Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No rain since May 15. Devastating. 

Length of dry season is what concerns me the most. It seems like roughly May 10th is going to end up being the start of dry season in the Seattle area (if you use a vague definition of "first extended sunny/dry period after the last widespread soaking rain"). In 2022 by the same definition you would probably say June 20.

So we need rainy season to start by September 10 in the fall to avoid having a longer dry season than 2022.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Quite a warm EPS run.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I know there’s an El Niño for this upcoming winter but since the La Nina’s the past three years haven’t exactly planned out just like typical La Nina’s, any very early guesses on the winter weather coming up in a few months? Just curious to what you guys think since this weather is sooooo boring. 

Warm and dry, maybe a wet start.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 12Z runs of the ECMWF/EPS/control run all trended more ridgy in the mid range compared to the runs yesterday.

Dangerous to bet against the ECMWF/EPS. Pattern change is probably rushed on some of the other guidance.

The EPS timing actually lines up better with what you’d expect from the MJO/subseasonal forcing(s).

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Quite a warm EPS run.

I predict our next rain around November 12th or so.

[Phil]

Smothered in smoke again. Has to be something nearby because I can smell it.

Edit: NJ apparently. Strange wind pattern this year.

[Phil]

Another potent MJO thru W-Hem/ATL/W-IO on the new EPS weeklies. Just as ISM is initiating and pattern responses are changing.

Prepare for model chaos.

[Phil]

Also, with -NAM projected across guidance (Beaufort sea ridge in particular) the STJ is basically the only defined upper level NPAC jet west of the dateline by mid-June.

Good luck trying to statistically model that one!

[Phil]

Judah is on board! Related to the final warming perhaps?

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1664308075145117697?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Quite a warm EPS run.

12Z ECMWF did not even show any low clouds or organized marine layer for the next 10 days.   Pretty unusual at this time of year.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF did not even show any low clouds or organized marine layer for the next 10 days.   Pretty unusual at this time of year.

Certainly surprised that no low clouds are expected over next the couple days that stay cool.

[Tyler Mode]

37.7 this morning.  Good enough to set a June record (since 2011)

[Anti Marine Layer]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Judah is on board! Related to the final warming perhaps?

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1664308075145117697?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Can you add the Phil Forecast Model to Tropical Tidbits?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Crazy that we didn't manage a regional snowstorm with this pattern. Overall tho, the region did good.

But we did get a regionwide ice storm!

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF weeklies... hot off the press.    It shows it staying generally warm through the middle of July.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

New month and I totally forgot about the new thread. 68F and absolutely gorgeous today.

Been posting less today because I have to make a confession…

I don’t play video games very often, and I’ve not been interested in a game in the Legend of Zelda franchise since Ocarina of Time.

Someone suggested I pick up this latest game they had made. And one of the few types of video games I enjoy are open world sandbox games where the player can go all over the place and complete missions whenever they want etc.

To say I’m absolutely floored by this new game of there is an understatement. I’ve not been pulled into a video game world like this since Red Dead 2 or maybe GTA V. I will play the game for 14 hours and it feels like an hour or so. I just get so beautifully errant in this game.

I seriously can’t believe this game is this good. I was borderline giving Zelda fans flack for obsessing over the franchise and then this game comes out…

[DareDuck]

4 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I know there’s an El Niño for this upcoming winter but since the La Nina’s the past three years haven’t exactly planned out just like typical La Nina’s, any very early guesses on the winter weather coming up in a few months? Just curious to what you guys think since this weather is sooooo boring. 

I bet we (as in central OR) have less total snow and snow events than last winter, but wouldn’t be surprised if we get a larger storm than we’ve seen the last few years. 

[Phil]

Wish this could hold all summer.

[Cold Snap]

Looks like a stage 1 burn ban was issued for king county.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies... hot off the press.    It shows it staying generally warm through the middle of July.

Worth noting previous EPS weeklies missed the cold SW US in the 3+ week range, so I’d be cautious in interpreting that map.

[MV_snow]

Pulled off a 67/40 spread today… pretty impressive chilliness for a day with wall to wall sunshine. I thought it might have dragged Jim back to the forum but I guess not yet. It’s been hard to pull off a sub-70 high in JJA with no low clouds.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Worth noting previous EPS weeklies missed the cold SW US in the 3+ week range, so I’d be cautious in interpreting that map.

Obviously.   

