The Total Solar Eclipse of April 8, 2024

[Hoosier]

46 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'll be in Edinburgh, IN Monday for this.  As of right now the Euro looks great and the GFS looks iffy at best.  Hoping King Euro wins again.  

I had never heard of the GFS having a cloudy bias, but apparently it's a thing so hopefully that's the case this time.  Even the GFS verbatim looks ok for most of the path in Indiana (at least the 12z run).  

I can be fairly mobile if needed so not locking in any destination at this point, but leaning toward being somewhere southwest of Indy... maybe near Bloomington but not right in Bloomington.  Very concerned about the traffic after the eclipse.  In 2017 I stuck to the interstates and state roads for a long time before trying any back roads, which was a mistake.  I think I'm going to start out on the back roads this time and try to make a lot of progress that way before maybe switching to the main roads later.  

[Hoosier]

Saw that the newly-retired Tom Skilling is going to be helping with WGN's coverage of the eclipse.  Tom is planning on being at the same location that he was for the 2017 eclipse, weather permitting.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Could someone post the 00z ecmwf cloud cover map? I don't trust the GFS and GEM enough to change my plans, will need some confirmation from the euro.

[Tom]

20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Saw that the newly-retired Tom Skilling is going to be helping with WGN's coverage of the eclipse.  Tom is planning on being at the same location that he was for the 2017 eclipse, weather permitting.

I believe he was near Carbondale, IL, right next to SIUC…Saluki’s!  

[Black Hole]

Here are some maps I am looking at this morning. CMC seems to have the most realistic cloud cover. Based on the soundings below (GFS and CMC) I'd say patchy high clouds are likely but the eclipse will be visible in NW AR where I am headed. Plenty of moisture in the upper levels, but upper level height maps show neutral to confluent flow so I suspect light sinking motion will limit the amount of clouds that are able to develop. 

[Black Hole]

I'm not too worried about the almost saturated layer at 850 hPa because the lack of sunshine should limit the low level thermals so presumably there won't be a lot of low level cumulus. 

[Hoosier]

This pretty much illustrates the difference between totality and no totality.  If you're on the fence about traveling to see totality, especially if you live near the totality zone, it's worth it to say the least!

 

[Stormy]

On 3/23/2024 at 8:18 PM, Hoosier said:

Just some thoughts/suggestions for those traveling to a total solar eclipse for the first time.  

It wouldn't be a bad idea to have some way of knowing where you're going that doesn't rely on internet/GPS.  Cell service can be an issue in rural areas in the best of times, but the system may get overwhelmed by the influx of people and in general, I just wouldn't want to rely on technology in the event that something goes wrong.  For the 2017 eclipse, I actually went old school and bought those large paper state maps and traced the boundaries of the path of totality.  Was glad that I did that as service was indeed sketchy at times.  Might just download some maps onto my phone this time, not sure yet.  

Anticipate heavy traffic (especially after the eclipse), even in some of the rural areas.  Some of these towns will probably have more people coming through on April 8 than they've ever seen before.  Funny story from the morning of the 2017 eclipse... I stopped at a gas station to use the bathroom in a town called Ava, IL on my way into far southern IL.  It has about 500 people.  The line for the bathroom was out the door... there were dozens of people in line... no joke.  

Gas up when you can and have some snacks/beverages in the car with you.

My brother went down in that area to see it in 2017, but I couldn't make it. This time though, I'm going to the Carbondale, IL area (not far from Ava) where another brother lives. Lucky for people there, being it's the only area where both total eclipses cross, which I'm sure you knew! 

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, Stormy said:

My brother went down in that area to see it in 2017, but I couldn't make it. This time though, I'm going to the Carbondale, IL area (not far from Ava) where another brother lives. Lucky for people there, being it's the only area where both total eclipses cross, which I'm sure you knew! 

Yeah, it's remarkable that there are 2 total eclipses in southern IL less than 7 years apart.  After Monday, the next total eclipse in southern IL won't be for hundreds of years.

[Stormy]

I plan leaving around 1:00 am. Monday with a van load of friends. In fact a bus load of people is leaving from my community to see it. Makes for less traffic going together! Lol

As of now the NWS point forecast is calling for sunny skies on Monday near Carbondale.

 

Oops, I couldn't clear the editor for some reason, then kind of reposted things. I will need to edit this. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Are we still on track to calling this the Total Over Cast of April 8 2024? 

