1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Grizzcoat]

ukie

 

[KTPmidMO]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If the models hold we may see a Winter Storm Watch issued tomorrow for this storm.  I have yet to have one this season.

Did we even get a Winter storm watch/warning last year? I dont believe I did.

[Clinton]

Just now, KTPmidMO said:

Did we even get a Winter storm watch/warning last year? I dont believe I did.

I'm pretty sure I had 1 in Dec and 2 in February.

[Money]

Euro looks pretty similar so far through 78

[winterfreak]

EURO is a downer. Sleet fest.

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro looking like a bit less totals overall vs 12z. Some improvement in MO.

 

[clintbeed1993]

Talk about anti climatic 

[Money]

Definitely improvement in eastern WI compared to previous runs. From 2-3 to 5-7 ish 

[Grizzcoat]

From DSM down to KOTM- Lamoni area does better this run... SW IA to OMA to St JOE not so well

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

ICON juiced for much of IA-- wettest run yet-

[Money]

Icon a bit NW and snowier 

[Grizzcoat]

OMX didn't expand WSWatches to the E with updated package this AM. My guess is Watches up in PM package for along and South of I-80 in Iowa from DMX.

[Money]

GFS continues the NW trend 

[MKEstorm]

MKX is finally getting in to really discussing this!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote

The main focus for next week continues to be on the system coming
in for Tuesday into early Wednesday morning followed by a
secondary light snow on Thursday.

Starting with the main system on Tuesday/early Wednesday, the
06.00z ECMWF ensembles and GEFS are fairly in line with the trend
of taking the system as a whole further northwest, putting
southern Wisconsin more in line to get a decent accumulating
snowfall. For the overall synoptic pattern trends, the 500mb
closed low now propagates from southern Illinois into the eastern
Great Lakes when yesterday/beyond had it moreso in the
southeastern US. As a result, the 850mb low now takes a more
favorable track through central Illinois on into southern Michigan
which puts us into the better WAA, particularly Tuesday afternoon
when it appears we have the deepest forcing. The surface low now
also takes a more favorable path as it occludes in northern
Indiana. The 700-600mb TROWAL signal is still there for a period
Tuesday afternoon/evening as well on the GFS/ECMWF. Guidance-wise,
the main outliers are the far end of the 06.00z NAM and Canadian.
The NAM is way fast and north with the trough and brings it much
closer to southern WI. On the other end is the Canadian which is
way south and barely hits southern WI with any snow/precip.

As for details, it`s still a bit out there and as always there
are some concerns/questions. First thing is with Lake Michigan
water temperatures being in the low 40s and the fact that the
air mass over us will not be that cold/hovering around freezing.
With an easterly flow off of the lake, there`s a question of
precipitation type and whether it will be snow or rain near Lake
Michigan. The 06.00z ECMWF/GEFS ensembles actually show some
lake enhancement occurring, which is contradictory to the p-type
concerns just mentioned. The air mass coming across the lake
isn`t expected to be cold enough to create instability in the
low levels, so am currently skeptical of the lake enhancement.
Second challenge is with it being a long duration snow which
looks like it could start early Tuesday morning and last through
early Wednesday morning. The main window for the higher
QPF/snow amounts appears to be from the afternoon/evening when
that deeper lift comes in with the 850mb low and TROWAL. The
third thing is with model guidance and snow ratios, which look
to be on the high side at the moment. Ensemble guidance doesn`t
have much of a spread with it being between 10/1 to 14/1, but
given the temperature profile/shallow DGZ/decent low level
winds...thinking it should end up being lower than that around
8/1 to 10/1. 06.00z ECMWF/GEFS ensemble probabilities of 0.50"
or greater QPF have increased to around 90% in far SE WI to
10-30% from SW WI to EC WI. Yesterday at this time it was down
around 50% in that main corridor.

Overall, trends are going toward being more favorable for an
accumulating snowfall for Tuesday/early Wednesday but things can
and will still change.

