Money Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Ukie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 UK actually briefly flips to rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 There are some nukes on the 12z GEFS. Several members under 970 mb 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 Was just thinking how remarkable it would be to get two ~980 mb lows tracking to southern Lake Michigan like 4 days apart. Wouldn't be shocked to learn that that has never happened before... not saying it hasn't though. Almost enough to make me think that the runs cutting to Lake Michigan have to be wrong, haha. It will be interesting to see if we can actually pull this off. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Trend of last three ICON and CMC runs centered around Friday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12z Euro further north with the Friday system compared to 00z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 Primarily rainer here on 12z Euro You gotta be kidding me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 The one negative on the new Euro is the digging energy is a bit broad, so it takes a while to wrap up as it cuts toward the lakes. A sharper short wave ejecting out of the southwest would lead to a bigger storm, earlier. Despite a great surface low track, snow across Iowa is kinda meh. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z Euro further north with the Friday system compared to 00z. Pretty good increase around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12z GraphCast doesn't look half bad. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 Some monsters on the 12z EPS. Quite a few of these are deeper than the op run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 I’m just glad we have something to track 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, Money said: I’m just glad we have something to track I call these the throw **** at the wall patterns. A lot of folks (unfortunately not everybody) should have 2-3 good chances over the next 10 days or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 Icon at 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 12z EPS 12z GEFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 GFS is awful 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Money said: GFS is awful More of a multi part event at first glance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7 Report Share Posted January 7 This one seems to be fading. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Author Report Share Posted January 7 Comparing the 18z GFS to the 12z GFS, notice how 18z puts more emphasis on an initial wave in the Midwest. Also the base of the trough in Mexico is farther east. Result... more of a 2 part event with the second one ending up east of 12z. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Adios. The models suck and are a tease Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Adios. The models suck and are a tease Bailing over the 18z GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Bailing over the 18z GFS? Bailing over a 18z gfs run 5 days away with a lot of moving parts is hilarious lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 44 minutes ago, Money said: Bailing over a 18z gfs run 5 days away with a lot of moving parts is hilarious lol Trends aren’t there. This will go south. And once again I’ll have to rely on lake effect. If it ever gets cold, which keeps getting pushed back. Sitting at 2” on the year. 3 feet below normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 Been bad almost everywhere but relative to average, GRR has had it extremely bad so I get being pessimistic until something actually happens. But if you put aside what has happened so far this winter, there is decent model agreement on something affecting GRR late week. No guarantees of course, but the overall model signals in totality are pretty good at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 EAX AFD: As we head into Friday, models continue to suggest another trough digging into the Desert Southwest and ejecting across the south central US. This will bring another chance for potentially significant accumulating snowfall Friday into Friday night, although at the moment the track seems to be a little further south southeast compared to the tomorrow/Tuesday system. Additionally, very cold temperatures are likely to arrive and plunge us into what could be a prolonged period of subfreezing temperatures. This is currently forecast to include single digit to perhaps even subzero temperatures Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night with well below zero wind chills. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 I just saw my local weather app has me with 3-6” on Thursday. I had really no idea, as I’ve been focused on the first storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: Trends aren’t there. This will go south. And once again I’ll have to rely on lake effect. If it ever gets cold, which keeps getting pushed back. Sitting at 2” on the year. 3 feet below normal. Nearly everyone is way below normal right now.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 00z ICON looks like a good hit parts of the OV into at least parts of the Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Really weak system on the models now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 57 minutes ago, Clinton said: EAX AFD: As we head into Friday, models continue to suggest another trough digging into the Desert Southwest and ejecting across the south central US. This will bring another chance for potentially significant accumulating snowfall Friday into Friday night, although at the moment the track seems to be a little further south southeast compared to the tomorrow/Tuesday system. Additionally, very cold temperatures are likely to arrive and plunge us into what could be a prolonged period of subfreezing temperatures. This is currently forecast to include single digit to perhaps even subzero temperatures Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night with well below zero wind chills. That Chief’s game Saturday will be something else. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z ICON looks like a good hit parts of the OV into at least parts of the Lakes. Looks like it hits you well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Money said: Looks like it hits you well Would appear so. Noticeable lake contribution as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Just now, KCSmokey said: That Chief’s game Saturday will be something else. That would be awesome! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 This ICON run simply has the short wave flying eastward way too quickly. It needs to dig more and slow down. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 GFS looks like it might go more north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 HR 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Money said: GFS looks like it might go more north I might rain in the first wave lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 Trough is sharper/more amplified. Should end up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 What a weird evolution lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.