about the new thread. 68F and absolutely gorgeous today.

Been posting less today because I have to make a confession…

I don’t play video games very often, and I’ve not been interested in a game in the Legend of Zelda franchise since Ocarina of Time.

Someone suggested I pick up this latest game they had made. And one of the few types of video games I enjoy are open world sandbox games where the player can go all over the place and complete missions whenever they want etc.

To say I’m absolutely floored by this new game of there is an understatement. I’ve not been pulled into a video game world like this since Red Dead 2 or maybe GTA V. I will play the game for 14 hours and it feels like an hour or so. I just get so beautifully errant in this game.

I seriously can’t believe this game is this good. I was borderline giving Zelda fans flack for obsessing over the franchise and then this game comes out…

Totally agree. Might be my favorite game ever. I got it about two years ago and still pick it up and play and explore areas. The scenery makes the game more relaxing for me. I just lent it to a friend so figure I won’t get it back for quite a while:)

[Phil]

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

Why isn't it 105 F in Seattle at the same time?

[MossMan]

Lovely evening! 47 degrees. 

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Requiem said:

https://twitter.com/JoshCozartWx/status/1664441718098505729?s=20

Nice to end the "will it be a bad fire season?" suspense so early in the game!

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

My guess would be a snowcover-assisted inversion.

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z GFS was pretty decent. 

[Omegaraptor]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

WINNEMUCCA got 0.2" of accumulating snow on 6/7/2020!

[Phil]

Continued #blessings for CA/SW states.

[ShawniganLake]

Started a summer forecast competition thread so everyone can show off their forecasting skillz 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another morning on the cool side here. 44 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Continued #blessings for CA/SW states.

Swaying and then pulsating cold anomalies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

At this point I’d take a cooler summer in exchange for a more mildish winter. Compared to most of the country a hot summer in the PNW isn’t terrible from a comfort standpoint…but still not a fan of consistent 80s and 90s. Much prefer the morning clouds and 70s. 

Looks like you just fell into tim

logic about our hot summers being grand by comparison. I guess down on the water that is true. 

[TT-SEA]

Some serious east coast troughing on the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z EPS by day 10.    

[MossMan]

Had a low of 42. Low 40’s for lows all this week if memory serves me correctly. 
I had a dream early this morning that it got down to 2 degrees and my veggie garden was not happy. 

[MossMan]

The Fuzz…

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The Fuzz…

You think it might snow? 

 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You think it might snow? 

 

Snow will arrive... eventually.  

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like you just fell into tim

logic about our hot summers being grand by comparison. I guess down on the water that is true. 

Lol all I’m sayin…is that in terms of comfort hot weather in the PNW is not nearly as bad as down in the south with their humidity. Definitely don’t enjoy hot summers here either. 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You think it might snow? 

 

It Willarrive. 

[GHweatherChris]

4th consecutive morning with a low in the mid 30's, had a touch of frost yesterday, just amazing!!

[High Desert Mat?]

17 hours ago, Phil said:

Warm and dry, maybe a wet start.

Dangerous to bet against the ECMWF/EPS. Pattern change is probably rushed on some of the other guidance.

The EPS timing actually lines up better with what you’d expect from the MJO/subseasonal forcing(s).

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Hoping there are exceptions to the rule I guess. Like ‘68-‘69. I could live with that one. 

[Phil]

It can still happen!

https://twitter.com/kairokiitsak/status/1664486653191241728?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

57 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Hoping there are exceptions to the rule I guess. Like ‘68-‘69. I could live with that one. 

I’d argue there is no rule. Have always hated those maps depicting the “canonical” Niño/Niña patterns, as if they are inherent properties of ENSO. It doesn’t actually work that way.

[Phil]

My comment re: winter 2023/24 was somewhat tongue in cheek, in case that wasn’t clear.

Warm/dry winter may be statistically favored, but that doesn’t preclude cold periods on a subseasonal scale. Too early to make detailed LR forecasts.

[the_convergence_zone]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d argue there is no rule. Have always hated those maps depicting the “canonical” Niño/Niña patterns, as if they are inherent properties of ENSO. It doesn’t actually work that way.

ENSO explains about 1/3 of the variance in winter temperatures and precipitation on the west coast. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

It can still happen!

https://twitter.com/kairokiitsak/status/1664486653191241728?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Meanwhile China is suffering record heat with 100+ temps. 

[Eugene-5SW]

In the "silver lining" department, my neighbor's clear cut erupted with daisies. Not sure if they're native, but they're sure pretty.

[Phil]

EPS upgrade scheduled for 6/27! Will be 101 ensemble members (currently 52) and the “weeklies” will run every day.

Gonna be lit.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

In the "silver lining" department, my neighbor's clear cut erupted with daisies. Not sure if they're native, but they're sure pretty.

Chrysanthemum leucanthemum, ox-eye daisy. Not native.

[GobBluth]

Impressively suppressed ridging on both the GFS and CMC long term.

[YahRaEl]

As of 1040 am

Fife 63°

 

Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop 60°

 

EQC/Port of Tacoma 61°

 

Salishan 60°

 

Portland Ave/72nd St. 61°

 

45th/McKinley Ave  61°

 

Lakewood Central(Town Center) 59°

 

Spanaway 63°

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

As of 1040 am

Fife 63°

 

Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop 60°

 

EQC/Port of Tacoma 61°

 

Salishan 60°

 

Portland Ave/72nd St. 61°

 

45th/McKinley Ave  61°

 

Lakewood Central(Town Center) 59°

 

Spanaway 63°

60 here on the west side. 

[Phil]

SW US is an island oasis on the 12z CMC ensembles.

[Slushy Inch]

Euro is looking toasty starting Tuesday. And at least mountain convection later on.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day.

[Omegaraptor]

Euro sticking to its guns. 80s straight through the end of the run.

[Cloud]

21 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF did not even show any low clouds or organized marine layer for the next 10 days.   Pretty unusual at this time of year.

Maybe it’s just me but it does seems/feels like our marine layer around here is gone in recent years for this time of year. I think this type of weather is usually morning clouds, then burn off in the afternoon for sunshine in the 70s. Right now, we’re going into the 70s with wire to wire sunshine.
 

Also the fog, we don’t have many foggy days anymore, not really counting the inversions. Seems unusual, but may just be the new trend, weather going forward. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Maybe it’s just me but it does seems/feels like our marine layer around here is gone in recent years for this time of year. I think this type of weather is usually morning clouds, then burn off in the afternoon for sunshine in the 70s. Right now, we’re going into the 70s with wire to wire sunshine.
 

Also the fog, we don’t have many foggy days anymore, not really counting the inversions. Seems unusual, but may just be the new trend, weather going forward. 

We had 2-3 days of that in the last week or so - it was perfection. I also don't mind these wire-to-wire days as long as it's not 70 by 10 am and cools off at night.