Beyond that, a shortwave trough on the backside of the main
longwave 500mb trough propagates through early on Thursday and
should bring some light snow in across much of southern WI. After
that...the pattern stays active into next weekend and then the
cold air finally descends into the US going into the following
week.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro looking like a bit less totals overall vs 12z. Some improvement in MO.

 

Snow is west over me now. Interesting 

[CentralNebWeather]

03z SREF continues the better trend over much of the area. 

[CentralNebWeather]

06 NAM 

[CentralNebWeather]

06z Euro 

[Clinton]

EAX this morning.

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
516 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 AM CST SAT JAN 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Light snow exiting eastern Missouri this morning, with a few
  flurries possible this afternoon across the area.

- A potential winter storm will move through the region Monday and
  Tuesday. Accumulating snowfall is expected for Monday evening
  into Tuesday, though specific amounts remain uncertain.

Regional radar imagery shows light returns/snow exiting eastern
sections of the CWA as of early this morning. Area roads are mostly
wet, with the exception of far NW MO, specifically the Hwy 36
corridor, where minor accumulations managed to stick where slightly
better snow rates and cooler temps resided. Clouds and patchy fog
will hold today, with a few flurries possible as a weaker shortwave
trough skirts the area. Highs today will be in the middle to upper
30s, closer to seasonal averages. Pronounced shortwave ridging moves
over the CWA on Sunday afternoon, with temperatures slightly
moderating with highs in the 40s for areas along and south of the
Interstate 70 corridor. Overall, most areas will not see any
additional measurable precipitation from sunrise this morning
through sunrise Monday.

Attention will turn to the next highly-amplified upper trough
anticipated to eject from the Four Corners on Monday to the Plains
by Tuesday. This dynamic system has the makings of a potential
winter storm for some portion of the region, albeit being still 3-4
days out, uncertainty remains with the specific evolution of the
upper trough and its track. There is a growing consensus that a
large portion of the CWA will be impacted by snowfall. Latest LREF
guidance shows a 50% or greater of 5" of total snow for the forecast
area. One of the biggest uncertainties remains with the initial
precipitation on Monday into Monday evening as strong WAA ahead of
the system will provide a vertical temp profile supportive of all
rain or a rain/snow mix. When that switchover to snow occurs as
colder air advects in will have an impact on total snowfall
expectations. Additionally, the evolution and location of the TROWAL
and its associated wraparound snowfall remains uncertain. With
improved sampling upstream of the upper trough today, subsequent
model runs should begin to better converge on a closer
representative solution. In addition to the snowfall, a
strengthening pressure gradient will produce northerly wind gusts
in excess of 35 mph on Tuesday, potentially reducing visibilities.
The primary takeaway is that while uncertainly remains, this is a
dynamic system with the potential for accumulating snowfall for
portions of the CWA Monday evening into Tuesday.

Lastly, long term guidance continues to suggest much colder air with
well-below normal temperatures to move into the region by the end of
the work week - including the potential for another storm system to
impact the area.

[Clinton]

6z GFS not much different from 0z

 

[Grizzcoat]

09 SREF HR 78

[Clinton]

6z GEFS a little more juiced for MO and Ill.

[CentralNebWeather]

09z SREF. 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro 24 HR snow totals (KUCHERA)

[Grizzcoat]

Jump NE from 00Z -

[CentralNebWeather]

Monday forecast map. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Grizzcoat]

Notes and asides from experience once these systems get sampled imo-

SREF is usually too high at this range. Usually keeps increasing totals until about 48 hrs out then a steady decrease-- at least last year.

3KM NAM has hits and misses like any model but usually does better than 12KM NAM inside 36 hrs.

Today 12Z and 00Z runs should hone in much better. The WAA snow is about solved- the trowal/def band I think can still shift 50-100 miles.

And RAP does better than HRRR with moderate snow.

 

[hawkstwelve]

06z EPS mean went from 4.8 to 6.3 here. Small shift north when compared to 00z.

