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July 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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My, oh my, I can't believe how fast this summer is "flying" on by.  As we approach the warmest parts of our Summer, it is becoming clearer to me that most of our Sub is NOT going to Fry this month.  It will be a big turn of events from the torchy periods we have experience over the past number of weeks, esp for the Upper MW/GL's folks.

Last 30 days...

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One thing that is for certain, is the amount of high lat blocking will place a strategic trough across the central CONUS, delivering a "RIPE" pattern for plenty of moisture.  As is always the case, during the summer rainy periods, nature has her way of spreading the wealth and there will be "Hav's and Have Not's".  I'm more optimistic than not that our farmers and members across the Plains/MW will see numerous bouts of storms this month.  

The CFSv2 is pretty much locked in...

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 0z GEFS...ya'll ready for a major pattern flip???

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/53 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 68% of the time. There was once again smoke in the air and the sky had a white look to it. For today the average H/L is 83/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1913 and the record low of 43 was set in 1943 the record rain fall amount of 2.08” fell in 1972.

At the current time it is cloudy with smoke in the air the 7 AM air quality was at 195 for Grand Rapids. The temperature in MBY is now at 66. To get the air quality for your area here is a link for that.

https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Grand%20Rapids&state=MI&country=USA

Note you can change the location.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

My, oh my, I can't believe how fast this summer is "flying" on by.  As we approach the warmest parts of our Summer, it is becoming clearer to me that most of our Sub is NOT going to Fry this month.  It will be a big turn of events from the torchy periods we have experience over the past number of weeks, esp for the Upper MW/GL's folks.

Last 30 days...

1.png

 

One thing that is for certain, is the amount of high lat blocking will place a strategic trough across the central CONUS, delivering a "RIPE" pattern for plenty of moisture.  As is always the case, during the summer rainy periods, nature has her way of spreading the wealth and there will be "Hav's and Have Not's".  I'm more optimistic than not that our farmers and members across the Plains/MW will see numerous bouts of storms this month.  

The CFSv2 is pretty much locked in...

4.gif

5.gif

 

 0z GEFS...ya'll ready for a major pattern flip???

7.gif

All this heat now is absolutely worth it. I love this. It'll go July 09-ish on us after all. I'm one happy camper. 😊 There just aren't a lot of teleconnections right now that reinforce a huge ridging situation til summer's end. 

The TX ridge gets smashed, eventually, and goes where it belongs.....California. I've been relentlessly persistent on that part. 

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

All this heat now is absolutely worth it. I love this. It'll go July 09-ish on us after all. I'm one happy camper. 😊 There just aren't a lot of teleconnections right now that reinforce a huge ridging situation til summer's end. 

The TX ridge gets smashed, eventually, and goes where it belongs.....California. I've been relentlessly persistent on that part. 

It looks like that summer saw near to below normal temps and near to above normal precip for our area. I could dig that. I sure can't stand how hot its been the last few days.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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What I remember most about that year was the periodically super nice days spaced out in the middle of hot. Just enough that it was perfect. The bulk of the center of the country saw nice cool stretches. It was beautiful. 

If we check the GFS and Euro ensembles, that's what's being shown.

Surprisingly, even the places that have experienced strong heatwaves (TX mostly) are only 1 degree or 2 above average since mid-May. That's pretty telling given the intensity of the hot spells. 

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@Hawkeye, looking a lot better for you and my area through this weekend.  I know many boaters and anglers aren't going to like this forecast but the way it looks, it'll be a split long weekend with Sat/Sun being the "nasso" nice days and Mon-Tue will be the winners around these parts.

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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Rather rare event just occurred for the month of June that really imo hammers home the point of UHI on climate. I will post this in both the June and July thread.

Minneapolis just recorded a warmer month (avg temp) than Des Moines,IA. It's only the 2nd time in history I can find this. ( July 2006). 

June 2023-   KMSP avg temp 74.9F (+5.3)  .93"    NINE 90F or above max temps - SEVEN lows 70F or warmer

June 2023     KDSM avg temp 73.7F (+1.5)  3.20"   THREE 90F or above max temps - ONE low 70F or warmer.

On avg- KDSM is much warmer than KMSP in the summer. AVG # of  days max temp 90F or warmer is 21 days on last  current 30 year running mean. Only 3 this year so far.

