June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

July has been about four degrees below average so far.

 

-1.4F here so definitely different than the past several years so far.

[TT-SEA]

64 and partly sunny here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like K12. He is humble and open to learning.

 

Needs to gain some confidence, good lord. Seeking constant validation on an online weather forum is not healthy. We should all know. 

[Timmy Supercell]

My place could be looking at two straight summers in a row averaging out either normal or below. JJA at KLMT was only +0.5 degree over (pretty much normal) and this one may end somewhere below normal.

 

Also two July's in a row below normal. I had -1.0 Mean last July! Unless we get an impressive late month heat wave...

[BLI snowman]

+QBO/-ENSO w/ a well defined IO —> EHEM/IP standing wave should certainly increase the chances of that.

 

Would like to see more WPAC cooling, but that’ll probably happen with time if cool ENSO climatology has anything to say about it.

 

Still a lot of stubborn warmth in Region 4/3.4. Subsurface has warmed a bit as well. I think anything more than a lower end moderate Nina will be tough.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Needs to gain some confidence, good lord. Seeking constant validation on an online weather forum is not healthy. We should all know. 

 

I was like him in high school and college. Low confidence and few social skills because of a severe spectrum disorder (not saying he has one).

 

I learned pretty much all of my social skills from my fraternity brothers. I was somehow discovered and helped by guys in the dorm and they saw some sort of potential in me to want me to rush and help save the dying fraternity on campus.

 

We were successful, and had the best GPA on campus. Some of the Greek folks derisively called us the nerd frat and Phi Kappa ***** because we were very accepting of gay men. It was also awesome because many of these men were very popular on campus with a lot of girls, and I mean a lot. I never imagined a situation where I could watch and learn those social/courtship skills from a bunch of alpha males who openly taught me how to stand taller and make myself appear more comfortable in conversation and discourse. They also couldn't believe my savant-like understanding of sports and passion for weather.

 

Everything was going wonderfully, I graduated and was headed to my first job and had lots of interviews for state jobs lined up and then...boom. Slapped with epilepsy and began a roller-coaster trajectory with a mostly downward trend with lots of corkscrews and confusion.

 

I am sympathetic to folks who also struggle with self-confidence and/or health issues and I'm grateful y'all have helped me stay more positive regarding the weather and life in general.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF trended even nicer for the weekend... Sunday is almost as warm as Saturday with just a few showers overnight into early Sunday morning.

 

Anecdotally... it appears that my east side reservation method is working like a charm again.   We had booked Couer D'Alene for the weekend of the 4th as a back up plan and it ended up being way too nice here.   Then I moved that trip to this weekend because the models were showing it being quite rainy and chilly here.   Now it looks really nice.   I am just going to go ahead and book reservations for every weekend through September now.    You are welcome, Randy and Hawkstwelve.   

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Euro shows a generally below average pattern continuing.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also quite a bit warmer for Monday and Tuesday compared to its 00Z run.

[Deweydog]

Conflicting reports!!!

[MossMan]

We can always count on Tim’s reservations to get summer kick started! If Tim has to quarantine at some point this summer we are all screwed (except for Andrew and Jesse)

[Front Ranger]

The weekend curse that never ends. 

[Jesse]

Looks like another nice trough about to drop down on us at hour 168 of the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

Conflicting reports!!!

Not really.... it can be a little cooler than normal and still warmer and drier than the 00Z run.

[Deweydog]

Deconflicted reports!!!

[Front Ranger]

Reporting conflicts.

[Deweydog]

Block is too far west at 192. Ugh.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

Block is too far west at 192. Ugh.

Perhaps we will still have some backdoor action.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Perhaps we will still have some backdoor action.

 

Blast it over the mountains.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was like him in high school and college. Low confidence and few social skills because of a severe spectrum disorder (not saying he has one).

 

I learned pretty much all of my social skills from my fraternity brothers. I was somehow discovered and helped by guys in the dorm and they saw some sort of potential in me to want me to rush and help save the dying fraternity on campus.

 

We were successful, and had the best GPA on campus. Some of the Greek folks derisively called us the nerd frat and Phi Kappa ***** because we were very accepting of gay men. It was also awesome because many of these men were very popular on campus with a lot of girls, and I mean a lot. I never imagined a situation where I could watch and learn those social/courtship skills from a bunch of alpha males who openly taught me how to stand taller and make myself appear more comfortable in conversation and discourse. They also couldn't believe my savant-like understanding of sports and passion for weather.