I have yet to find a model that only shows me getting 2-3 yet that is what NWS FSD continues to call for. They barely even discuss it in their latest AFD. Really curious why they aren't biting on this yet. At this point, 4+ inches feels like a pretty decent bet up here. 

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and EPS both look better for the eastern half of Iowa and NE MO

[Grizzcoat]

SREF PLUME viewer site-

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Sciascia said:

Word has it (from Fox Chicago’s Mike Caplan) that a special mission was done to collect sampling from this system even though it’s not yet on shore. Data was supposed to start appearing in the 00z suite.

I miss the local mets back in Chitown...Caplan, Skilling and of course, how can you not miss Cheryl Scott!  Phil Schwarz is also a good met...Brant Miller on NBC turned into a anti-snow lover...I remember he really didn't like forecasting cold and snow.  Anyway, I'm super stoked for my old peeps back home.  Looks like a good 1st Sig storm of the season and the first of many as I see it down the road.

[Grizzcoat]

Look at how much further W the trowal has moved from 12Z yesterday to 06Z on the Euro- and still 90 hrs out

[Tom]

Gosh, I really needed to catch up on some Zzz's last night...came back from errands and ate dinner and literally zonked from 6:30pm till 2:30am, waking up once and then went back to sleep for an hour...alrighty then, what a fun time to be a winter weather enthusiast!   You have no idea what it feels like to sit here in AZ when my family back home is about to get nailed by a Big snowstorm...trends are looking mighty fine right now...

 

How about that 0z UKIE??

[Black Hole]

Probably still some last minute adjustments to make, but I think this EPS mean pretty well covers my expectations at this point. I should get an inch or so of snow in the wraparound here but the main banding will set up to my north and northeast across southern KS/MO. So it'll be another wasted potential but I'm still happy for you folks up north. Everybody but Wichita deserves some, they've had enough already lol 

[Hawkeye]

Wow, I haven't been too enthused about this one for my area, but models are certainly trending wetter here for both the initial wave and the main wave.  I would be thrilled with several inches. 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Probably still some last minute adjustments to make, but I think this EPS mean pretty well covers my expectations at this point. I should get an inch or so of snow in the wraparound here but the main banding will set up to my north and northeast across southern KS/MO. So it'll be another wasted potential but I'm still happy for you folks up north. Everybody but Wichita deserves some, they've had enough already lol 

It appears to me the EPS is seeing a better lake influence from a stronger/deeper low that will prob have great dynamics to cool the air enough aloft and allow for some added Lehs snow totals over SE WI/NE IL.  

[Tom]

Here it comes...snow flakes will be flying just about Lunchtime and it appears to rip hard till late evening across the White Mountains...

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
210 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024

AZZ011-017-061800-
/O.UPG.KFGZ.WS.A.0001.240107T0600Z-240108T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.WS.W.0001.240107T1800Z-240108T0700Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-White Mountains-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Show Low, and Greer
210 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024 /210 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Periods of snow expected. Winds gusting as high as 45
  mph, causing blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Areas near Alpine, Buffalo Pass, Ganado, Pinetop-
  Lakeside, Show Low, Whiteriver and Window Rock.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to midnight MST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

  Snow forecast from 11 AM Sunday to midnight Monday:

         Alpine  2 to 4  inches    Buffalo Pass  4 to 6  inches
         Ganado  4 to 6  inches  Pinetop-Lkside  5 to 9  inches
       Show Low  4 to 6  inches      Whiteriver  4 to 6  inches
    Window Rock  3 to 5  inches.

 

[Black Hole]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

It appears to me the EPS is seeing a better lake influence from a stronger/deeper low that will prob have great dynamics to cool the air enough aloft and allow for some added Lehs snow totals over SE WI/NE IL.  

That spot seems to be the sweet spot for maximizing snow duration. First in the warm advection snow, then the wrap around (and pivoting wrap around at that!)