July 2023 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

Storm centered across Central Chester County this AM dropped over 1" of rain is spots with very little rain across both Northern and Southern Chesco. Rain chances will continue over the next couple days before we dry out for the weekend. Warming trend next week and we may actually see some pretty hot temps with almost all spots exceeding 90 degrees possible in about one weeks time.

Records for today: High 99 (1930) / Low 51 (1924) / Rain 1.82" (1919)

[Black Hole]

Still looking like a niceish cooldown Friday-Saturday with dew points dropping but I am afraid longer term heat builds in after that as others have noted. Looks like a hot finish for the month. 

[CentralNebWeather]

More rain this morning. Forecast says more tonight and tomorrow. Mowing services are having a heck of a time this year getting the mowing done. Almost every morning this summer has heavy dew, fog, or mist. Some are trying to wait until the afternoons. Like today, I don’t think it will ever completely dry out.

[mhou]

Woke up 5am this morning with some crazy thunder and lightning.  Might see more of that later today.

[OKwx2k4]

Days like today make me want to tell forecasters that heat index and real temps are not the same. It doesn't matter what it feels like, 93 isn't 99.

That's a blown forecast by a mile.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Days like today make me want to tell forecasters that heat index and real temps are not the same. It doesn't matter what it feels like, 93 isn't 99.

That's a blown forecast by a mile.

Well, it made up for Yesterday breaking 100

[Andie]

106*  Gang!!

Lets strip down and play naked volleyball!   That’ll last 5 minutes.   
Just enough time for the ambulances to get here!!

Feels like temp:   Hel !!

Seriously, everything is trying to die.  
Ground extremely hot, air extremely hot. This puts a huge pressure on everything trying to survive.  
cattle, horses, wildlife.   
I put water out but I think they’ve hauled to the lake 1/4 mi away.  

[james1976]

Currently in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch up here at the MN home! Line of storms getting going in central MN. Had a small thundershower early this morning that only dropped .07"

[Andie]

Share James !!

I just heard of a large grass fire in North Ft. Worth.  It doesn’t threaten me.  But these people are battling this in their fire gear in 106* weather.  
Ya gotta love firemen.  I’ve known a few and they’re all heart. Tough. But heart.  

What concerns me is summer is only half over here. We could see heat through September.  Easily.  I don’t see how it will ease in Texas soon. 
Do you? 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

12 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More rain this morning. Forecast says more tonight and tomorrow. Mowing services are having a heck of a time this year getting the mowing done. Almost every morning this summer has heavy dew, fog, or mist. Some are trying to wait until the afternoons. Like today, I don’t think it will ever completely dry out.

That reminds me of 2010 here. Crazy amounts of rain here,  60 to 75 inches! We were getting  mowers stuck daily. Couldn't  keep up with 50 lawns. Now for years it seems like a different  planet!  Almost  never too wet to mow, no standing  water. Grass growing a slow rates. Now we mow over 200! One is 60 acres.

[Black Hole]

The first map shows the pattern for this weekend, which is largely where we have been at for the summer so far. The 2nd image shows the forecast pattern, with the ridge flexing to the northeast. Heat builds across more of the country with presumably a reduction in rainfall.

For the southern plains this will be a hotter and drier pattern. I expect a lot less rain with dew points probably in the 50s-60s once this settles in. For the northern plains it'll be warmer too, but you have enough flow that periodic NW flow stuff will probably keep going. Not sure how long it holds or if we go back to the trough being further south at some point. 

[Black Hole]

I don't know enough about tropical stuff to say whether any would or should be favored, but with the ridge setting up that far north you do get some SE flow into TX. You would think the tropical risk might be a bit higher down there in a general sense given the flow direction. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[chescowxman]

Nice day today with high temps not too far from normal. Rain chances ramp up again toward tomorrow morning with some models showing another inch of rain for parts of the county. We should have a near perfect weekend with near normal temps for late July.

Records for today: High 99 (1930) / Low 48 (1966) / Rain 4.78" (1979)

[james1976]

Had a strong thunderstorm move through yesterday evening. Gusty wind and it downpoured briefly. Ended with 0.32"

[Clinton]

So it looks like it might get hot lol.

[Clinton]

11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I don't know enough about tropical stuff to say whether any would or should be favored, but with the ridge setting up that far north you do get some SE flow into TX. You would think the tropical risk might be a bit higher down there in a general sense given the flow direction. 

Gary Lezak has marked the TX/Louisiana boarder as a hot spot for tropical systems this season.  Seems to think there should be a big system there around the peak of hurricane season.

[CentralNebWeather]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

So it looks like it might get hot lol.

Our unbelievably wet and cool summer is about to come to a screeching halt. Rain is supposed to shut off. The irrigation season may finally have to start late next week. 

 

[Andie]

19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Gary Lezak has marked the TX/Louisiana boarder as a hot spot for tropical systems this season.  Seems to think there should be a big system there around the peak of hurricane season.

That would be welcomed if it will push that heat dome out of town.  
It usually that’s a powerful low to kill our summers.  

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Our unbelievably wet and cool summer is about to come to a screeching halt. Rain is supposed to shut off. The irrigation season may finally have to start late next week. 

 

I didn't get as much rain over the last week as I had hoped, it won't take long for things to brown back up I could see some triple digits next week.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Andie said:

That would be welcomed if it will push that heat dome out of town.  
It usually that’s a powerful low to kill our summers.  