KMSP is 13 days -- that's a significant difference on a 30 yr running mean-- all ready 11 this year-- BLOWING AWAY KDSM

Avg # of days min temp is equal to or greater than 70F at MSP is 13F (all ready at seven)

Avg # of days min temp is equal to or greater than 70F at DSM is 21F ( only ONE so far)

Just though I would share

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On average July is the warmest month of the year with a average mean of 72.8 at Grand Rapids. On average there is 3.86” of rain fall in July. The daily H/L is rather stable with a H/L of 82.8/60.0 on the 1st and reaches up to 84.3/63.5 around the 20th and then falls to 83.6/63.2 by the 31st  The warmest mean temperature in July was 79.7 in 1921. It was 79.2 in 2012, 78.7 in 1916, 78.1 in 1901 and 77.3 in1936. The coldest Julys are 67.1 in 2009, 67.2 in 1992, 68.1 in 1950, 68.2 in 1996 and 68.4 in 2014. Note that more of us have seen one of the coldest Julys than have seen one of the hottest. The all time record high at Grand Rapids is 108 on July 13, 1936 it was also 106 on July 12th that year. A high of 104 was recorded on July 21st 1934 and on July 6, 2012 (here in MBY I recorded 108 on that day in 2012) The record low for July is 41 on July 6, 1983. It has gotten as cold as 42 in 1945 and 43 on several years the last time was on July 2, 2001. The coldest maximum temperature is 58 on July 15, 1987. The warmest minimum was a very warm 82 on July 5, 1982 note the highs were only in the 80’s so it must have been very humid. There was a low of just 81 on July 14, 1995 a low of 78 was recorded on the 13 that same month and highs were 97 on both days. Lows of 79 were record in 1942,1936,1916,1911. Other than that low of 78 in 1995 a low of 78 was recorded in 2013 and 2012.

On average Grand Rapids receives 3.86” of rain fall in July. The wettest July’s are 8.83” in 1992, 8.42” in 1950, 8.07” in 1994, 7.47” in 1912 and 6.41” in 1917. The driest July’s are 0.40” in 1934,0.46” in 1939, 0.54” in 1998, 0.56” in 1951 and 1930. It has been a long time since we have seen a very dry July and we have to go back to the 1990’s for a very wet one.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 89/64 there was no rain fall. There was 36% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 1931 and the record low of 44 was set in 1982. There were 0 HDD’s and 12 CDD’s. The “year” for Heating Degree Days runs from July 1st to June 30th that said the 2022/23 Heating Degree Days ended up at 5946 that is a departure of -460 below the 30-year average of 6406. The heating season of 2022/23 ended up as the 6th warmest in Grand Rapids history. The range runs from 7712 in 1904 to a low of 5253 in 2012.

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Here is a West Michigan summary of June 2023. Grand Rapids mean 68.8 (-0.1) the high for the month was 91 and the low was 47. There was 1.69” of rain fall. There were 6 days of 90 or better. At Lansing the mean was also 68.8 (+0.8) the high for the month 92 the low 44 with 0.89” of rain fall. There were 6 days of 90 or better. At Muskegon the mean was 68.9 (+1.5) the high for the month was 94 and the low was 45 with just 0.58” of rain fall. There were 7 days of 90 or better. At Holland the mean was 68.1 (+0.2) The high for the month was 93 and the low was 47. there was 1.12” of rain fall. There were 5 days of 90 or better.

An east Michigan summary. Detroit mean 68.6 (-1.3) the high for the month 90 the low for the month 48 there was 3.19” of rain fall. There was just 1 day of 90 or better. At Flint the mean was 65.9 (-1.2) the high for the month 89 the low for the month 39 there was 2.12” of rain fall. Flint did not have a day of 90 or better. At Saginaw the mean was 67.5 the high for the month was 90 and the low was 47 there was 2.03” of rain fall and there was just 1 day of 90 or better.

There were many days of a dry eastly wind and that caused the west side of the state to be warmer than the east side. Detroit, Flint, Saginaw all had a below average mean temperature. There were just one or no days of 90 or better and there was more rain fall. On the west side of the state Grand Rapids and Holland were near average and Muskegon and Lansing were above average. The east wind and dryness cause the west side of the state to have around 6 days of 90 or better. And Muskegon had the warmest high with a reading of 94.

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Here I am trying to crunch June 2023 in Ashland KY and some of the regular links I use for monthly data are a month or two behind on it.. Gotta do this the hard way.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just a few hundredths of light rain this morning, but it feels much better than most of what we've seen lately. Probably still going to be hot and humid during the afternoon though. The general outlook for the next week shows several rain chances. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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An amazing 82*. Overcast. Rain west of us. 
Humidity 60%. Low for a Tx July 
Dew 66

Ill take a summer of this!

1EF59657-55F8-4F80-8955-B313AF7D5509.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Great way to open up July...well, maybe not for outdoor activities for our OMA peeps! @Bryan1117 @gabel23

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It poured at our campground near Cedar Creek, NE for about 2-1/2 hours (made up for it with a great game of Monopoly with the family in the camper)… we picked up about 2” of rain here. Not sure what fell in my backyard, however it’s good to get decent, consistent rains around here again.

