The Total Solar Eclipse of April 8, 2024

[MNTonka]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pivotal has added the total eclipse path and center line on their model maps.

Here was the 00z GFS

 

Where do I find this? I’m not seeing it when I click on cloud cover. 
 

edit: nevemind, it’s showing up for me now. Nice find! 

[Hawkeye]

The EPS and GEFS are not promising.  Both are suggesting significant storminess across the central US around April 8th.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The EPS and GEFS are not promising.  Both are suggesting significant storminess across the central US around April 8th.

Indeed.  Things can certainly change, but it is starting to look like the climo play of viewing the eclipse in Texas may be more iffy than being much farther northeast.  

Will be starting out the day of April 8 in Indianapolis and am willing to relocate anywhere between about southeastern Missouri and northeastern Ohio.  Anything outside of that is going to be difficult to pull off to where I would be confident on being able to get home the same night, as I expect heavy traffic to result in a much longer drive than usual.  

[bud2380]

Pretty awesome feature by Pivotal to have this on their maps.  Hour 270 cloud forecast is probably the least trustworthy forecast I could think of, but I'd still feel better if it showed clear skies right now. 

 

[Andie]

I’m really hoping for good skies for all of us. Likely our last solar opportunity.  I’m on the western line of totality. 
I read where hotel are filling up in areas of totality in Texas.  Big solar party down here.

[Hoosier]

Just for the heck of it, I looked at current hotel prices for Indianapolis and there are very few under $200 for the night of April 7, and many are between $200-500.   

[Hoosier]

In 2017 my hotel was in the suburbs of St. Louis, just outside the path of totality.  Even there, there was a buzz in the air with people talking about the eclipse the day before and day of.  With my hotel being in Indy, I'd imagine there will be even more of a buzz in the air.  Actually wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority of people at the hotel will be there because of the eclipse.  

Gonna sound old, but in this modern, fast-paced society that has become so divided, there are few things that can bring so many people together from all kinds of backgrounds to enjoy something with such a sense of wonder and awe.  An eclipse is one of them.

[Hoosier]

Just gotta laugh at this.  It's like someone or something is saying "how can we try to screw over as many people as possible"

Optimist in me says that maybe it's good that we are getting these kinds of model runs now.  Get the horrid runs out of the way now?

 

[Hoosier]

weather.us has cloud output for multiple levels of the atmosphere -- low, mid, high cloud cover.  May be useful as the time draws closer.  Having some high clouds would be a different ballgame compared to something like stratus.

[MNTonka]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

I’m really hoping for good skies for all of us. Likely our last solar opportunity.  I’m on the western line of totality. 
I read where hotel are filling up in areas of totality in Texas.  Big solar party down here.

I’m going to be in Clifton  

Any suggestions for other things to do in the area? Or places to eat? We are going to be there for a few days  

 

[kush61]

Cha Cha Cha...

GFS went from High pressure to to Low pressure at Lake Erie on the 8th, why such a drastic invert ?

 

[Andie]

1 hour ago, MNTonka said:

I’m going to be in Clifton  

Any suggestions for other things to do in the area? Or places to eat? We are going to be there for a few days  

 

There’s little to suggest in Clifton. Ranching and farming.   Waco might be close enough.  
Better ask folks where you’ll be. But that is certainly out in the heart of the state. 
I’d love it. Big, open, quiet.  
If you get bored easy take something with you. 
Me?  I’d be writing and drawing!! Photography with those big landscapes. I’m envious. 

[Clinton]

Lets hope this doesn't mess with the eclipse.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

Here is the severe weather outlook from the #LRC methodology issued 2/15/2024 over 50 days before it will verify during the April 7-13 period. Hopefully it doesn't mess with the total eclipse on the 8th.

@Weather2020had a 91% accuracy last year. #Eclipse2024

[MNTonka]

36 minutes ago, Andie said:

There’s little to suggest in Clifton. Ranching and farming.   Waco might be close enough.  
Better ask folks where you’ll be. But that is certainly out in the heart of the state. 
I’d love it. Big, open, quiet.  
If you get bored easy take something with you. 
Me?  I’d be writing and drawing!! Photography with those big landscapes. I’m envious. 

I’d invite all my fellow weatherforum folks if I could! We have literally never met the people we are staying with. It’s a friend of a friend of a friend that is apparently quite wealthy and has a guest house on his ranch . It should be quite the experience for sure! 

[Andie]

Hey, enjoy it up!  Sounds awesome.  Hope the weather pans out.   You never know here.  
Take pictures if you have a filter.  

[Black Hole]

Looking cloudy and wet here for that period, as others have noted. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like above average temperatures in Buffalo: 

[Hoosier]

Was just thinking about something in regards to Indy.  The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is open to the public for the eclipse.  That place can seat 250k.  Between that and the general draw that the Indianapolis area will be for eclipse chasers, I can't imagine what traffic will be like getting out of there after the eclipse.  It's pretty congested on race days, but this will take it to another level.

[Andie]

74* today. Gorgeous
Humidity 40% - low for us

Clear, Breezy. 10mph. 

Spotted a bunny on the golf course.  Wonder if he was hiding eggs?!  
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

 

[Hoosier]

Here's the 12z GFS.  This is for 18z and 21z Monday so you can sort of interpolate.  Will be nice when we get into range of the short range models since there will be hourly output to also cover 19z Monday.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The latest models suggest that the worst part of the path for viewing may be Texas as a storm system begins to develop and pull moisture into the region.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest models suggest that the worst part of the path for viewing may be Texas as a storm system begins to develop and pull moisture into the region.