Lets hope for a peaceful soaker lol

[OKwx2k4]

On 7/19/2023 at 5:20 PM, Iceresistance said:

Well, it made up for Yesterday breaking 100

True, I suppose. 

There's a literal barrage of rain and cool weather headed in tonight through tomorrow. Will be a relief.

[CentralNebWeather]

Rain just beginning now. It is a little farther north than forecasted earlier. It has me in an area that could push 0.50”. Could be the last drink from Mother Nature for the foreseeable future. 

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Rain just beginning now. It is a little farther north than forecasted earlier. It has me in an area that could push 0.50”. Could be the last drink from Mother Nature for the foreseeable future. 

Thats encouraging for me that the rain is further north than what was modeled.  Hope I can get a drink before the heat builds in but I don't have a good feeling about it. 

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Thats encouraging for me that the rain is further north than what was modeled.  Hope I can get a drink before the heat builds in but I don't have a good feeling about it. 

I’m afraid it is going to go way west of you. It doesn’t look like the precipitation shield will go too far east of me, as it then begins to dive southeast. It is a nice moderate rain, straight down with no wind, thunder or lightning. 

[Tom]

@Black Hole, nice bowed MCS knocking on your door this morning....#Nature'sWakeUpCall

 

[Tom]

PHX set yet another record high of 119F this week..that makes 2 days this week...pretty remarkable stretch of Heat.  My goodness.  Oh, just a balmy 99F this morning...
 

[OKwx2k4]

My high 0f 79 for today was actually reached at midnight. Only forecast to reach 77 by afternoon. 

I can probably count on one hand the number of times that's happened in mid-late July. 

I'm going to enjoy this next two days before going right back in the furnace Monday.

[Clinton]

Beautiful day ahead today with the high expected to be in the low 80s.  Big time heat arrives next week!

[westMJim]

We are back from our trip to Put-in Bay Ohio. We did not have internet were we stayed so there were no post on my part. We had great weather on our trip with temperatures mostly in the low 80’s to upper 70’s there was a lot of smoke on Monday but the rest of the week was great. On the way back we ran into a very heavy rain storm just outside of Lansing. There was some wind and a few small branches were flying around. I did not see any lightning. The rain was gone by the time we were out of Lansing.   

We are now 20 days into July 2023 and here is a brief summary of the month so far. At Grand Rapids the mean of 71.3 is -1.5 the high for the month so far in 91 and the low is 55. There has been 3.48” of rain fall. At Lansing the mean is 72.8 that is +0.9 the high so far 92 and the low 56 they have recorded 5.07” of rain fall. Muskegon the mean is 71.8 that is +0.0 the high so far is 90 and the low is 56 and they recorded 2.90” of rain fall. At Holland the mean is 70.4 the highest reading so far is 91 and low so far is 54 and they have had 2.92” of rain fall. So once again Lansing is reading warmer than other locations in western Michigan. On the east side of the state Detroit and Saginaw are wetter and cooler than average while Flint is wetter and warmer than average. Over all a near average July in Michigan with 10 days to go.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 83/63 that is average for the date. There was 0.06” of rain fall and 78% of possible sunshine the highest wind was 43MHP out of the NW For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 104 was set in 1934 and the record low of 43 was set in 1944.

[chescowxman]

After our 0.65" of rain this morning we are now all the way back to 95% of normal year to date rainfall through today. A top 10 weather weekend on the way with sunny skies slightly below normal temps and relatively low humidity. A slow warming trend starts next week and we could see our 1st 90+ day here in East Nantmeal for the first time in more than 2 years by the end of the week!

[Clinton]

Catching the northern edge of a complex of rain, its keeping temperatures cool 66 this morning.

[CentralNebWeather]

The first true heat wave of the summer. That it doesn’t come until later in July will make it more bearable imo. I think it has only been above 90 degrees here a couple of times so far, which is very rare  

NWS Hastings morning disco:
 

“The ridge over the southwestern CONUS then expands northward Sunday into early next week, likely leading to our hottest temperatures of the summer so far. Most locations reach the 90s on Sunday, with gradual warming through Wednesday, when many spots could approach or exceed 100 degrees. If trends continue, heat headlines will be needed, especially for Tuesday/Wednesday when heat index values of 105+ are expected for much of the area. Although we cannot completely rule out some isolated thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday, there is not much of a coherent signal from global ensembles until a couple shortwaves move through the area Thursday/Friday timeframe.”

[Iceresistance]

I didn't even get a single drop of rain today, at least it's much cooler outside

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[OKwx2k4]

To say that I have been spoiled in relation to the rest of my state so far this summer is a massive understatement. Tied for fewest 90 degree highs is a great place to be.

Blessed. Very much.

[Black Hole]

Nice MCS this morning blew through. I ended up with more than most at 1.22". Had some decent winds and lightning for a while. Best of all though, still in the 70s out there!

[OKwx2k4]

20 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Nice MCS this morning blew through. I ended up with more than most at 1.22". Had some decent winds and lightning for a while. Best of all though, still in the 70s out there!

That's awesome. I had about half what you picked up. 

[Clinton]

CPC August outlook is nice, really hope it verifies.

[Andie]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

I’m afraid it’s just begun for the northern half of the Midwest.  
I’m sorry you have to cope with it. Most people expect that from Texas and Oklahoma but I fear this will reach into Michigan.  This thing has some surprises still.  Service your A/C. You’ll need it.