June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

La Nina watch has been officially issued for this coming winter. 

 

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/skiers-rejoice-la-nina-watch-issued-for-upcoming-winter

It ain’t official until it’s Komofficial.

[Front Ranger]

This was last year on 7/18...

 

 

POLAR VORTEX.

[Jesse]

Screenshot from hour 144 of the 12z Euro (next Wednesday morning)

 

 

Just love the look of this pattern in the summer, with heat being kept at bay across the entire northern tier of the lower 48 by a sprawling area of low heights over Canada.

[TT-SEA]

POLAR VORTEX.

It rained for about 3 days straight with that mess... while it was sunny in Portland.

 

Looking much better this July... at least for now.

[Omegaraptor]

Screenshot from hour 144 of the 12z Euro (next Wednesday morning)

4C05D4BD-F7C0-4530-8363-91689B1621F2.png

Just love the look of this pattern in the summer, with heat being kept at bay across the entire northern tier of the lower 48 by a sprawling area of low heights over Canada.

Midwest getting a much needed break from the heat.

 

Here’s Minneapolis so far this month... +7.4 departure. Tropical.

 

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Which means it’s bottled up down here.

 

This run shows you getting a decent break early next week.

[Phil]

This run shows you getting a decent break early next week.

Unfortunately the mountains block it, verbatim. Which is climo, but still..ugh.

 

I knew we’d pay dearly for that beautifully chilly April/May.

[Jesse]

Will be sort of interesting to see how warm PDX gets the next two days. After that it is starting to look like another lengthy stretch without a lot of opportunity for 80s.

[Phil]

Will be sort of interesting to see how warm PDX gets the next two days. After that it is starting to look like another lengthy stretch without a lot of opportunity for 80s.

I’d hedge towards the cool side of guidance so long as subsidence holds firm over the WPAC. That’s been the theme so far this year.

[Jesse]

I’d hedge towards the cool side of guidance so long as subsidence holds firm over the WPAC. That’s been the theme so far this year.

 

Yeah, it feels weird saying not a lot of opportunity for 80s heading solidly into mid-July.  Usually at this point I am just hoping to avoid 90. Seems like something's gotta give eventually, but this pattern has been persistent and looks to persist that way for now.

 

Even I wouldn't mind seeing some 90+ days or even an actual heatwave this month, just to give it some dynamism and variety. Although given the last several years I should probably be careful what I wish for. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

lol, that’s another one that gets me fired up! 20 miles away they get hammered and we get warm rain

It is fascinating the diverse ways we all get snow around the Sound though. Is what it is.

One of the reasons why we need a good ol' fashion Arctic Blast this winter, not of the marginal stuff where the lower elevations get cold rain.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I just like that it's old school. Our summers used to be cooler and very dry. My only complaint about this pattern is the nights haven't been quite as cool as they could be if some small details were just a bit different. Basically if it's dry in the summer I'm happy, but being enjoyably cool is a nice plus.

I remember you mentioning this before. I wouldn't mind cool and dry summers as long as there's plenty of sun.

[Blizzard777]

LOTS of partly to mostly sunny days in the 70s on tap.

 

Hope we are all strong enough to get through it.

Just like the environment inside my house!!!

Acclimation chamber no longer needed 

[Blizzard777]

One of the reasons why we need a good ol' fashion Arctic Blast this winter, not of the marginal stuff where the lower elevations get cold rain.

Bring it on !!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I've got a great gut feeling right now about DJF.

 

Ditto. Just feels like a big one is brewing this year.

[Phil]

I've got a great gut feeling right now about DJF.

Yep, lots of potential out West again. Last winter could’ve been amazing too had the super-PV been avoided. Singlehandedly destroyed and pulverized what might have been the mother of all Januaries.

 

Meanwhile, I already expect another dud winter here. The really bad ones usually come in bunches of two or three. This year feels similar to 2010/11/12, which were abysmal.

[Jesse]

Yep, lots of potential out West again. Last winter could’ve been amazing too had the super-PV been avoided. Singlehandedly destroyed what might have been the mother of all Januaries.

 

Meanwhile, I already expect another dud winter here. The really bad ones usually come in bunches of two or three. This year feels similar to 2010 or 2011.

 

[Deweydog]

Holy !

[Phil]

I’m deadass. The in-situ boundary conditions were excellent heading into the holiday season. Literally was a fluky TPV entrappment over the Beaufort that allowed for the vertical stacking/baratropic transition, which subsequently stabilized the tropics, reinforcing the +ENSO/weak WC low frequency regime that would’ve otherwise broken.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Figures the one summer I don’t visit up there is the awesome one. Still haven’t gotten the chance to experience a trough in the PNW.

[TacomaWaWx]

Figures the one summer I don’t visit up there is the awesome one. Still haven’t gotten the chance to experience a trough in the PNW.

Didn’t you visit last summer? 2019 was a pretty nice summer as well.

[FroYoBro]

Figures the one summer I don’t visit up there is the awesome one. Still haven’t gotten the chance to experience a trough in the PNW.

Clouds.

[TacomaWaWx]

68 with some sunbreaks. Looks like we will hit 70 today.

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

Didn’t you visit last summer? 2019 was a pretty nice summer as well.

Late July/early August. I recall transient upper level ridging being present when I was there.

 

Was beautiful still. But I was hoping for a nice ULL or marine layer. Just to see what it’s like.

[Jesse]

Late July/early August. I recall transient upper level ridging being present when I was there.

Was beautiful still. But I was hoping for a nice ULL or marine layer. Just to see what it’s like.

Pleasant.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

72F and clouding up now. Can see much thicker clouds to the NW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just started raining. My daughter noticed, squealed with delight and ran outside.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looked up 1955-56 at Silver Falls. Incredibly wet October-January. A little above average in February and March. Single digit lows in November, December, January, and February. Last time that location had a single digit low was December 2013.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah Nov 55 looks like it was a lot of fun down this way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah Nov 55 looks like it was a lot of fun down this way.

All time November records for most places in the Willamette Valley.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still at -1F departure for the month. Last 2 days were a bit above normal but I doubt we get to 79F today and we were also at 51F this morning so likely a below normal day today. 

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Looked up 1955-56 at Silver Falls. Incredibly wet October-January. A little above average in February and March. Single digit lows in November, December, January, and February. Last time that location had a single digit low was December 2013.

Would love to relive a good old fashioned PNW winter like that in my lifetime.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Phil]

Would love to relive a good old fashioned PNW winter like that in my lifetime.

You might get to do exactly that this winter.

[Front Ranger]

Would love to relive a good old fashioned PNW winter like that in my lifetime.

2016-17 was better in some ways for western OR.