 

Everything was going wonderfully, I graduated and was headed to my first job and had lots of interviews for state jobs lined up and then...boom. Slapped with epilepsy and began a roller-coaster trajectory with a mostly downward trend with lots of corkscrews and confusion.

 

I am sympathetic to folks who also struggle with self-confidence and/or health issues and I'm grateful y'all have helped me stay more positive regarding the weather and life in general.

That’s good.

[Phil]

Still a lot of stubborn warmth in Region 4/3.4. Subsurface has warmed a bit as well. I think anything more than a lower end moderate Nina will be tough.

Those are usually last to cool, though. And subsurface warming isn’t surprising at this point in the KW cycle.

 

That said, I agree a strong niña is less likely at this point. There’s an inertial component to the ocean-atmosphere system. However, that doesn’t mean the ET atmosphere/wavetrain won’t resemble a more coherent event.

[Phil]

Euro shows a generally below average pattern continuing.

This is the correct analysis.

 

Much preferable to subjective stuff like “nice” and “summerlike”, which can mean anything to anyone.

[Kayla]

Love seeing the highest probability of below average temps right over my area. Keep it up guys, you're doing great!!

 

[TT-SEA]

This is the correct analysis.

 

Much preferable to subjective stuff like “nice” and “summerlike”, which can mean anything to anyone.

Means a great deal to some of us who live here. Does not impact you though.

[Timmy Supercell]

This last weeks highs/lows at KLMT

(departure from normal lows in parenthesis)

 

07/01 - 76/34 (-12)

07/02 - 80/32 (-16)

07/03 - 81/42 (-5)

07/04 - 79/41 (-6)

07/05 - 82/39 (-8)

07/06 - 82/39 (-8)

07/07 - 75/35 (-12)

 

July 1-7 2020

Mean = 58.4 (-5.5)

High = 79.3 (-1.7)

Low = 37.4 (-9.3)

 

Making July cool again! 

[Requiem]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I don’t care for the shadow when snow is possible but works in my favor during these sorts of days.

In winter I'd like to experience the snow you guys get up there around Hood Canal when cold air is able to bank up against the Olympics. I heard somebody refer to it as similar to the Forest Grove effect down here but on steroids.

[Timmy Supercell]

This is the correct analysis.

 

Much preferable to subjective stuff like “nice” and “summerlike”, which can mean anything to anyone.

 

People hated summer 2019, and it was statistically the nicest summer of the whole decade.

[MossMan]

People hated summer 2019, and it was statistically the nicest summer of the whole decade.

I enjoyed last summer.

[Requiem]

People hated summer 2019, and it was statistically the nicest summer of the whole decade.

I loved summer 2019. Perfect mix of warmth and stormy conditions. Really was an enjoyable season.

[Timmy Supercell]

I enjoyed last summer.

 

Most of us including me on this forum enjoyed it. But folks over on facebook had different opinions.

 

One guy used "the rivers were cold" as a measure for summer being nice or bad. So much more to do in the PNW lol

[Requiem]

Oh, for the rest of you— I understand that previously my actions on this forum were viewed as annoying, and for good reason. But I’d like to think I’ve improved, so just call me out if I’m being annoying or something. But not without any warrant.

 

Anyways, pleasant out there. Love how it hasn’t been too hot lately.

[TT-SEA]

Most of us including me on this forum enjoyed it. But folks over on facebook had different opinions.

 

One guy used "the rivers were cold" as a measure for summer being nice or bad. So much more to do in the PNW lol

Everyone has their own wish list... its very subjective.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s nice to be constantly complained about by a person who doesn’t seem to ever have a stable opinion, but y’all do you ‍♀

 

My opinion of you has remained consistent. You seem like a nice kiddo. 

[Requiem]

My opinion of you has remained consistent. You seem like a nice kiddo.

 

I apologize for biting back a bit. What you said was partially true though— I am in the process of trying to improve my own confidence without relying on validation from others. Anyways, no hard feelings, I hope I’m no longer an annoying poster.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I apologize for biting back a bit. What you said was partially true though— I am in the process of trying to improve my own confidence without relying on validation from others. Anyways, no hard feelings, I hope I’m no longer an annoying poster.

 

It's all good. It is something many of us struggle with, or have at one time. 

[MossMan]

I apologize for biting back a bit. What you said was partially true though— I am in the process of trying to improve my own confidence without relying on validation from others. Anyways, no hard feelings, I hope I’m no longer an annoying poster.

I’m hoping for a October 1962, November 1985, December 2008, a late December 1949 thru early February 1950, and a February 2019 redux! I think only you and I would enjoy a 10/12/62 repeat.