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June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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18z ensembles have suddenly trended cooler again.

That D3-5 shortwave over the NE-Pacific has bounced around over 500 collective miles since the 06Z run.

 

For whatever reason, this pattern is breaking the back of the GFS suite.

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The weekend curse is back on after taking a wonderful break over the holiday weekend.

 

The crash comes fast tomorrow and Sunday starts showery and clearing is slow.    Need more days like today on the weekend.   And it looks like next weekend might be the same.    Maybe have to book another trip for next weekend... could still be early enough for that to bring it around.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Peak daytime hours looks to involve great weather this weekend!! Perfect!

 

Indeed... you are the lucky one with rain and clouds by mid afternoon tomorrow!    Very jealous.   ;)

 

1ref_t1sfc_f22.png

 

 

 

00Z GFS says its in the 50s there by 4 p.m... perfect July afternoon.  

 

1594508400-SffUl1YGHLU.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Indeed... you are the lucky one with rain and clouds by mid afternoon tomorrow! Very jealous. ;)

 

1ref_t1sfc_f22.png

 

 

 

00Z GFS says its in the 50s there by 4 p.m... perfect July afternoon.

 

1594508400-SffUl1YGHLU.png

Hopefully I can sneak in a mow before the rains tomorrow.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The quicker speed has resulted in some improvements for Sunday though.   The 00Z ECMWF shows the low clouds break up pretty quickly in the morning and the afternoon might be pretty decent... maybe low 70s in the Seattle area.   Below normal but not too bad.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sprinkles at most.

 

Windy with temps in the 50s with clouds and some rain definitely earns the exclamation points for a July afternoon... but probably not for your reason.    That is about as bad as it gets for the middle of summer.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And Monday looks like a repeat of today.    A perfect Friday and Monday... of course.    Nature has a sense of humor this summer.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Randy... skip work on Tuesday and get to the lake!    Its looks spectacular.     One of the best days of the summer so far.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We have seen it happen multiple times.

 

I am sure it will be perfect to you even if its 58 and raining.     Its a July weekend... what more can you ask for?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Why does it matter to you? You ran to Idaho for good weather.

 

Actually did not do it for the weather... it was perfect at home today and I knew that would be the case when we left.     Did it for my daughter who was going stir crazy.   She loves water parks.     Our options in WA are closed.  

 

Anyways... you were the one exclaiming excitement about the weather this weekend.   That is really stretching it even for you.   At least for tomorrow.    That is referred to as 'putting lipstick on a pig'.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF shows some rain and cooler temps on Thursday... but its beautiful again on Friday and into the weekend.    That would be really nice.   GFS is not nearly as optimistic though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF shows some rain and cooler temps on Thursday... but its beautiful again on Friday and into the weekend. That would be really nice. GFS is not nearly as optimistic though.

Well, the GFS has been trash lately. So you’re probably good.

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Well, the GFS has been trash lately. So you’re probably good.

 

ECMWF has not been much better... it seems to be swinging wildly lately after day 5.    More so than usual.  

 

I won't have any confidence in a sunny, warmer than normal weekend until maybe 2 or 3 days out at this point.   It does not seem possible this summer.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Actually did not do it for the weather... it was perfect at home today and I knew that would be the case when we left. Did it for my daughter who was going stir crazy. She loves water parks. Our options in WA are closed.

 

Anyways... you were the one exclaiming excitement about the weather this weekend. That is really stretching it even for you. At least for tomorrow. That is referred to as 'putting lipstick on a pig'. ;)

We shall see.

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You aren’t hating the upcoming weather enough. Shame!

 

I don't care if he loves rain and cold in July... but I don't think he does based on a decade of knowing him.    I would never doubt you being genuinely happy about it.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just realized its our anniversary next weekend... better book some reservations to nudge nature in the ECMWF direction.   My wife loves warm, sunny weekends in the summer.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We shall see.

Sunday will be decent enough. But probably not exclamation point worthy for us unless our standards are very low for July!!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sort of have the 00Z EPS on board for next weekend too. At least the late week trough is shifting eastward then.

It’s actually retrograding westward.

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Actually did not do it for the weather... it was perfect at home today and I knew that would be the case when we left. Did it for my daughter who was going stir crazy. She loves water parks. Our options in WA are closed.

 

Anyways... you were the one exclaiming excitement about the weather this weekend. That is really stretching it even for you. At least for tomorrow. That is referred to as 'putting lipstick on a pig'. ;)

Wait, who is the one that is obsessed with other people’s weather preferences?

 

I forgot...

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Wait, who is the one that is obsessed with other people’s weather preferences?

 

I forgot...

Not me.

 

This has nothing to do with preferences.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It’s actually retrograding westward.

Not next weekend... I am just hoping for a warmer than normal weekend for a change and not talking about the big picture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not next weekend... I am just hoping for a warmer than normal weekend for a change and not talking about the big picture.

Yeah, next weekend. It’s retrograding west at that time.

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