October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Dave]

We got totally boned down here in the Eugenes, Was foggy all day until about 3. Nice out now but our high was a pathetic 67.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Ah, yeah Monument is nice. Almost 2000' higher than Denver metro, and that extra elevation also helps with cold front upslope or anytime there is northerly flow. 100"+ a winter is common.

To put it mildly. Average yearly snowfall in Monument is 110.6"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monument,_Colorado#Climate

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snow totals on the GFS

[Phil]

Yes please.

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1715084594356093041?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ
 

[MossMan]

Lovely evening to BBQ on this late October 63 degree evening. I need to mow again. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Just saw the 12z Euro, looks great

Save that pattern for Nov.

Mod/strong niño + warm Nov has = snowy winter here 100% of the time since (at least) WWII. Perfect success rate.

Cold Nov with healthy niño has a roughly 60-40 failure rate. Don’t wanna mess with that.

[Phil]

Each EPS run gets more insane over the Indian Ocean. One of the most impressive low pass tropical forcing anomalies I can recall.

[Phil]

Very strong +IOD doesn’t bode well for significant blocking/cold over the CONUS during Nov/Dec, though arguably the effects could be state dependent.

The midlat EOF Afor +IOD teleconnection degrades/changes structure around midwinter, which is also when pattern EOF for +ENSO becomes better established.

So whatever happens with the pattern in Nov/Dec, I suspect it will look very different compared to Jan/Feb. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Each EPS run gets more insane over the Indian Ocean. One of the most impressive low pass tropical forcing anomalies I can recall.

Is this a 1,2 or 3 mjo? 

[Deweydog]

Teleconnections!

[Doinko]

00z GFS

 

[MossMan]

47 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Teleconnections!

Here’s one! 

[MossMan]

Quite the drifts! Anyone up for doing some tumbleweed angels? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC has started. You up Rob?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 2

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is this a 1,2 or 3 mjo? 

It overlaps best with phase-8. But not quite the same thing since true MJO (filtered) is a single wave projection, while this is a wave-2 projection (a component of the low frequency state).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 3

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 4

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 6

[Rubus Leucodermis]

51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Quite the drifts! Anyone up for doing some tumbleweed angels? 

In New Mexico, I would see drifts like that along barbed-wire fences. Always made me fantasize about returning to those areas with a propane torch.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 10

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC snow totals

[smerfylicious]

I have more snow today 

 

 

[MossMan]

7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC snow totals

I’m real close to the first shade of gray! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m real close to the first shade of gray! 

So 38˚F rain it is for you, then!

[MossMan]

4 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

I have more snow today 

 

 

That PA announcement translated said “Haha Pacific Northwest United States, we have already kicked your ass in the snow department” 

[MossMan]

53 and drizzzzzle! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the Euro laid a massive turd last night. At least the GFS still looks good, although I’d rather have it be the other way around. Lots of ensemble spread.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Monday sure turned into a fun weather day. Extremely heavy rainfall at points that afternoon, and the minor tornado in central Vancouver. Ended up with a 66/51 spread that day. Evening low. Picked up close to an inch of rainfall with the morning stratiform rain and the afternoon downpours.

Tuesday was partly to mostly cloudy with some spots of morning fog. Weak warm front lifted north across the area late in the afternoon with some sprinkles. 64/47.

Wednesday started chilly and foggy, but was warm and sunny by afternoon. 71/42 spread.

Yesterday started out cool and foggy as well, but rose to the low 70s in the afternoon with a light east wind. 72/44 spread.

Mild morning today with more low clouds than ground fog. Low of 52 but that was early last night before the clouds formed. 55 currently. Would be nice to have a chilly last 1/3 of the month but the models still haven’t made up their minds.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast and 54.1˚F.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Drizzle and 53 this morning up here in the 'ham.

[Phil]

GEM and GFS are light years apart D4/D5. Quite amazing, really.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Eye-catching clouds on the drive home yesterday seen over the middle fork. Completely socked-in this morning at home, really feels like Fall. 1.62" of rain for the week, 4.61" for the month. 

 

 

[RentonHill]

Euro day 3 compared to Moe and Curly

 

[RentonHill]

Euro day 3 4-run trend