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We were snubbed by the rain. It stayed just west of us.  
Cloudy, 79* and really nice outside.  I’ll take that. 
edit:

Fire season has arrived with sporadic thunderstorms. 
high of 95 tomorrow as they fight fires west of me.  1000 acres are involved currently. 
 

CD6E8DEF-AC21-43E9-A00A-25AE9964EB05.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Today was a total bust for my area.  I got a few hundredths.  We had the one inch a week ago, but not much since.  The next chance is midweek, but models are suggesting poor front timing.  

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NE KY continues killing everything that enters this corner. I'm not sure when this next round starts but I'm going to bed.. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It was the type of "hit or miss" pop up torrential downpours yesterday as @FV-Mike mentioned.  Some areas got well over an 1" and officially ORD picked up 0.42".  The radar has that "defo" band look to it and reminds of the many systems that cycled through the Lower Lakes region in the cold season.  Radar is blossoming and I have a good chance to score some good downpours.

 

 

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Here it is, the long awaited Heat Wave for PHX...Excessive Heat Warning for the opening days of July as the SW and Cali are going to Fry big time.

Not cooling down much in Vegas this morning...

Screen Shot 2023-07-02 at 5.55.18 AM.png

 

Ugly Heat heading for the PHX Valley...

Screen Shot 2023-07-02 at 5.56.07 AM.png

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 81/66 the official rain fall was 0.40” There was 12% of possible sunshine. And there were 9 Cooling Degree Days. It was a rather humid day with dew points mostly in the upper 60’s The overnight low here in MBY and current temperature is 68 it is still rather humid and there are now a few sprinkles in the area.

For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 98 was set in 1910 and the record low of 43 was set in 2001. The record rain fall amount of 3.18” fell in 2008 Talking about rain fall the official rain fall for yesterday was 0.40” here in MBY I only had 0.02” and not too far away to the NE of my house very heavy rain fell and the streets were flooded. I know this as I was driving to work yesterday and there was so much rain fall that the roads were flooded.

Today looks to be cloudy with a good chance of rain. The rest of the Holladay period look to be warm to hot there is a chance of more rain on Wednesday. Not a good day for me for rain as I have tickets to see the Tigers game in Detroit on Wednesday. After mid week it looks to be some rather nice pleasant summer weather.

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The 0z runs of the GFS and Euro differ greatly on the timing and coverage of any rain that may fall mid week, with the Euro being the more optimistic for my area.  Both models suggest a good chance of rain next weekend but well that's along ways away.  Given the recent trends with rainfall I would lean more in the direction of the Canadian the next 10 days.

qpf_acc-imp.us_c.png

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I'm just a county or two outside of this Enhanced Risk.. Later today must be doing something totally opposite the last handful of events. 

20230702_day1otlk.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

The 0z runs of the GFS and Euro differ greatly on the timing and coverage of any rain that may fall mid week, with the Euro being the more optimistic for my area.  Both models suggest a good chance of rain next weekend but well that's along ways away.  Given the recent trends with rainfall I would lean more in the direction of the Canadian the next 10 days.

qpf_acc-imp.us_c.png

This hits my area hard again. The pattern that keeps delivering. 

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12 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

NE KY continues killing everything that enters this corner. I'm not sure when this next round starts but I'm going to bed.. 

FWIW, the HRRR and 3km NAM both say today is your day. ⚡️ 

No persistent AM crapvection f**king up boundary layer instability for once. That’s what has screwed you over the last 2 days (same here). You’re in a much better position than me today, though.

Unless it’s an extreme setup (either hyper EML and/or strong synoptic forcing), lingering convection/precip between 9AM-1PM is a death sentence for severe storm chances in this part of the country.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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At least the haze has mostly lifted today. The last 4+ days have been nasty w/rt air quality.

It’s humid as heck, though. Trees are transpirating like crazy after 8” of rain in 2 weeks. My sensor in the woods read 81/81 an hour ago. Mixed out to 84/77 now but windows are all dripping with condensation. It’s really gross.

The turnaround in drought conditions is worth the pain, though. My area is basically an oasis now, surrounded by drought conditions on all sides, but we’ve wiped out more than half of the deficit locally. I’ll take it.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Quite a rain event unfolding in Chicago metro.  This event by itself is probably too much too fast to actually end the drought (too much will runoff) but certainly will put a significant dent in it.

Crazy how it is just sitting over us

CHI_rain.png

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I can’t help but think how perfect of a pivot this would be in the Winter!  #winteronmymind

 

Some areas well over 5” and causing a lot of flooding in the city.  My local station says 1.85”.  Great soaking rain 🌧️ all day long.

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Finally a watch for Boyd County. According to my signature, my first one this year?

ww0436_radar_big.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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