[Hoosier]

Something I've been trying to go through in my mind is where are the people traveling from the heavily populated Chicago metro area more likely to go, since they will be a significant contributor to the traffic.  Will they stay in Illinois or go to Indiana.  It's kind of a tough question to answer.  For some of them, Indiana would be closer.  For others, it would be a similar distance.  And for others, staying in Illinois would be closer.  Perhaps the people who saw the 2017 eclipse in southern IL will opt for that area again.  Maybe the most likely answer is that it will kind of be a split, with a good chunk of them staying in IL and a good chunk heading for IN.  

[Andie]

Texas is looking hazy or cloudy. We always get ‘skunked’.

Edit: Just caught the long range from the local Met.  
Overcast, scattered T-storms.  
Yup! Skunked!

[MNTonka]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

Texas is looking hazy or cloudy. We always get ‘skunked’.

Edit: Just caught the long range from the local Met.  
Overcast, scattered T-storms.  
Yup! Skunked!

High clouds or haze could still be pretty great. In 2017 we had similar conditions and once it started to get close to totality, it actually cleared up. It was the most amazing thing I’ve ever experienced! I’m hoping for a similar scenario this year. Don’t give up hope! Good luck! 

[Andie]

I hope you’re right.   
im going to hold onto that and be optimistic.  

[Stormy]

15 hours ago, MNTonka said:

High clouds or haze could still be pretty great. In 2017 we had similar conditions and once it started to get close to totality, it actually cleared up. It was the most amazing thing I’ve ever experienced! I’m hoping for a similar scenario this year. Don’t give up hope! Good luck! 

A similar thing happened in Mo. where my brother went to watch in 2017. It was all cloudy, but  clearing occurred just in time for the eclipse with clouds moving back in soon after! It's was sunnier in IL. that time. 

[Hoosier]

The HRRR is one of the few models that is actually able to model the eclipse, in terms of the decreasing incoming solar energy.  Particularly interested in its cloud output.  We'll get the first look at it with tomorrow's runs.

[MNTonka]

5 hours ago, Stormy said:

A similar thing happened in Mo. where my brother went to watch in 2017. It was all cloudy, but  clearing occurred just in time for the eclipse with clouds moving back in soon after! It's was sunnier in IL. that time. 

MO is where we were! 

[westMJim]

My wife and I are going to Ohio to see the total solar eclipse on Monday. We are going to the town of Bucyrus. It is a rather small town about 40 miles SSW of Sandusky. The eclipse will be total there for about 3 minutes and 43 seconds. While not the longest period of total in Ohio (around 3 minutes 52 seconds is) I have booked a hotel for both Sunday and Monday nights. We will view the eclipse from the parking lot. The will give us a nice base for the viewing (depending of course on how the sky conditions play out) So we will have a bathroom if needed and a place to get food and drinks as needed. During the last eclipse in 2017 we went to the Tennessee-Kentucky state line. We had a space at a drive in movie theater. That worked out great as we had the above bathroom and there was food and they had several people from the University of Western Kentucky give presentations on the eclipse.  That drive-inn is right on the state line and you could walk into Tennessee and or Kentucky. That eclipse the time of totally was 2M and 32S so this year it will be just over a minute longer than that one was. The day that year was great with a clear sky and the temperature was in the low 90’s before the start and yes it did indeed get much cooler at its peak. The biggest issue wat the huge traffic jam that happened after. I went to get on north bound I 65 and in the road leading to the interstate the right lane was stopped about 3 miles before the exit. I took the back road up the Bowling Green it was not bad on the road but there was still a lot of traffic. We had dinner in Bowling Green and I thought the traffic would be broken up by there. Well it was not. The line to get on I 65 was now around 10 miles long. I decided to take a back two lane road north. So I got on US 31 north. This was a good idea for about 70 miles. On I 65 it is about 125 miles to Louisville and less than 2 hours. Well after about 70 miles US 31 was also backed up and we were just crawling along at bout 20 MPH. It took us until past 12 midnight to get to Louisville. As I did not know how to cross the river on the back road and the city streets in Louisville. I got back on 65 it was moving now but it was only about 40 MPH. It was a long trip home that night so this time I am staying a 2nd night at the hotel.  While it is still a ways out and things could change but this AM weather guess for Sunday in Bucyrus is Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Southeast wind around 11 mph. So we shall see.

[Hoosier]

Here's the low, middle, and high level cloud output from the 12z Euro, valid at 19z Monday.  Totality happens near 19z in the southwestern portion of this map and a little after 19z farther northeast.

The consensus between this and other model runs is that if we are dealing with clouds, we are probably going to be dealing with more in the way of high cloudiness compared to lower clouds.  If that's the case, then the million dollar question is how extensive and thick will those clouds be.  High clouds wouldn't totally ruin the experience, but it may make it more difficult to pick out certain aspects of the eclipse, such as the corona.