Texas has gotten screwed on almost every model run since this thing has come into range, with more variance on what happens farther northeast along the path.  I'd definitely be getting nervous if I were planning on being in Texas.  

Sometimes clouds can fade during an eclipse as less energy comes in from the sun and the temperature drops, but that probably only works for certain types of clouds.  Would think it would be harder to get rid of low clouds.  

[Hoosier]

Leaving for Indianapolis one week from today!  Hard to believe it's so close now as I remember when this thing was still like 6 years away.  

Really, REALLY want to stay in Indiana for this as it will make the drive home somewhat easier, but it's also a bit of a pride thing as realistically this is my only shot to view one of these in my home state.  Generations of Indiana residents have come and gone since the last one here in 1869.  I'd be 116 years old the next time one occurs in Indiana, so probably won't be around to see it lol

[Hawkeye]

Today's op runs of the GFS and Euro are very different.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Today's op runs of the GFS and Euro are very different.

Is that Euro cloud product on the pay portion of Pivotal?

[MNTonka]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Today's op runs of the GFS and Euro are very different.

I’ve never been cheering harder for the euro! 

[Grizzcoat]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet but Pivotal has it's own dedicated page to the eclipse for clouds in ensembles.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=cmceens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=conus

[Black Hole]

Supposedly the GEFS over forecasts clouds, and perhaps the EPS too. Some in the know are saying the CMCE might be overall the best. If so, its looking decent for viewing in northwest AR. 

[Hoosier]

Quite a bit of model divergence now with the ejection of the closed low into the Plains/Midwest early next week.  The op GFS is substantially quicker/farther east with it compared to the 00z Canadian and Euro.  12z Canadian did speed it up some, but not to the extent of the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Supposedly the GEFS over forecasts clouds, and perhaps the EPS too. Some in the know are saying the CMCE might be overall the best. If so, its looking decent for viewing in northwest AR. 

That's the area that I'm targeting. Got a hotel room for cheap in Springfield, MO outside of the path of totality but anything that looks promising within a 4 hour drive is going to be my range. May pivot more towards Poplar Bluff/Cape Girardeau areas depending on conditions. 

Edited April 2 by BLI snowman

[Black Hole]

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That's the area that I'm targeting. Got a hotel room for cheap in Springfield, MO outside of the path of totality but anything that looks promising with a 4 hour drive is going to be my range. May pivot more towards Poplar Bluff/Cape Girardeau areas depending on conditions. 

Since I live about 2.5-3.5 hrs from a good chunk of the path that's been my plan too, and I am traveling the day of. Probably going to the spot I posted the image for, Russellville, but I could also go south to the Dallas area if its more clear.

[Hoosier]

12z GFS appears to be an outlier with how quickly it ejects the system on Monday.

12z Euro cloud map that just came in looks good for MO through OH.

[Erin Walsh]

On 3/28/2024 at 6:02 AM, Hawkeye said:

The EPS and GEFS are not promising.  Both are suggesting significant storminess across the central US around April 8th.

We are heartbroken, but this is the reason I decided to drive and camp instead of flights+hotel stay. I can’t justify the mileage and expense under current economic circumstances with so much evidence pointing to cloud cover and severe weather. I saw one TSE as a child with faint magical memories, so 2017 as an adult at the POT centerline blew me away. I guess we’ll try for Spain! Wishing you all grand adventures and the best viewing experience possible!

[MNTonka]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z GFS appears to be an outlier with how quickly it ejects the system on Monday.

12z Euro cloud map that just came in looks good for MO through OH.

Any chance I could get you to post the euro? 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, MNTonka said:

Any chance I could get you to post the euro? 

For areas showing cloud cover, I'd recommend switching to the site below or something like it, which has cloud output for the low, mid, and high levels so it gives a better idea of what kind of clouds may be present.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240403-0000z.html

[MNTonka]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For areas showing cloud cover, I'd recommend switching to the site below or something like it, which has cloud output for the low, mid, and high levels so it gives a better idea of what kind of clouds may be present.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240403-0000z.html

Thanks! 

[Bryan1117]

Right now we are targeting somewhere near St. Genevieve, MO (staying in St Louis on Sunday night). This will get us in the path of totality while giving us decent road options to pivot south or east. So far the forecast is looking better for viewing the eclipse in Missouri. 

[WinterSquall23]

On 3/22/2024 at 1:45 PM, Hoosier said:

I'd love to experience one from a ship or an airplane sometime, just for something different.  I heard that some airlines are offering "eclipse flights" on April 8.  Of course the airplane won't be able to keep up with the speed of the moon's shadow, but it will offer a longer duration of totality than observing from the ground (assuming the plane doesn't wander outside the path of totality).

Sure hope that we can manage clear skies for as many areas as possible.  

Probably the most incredible thing I seen. No city light pollution , or clouds . 360 degree sunset/sunrise, like dusk and dawn rolled into one.  Hoping for clear skies as well or at least not in the path of the sun at that point. 

[bud2380]

I'll be in Edinburgh, IN Monday for this.  As of right now the Euro looks great and the GFS looks iffy at best.  Hoping King Euro wins again.