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

My guess is warmer and maybe a bit wetter than last year. But not necessarily a wet year either. Don’t think we see any great lowland winter weather events west of the mountains but will be better east of the mountains per the norm. 

Going by recent history, you all should be rooting for a scorcher of a summer. 2015 aside, most good winters have followed.

[Phil]

Hi El Niño, we missed you.  

[ChristheElohim]

Topped out 68° in the Salishan part of Eastside Tacoma today. Station down EQC made it to 70° and 66° at another station up by Portland Ave/72nd St.

71° at my cousin's neighborhood in Spanaway.

68° KTCM(McChord AFB)

66° Downtown Tacoma-Hilltop.

70° Lakewood Central(Town Center)

 

 

 

 

[TacomaWx]

34 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Going by recent history, you all should be rooting for a scorcher of a summer. 2015 aside, most good winters have followed.

At this point I’d take a cooler summer in exchange for a more mildish winter. Compared to most of the country a hot summer in the PNW isn’t terrible from a comfort standpoint…but still not a fan of consistent 80s and 90s. Much prefer the morning clouds and 70s. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Hi El Niño, we missed you.  

Warm is negative. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty day here. Chilly start, then some clouds and a mostly sunny afternoon. 71/41 spread.

 

[Requiem]

https://twitter.com/JoshCozartWx/status/1664441718098505729?s=20

[Cascadia_Wx]

GFS looks pretty variable the first 7-10 days of June, but the 12z Euro and EPS were just downright depressing today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

29 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

GFS looks pretty variable the first 7-10 days of June, but the 12z Euro and EPS were just downright depressing today.

Come on down here. No sun since May 22. You would absolutely love it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Wish this could hold all summer.

[jcmcgaffey]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

New month and I totally forgot about the new thread. 68F and absolutely gorgeous today.

Been posting less today because I have to make a confession…

I don’t play video games very often, and I’ve not been interested in a game in the Legend of Zelda franchise since Ocarina of Time.

Someone suggested I pick up this latest game they had made. And one of the few types of video games I enjoy are open world sandbox games where the player can go all over the place and complete missions whenever they want etc.

To say I’m absolutely floored by this new game of there is an understatement. I’ve not been pulled into a video game world like this since Red Dead 2 or maybe GTA V. I will play the game for 14 hours and it feels like an hour or so. I just get so beautifully errant in this game.

I seriously can’t believe this game is this good. I was borderline giving Zelda fans flack for obsessing over the franchise and then this game comes out…

Totally agree. Might be my favorite game ever. I got it about two years ago and still pick it up and play and explore areas. The scenery makes the game more relaxing for me. I just lent it to a friend so figure I won’t get it back for quite a while:)

[Phil]

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

Why isn't it 105 F in Seattle at the same time?

[MossMan]

Lovely evening! 47 degrees. 

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Requiem said:

https://twitter.com/JoshCozartWx/status/1664441718098505729?s=20

Nice to end the "will it be a bad fire season?" suspense so early in the game!

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

My guess would be a snowcover-assisted inversion.

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z GFS was pretty decent. 

[Omegaraptor]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

-40°F departures in NV in the clown range.  

WINNEMUCCA got 0.2" of accumulating snow on 6/7/2020!

[Phil]

Continued #blessings for CA/SW states.

[ShawniganLake]

Started a summer forecast competition thread so everyone can show off their forecasting skillz 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another morning on the cool side here. 44 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Continued #blessings for CA/SW states.

Swaying and then pulsating cold anomalies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

At this point I’d take a cooler summer in exchange for a more mildish winter. Compared to most of the country a hot summer in the PNW isn’t terrible from a comfort standpoint…but still not a fan of consistent 80s and 90s. Much prefer the morning clouds and 70s. 

Looks like you just fell into tim

logic about our hot summers being grand by comparison. I guess down on the water that is true. 

[TT-SEA]

Some serious east coast troughing on the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z EPS by day 10.    

[MossMan]

Had a low of 42. Low 40’s for lows all this week if memory serves me correctly. 
I had a dream early this morning that it got down to 2 degrees and my veggie garden was not happy. 

[MossMan]

The Fuzz…

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The Fuzz…

You think it might snow? 

 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You think it might snow? 

 

Snow will arrive... eventually.  

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like you just fell into tim

logic about our hot summers being grand by comparison. I guess down on the water that is true. 

Lol all I’m sayin…is that in terms of comfort hot weather in the PNW is not nearly as bad as down in the south with their humidity. Definitely don’t enjoy hot summers here either.