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

So as mentioned earlier, the HRRR is one of the models that actually models the eclipse.  Here you can see it showing up in the incoming solar radiation plots.  Notice the big drop between 17z and 18z, especially in the southern/western US and southward, and it spans a much larger area than the path of totality.  Totality is about to reach Mexico at 18z.  

This should show up in the temperature output in later runs as the eclipse continues to progress into the US.

 

[Hoosier]

Black hole sun in action

 

[Hoosier]

 

[Niko]

Everyone be careful and wear eclipse glasses. Recommended glasses: ISO 12312-2.

[Hoosier]

Currently in Indianapolis (well actually in Avon, IN eating dinner).  Drive in was slow at times but fine at other times.  Good luck to all tomorrow.  

[Andie]

DFW is looking mostly cloudy Monday for certain.
70% chance of showers. Bummer. 
Guess I’ll watch online or TV.
 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Goodluck to all of the chasers today! Going to be in the northeastern edge of Arkansas totality, forecast looks pretty good.

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Goodluck to all of the chasers today! Going to be in the northeastern edge of Arkansas totality, forecast looks pretty good.

Good luck to you as well, we are in St Louis right now and will be dropping about 90 minutes south between St Genevieve and Cape Girardeau, MO. Forecast so far looks decent, maybe just some scattered high clouds to deal with.

[Hoosier]

Still not quite sure where I'm headed.  Will grab some breakfast and then make a decision.  Pretty much know I'm not remaining in Indy (want to get as close to center as possible and avoid the extra traffic that will be occurring in the Indy area).

[westMJim]

Good morning from Bucyrus Ohio. At the current time here it is partly cloudy. The forecast for today is partly ot mostly sunny with highs in the low 70's with falling temperatures during the eclipse. We are going to stay right here in the motel paring lot area there is a lot of grass areas here and several other guest have lawn chairs (we do too) and will just see the eclipse from here. 

[Hawkeye]

It's too bad the totality path isn't farther nw, through Kansas and southeast Iowa.  It's clear and sunny here today.

It appears the Texas part of the eclipse is covered in clouds, so tough luck for them.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Still not quite sure where I'm headed.  Will grab some breakfast and then make a decision.  Pretty much know I'm not remaining in Indy (want to get as close to center as possible and avoid the extra traffic that will be occurring in the Indy area).

I just spoke to my nephew who turned 10 years old today and they just arrived into Indy...I believe the race track...what a memory he will have for the rest of his life.  Enjoy the show!

[Hoosier]

32 minutes ago, Tom said:

I just spoke to my nephew who turned 10 years old today and they just arrived into Indy...I believe the race track...what a memory he will have for the rest of his life.  Enjoy the show!

Thanks Tom.

Will be heading toward the Ellettsville/Bloomington area, but monotoring trends closely and may readjust on the fly.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Thanks Tom.

Will be heading toward the Ellettsville/Bloomington area, but monotoring trends closely and may readjust on the fly.

Good luck and I pray the weather turns our just right...

[westMJim]

At this time the sky is clear with nice blue skies. Hope it stays this way. Here in the town of Bucyrus the main street dose not seem to have much traffic at this time. There is a park with some set  up for the event but we are going to just stay here at the motel. Right out the door here the time of totality will be 3 minutes 49 seconds. At a very small town to the west of here where the center line runs thru the time there is just 7 seconds longer. We drove thru that town yesterday (the towns name is Forest) the people did not look to be very welcoming to anyone stopping there.

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, there have been no total solar eclipses near my area in my lifetime, and there won't be any through the rest of this century.  I just found a set of maps for total solar eclipses next century.  In October of 2153, downtown Cedar Rapids will be exactly in the center of totality.

[bud2380]

Setup at a farm in Edinburgh, IN.  Beautiful weather currently. I believe totality here is supposed to be 3 minutes and 56 seconds. It will be my first total eclipse. Looking forward to it. 

[westMJim]

8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Setup at a farm in Edinburgh, IN.  

You are to the SW of where I am at. You look clearer than here at the current time. There are some high clouds here at this time. Hope that clearing  moves to the NE. The time I have for your area is 3M 58S and for here in Bucyrus OH of 3M 49S

[Hoosier]

I'm on the IU campus in Bloomington and there's a good amount of people out and about.  Looks like they have their football stadium open for viewing.  Still scouting out a final spot. 

[Andie]

DFW has a cloud cover of about 70% right now.  Unless it breaks, we are out of luck.   

update:  clouds are heavier. Front moving in.  We’re shut out.