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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Every model has shifted south this evening.    I think this is because the low is even weaker than originally projected. 

I think it's the opposite. The weaker low would become baggy more quickly and be absorbed by the forming Northern shortwave more quickly and jump up to the NW tip of WA. The stronger it is the longer it holds together down South the more South it will end up.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5579200.thumb.png.367b4899dc77a5c10f7170e619dd072b.png

Wow, this is going to be close. This shows 9" at my house and just a couple on either side of me (which I interpret to mean mostly rain). I have just the smallest bit of elevation which may help me, but probably not enough.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

I think it's the opposite. The weaker low would become baggy more quickly and be absorbed by the forming Northern shortwave more quickly and jump up to the NW tip of WA. The stronger it is the longer it holds together down South the more South it will end up.

I have no idea!   But that low cruising into the central Oregon coast in the next 2 hours is not the low that was modeled for the Puget Sound.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

1.5 hours. That's the official amount of time it has to freeze to qualify. 

Look it up.

That's fascinating.  I know it's not always instantaneous but that seems a little silly since it would have time to freeze after a nighttime shower ended if there's clearing behind it.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, luvssnow_spokane said:

GREAT READ: With Puget Sound Energy’s (PSE) recent debacle, Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, takes climate zealots to task in a blog post titled: The Cold Truth About Renewable Energy in the Pacific Northwest.

https://x.com/wagop/status/1747383497302622434?s=46&t=dIP_tfaU13ExwPgv5KMjSw

*** that guy.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

It might not freeze instantly, but standing water will always freeze in a subfreezing environment. If it’s not freezing *at all* (esp on metallic surfaces such as railings, etc) then it’s not below freezing to begin with, and your thermometer is likely running cold.

No, the surface temps on everything went above freezing today, all layers of air are too warm, air is saturated, it has happened here at 29 degrees before, tonight at 31, it will happen again.

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

That's fascinating.  I know it's not always instantaneous but that seems a little silly since it would have time to freeze after a nighttime shower ended if there's clearing behind it.

To be fair, that case would lead to many of the same issues as standard freezing rain (although it may not build up quite as aggressively on trees/power lines/etc).

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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35 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And he did it as a reply to a Michael Snyder post that was totally unrelated. When Snyder blocks him, it will of course then be spun as yet another instance of how the entire unfair world is conspiring against poor little him.

LOL!!!!😂 "poor little him" 😂 regardless of why or who or what...I have never ever heard that in my life and i died laughing out loud after I read that. Awesome.

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That's fascinating.  I know it's not always instantaneous but that seems a little silly since it would have time to freeze after a nighttime shower ended if there's clearing behind it.

I was just being silly.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea!   But that low cruising into the central Oregon coast in the next 2 hours is not the low that was modeled for the Puget Sound.

I wouldn't say it's not the same low. Just that models have that low kind if falling apart/becoming very baggy before it makes it to the Coast and reorganizing/being absorbed by the shortwave sliding down the Coast near Forks.

Satellite can be deceiving but the low does still look pretty organized down there. If it still looks that put together down South in a couple hours then something might be amiss that could lead to the Sound holding onto Northerly gradients longer and potentially switching to snow down to Seattle or at least Everett. Worth watching!

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, iFred said:

Weakened polar jet means shorter wavelengths, but also more opportune time for blocking, A warming north Pacific means that the axis of the ridge can shift further west. A delay in sea ice coverage in the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Strait means that the storm track can hug the SIberian coast, creating stronger lows with the beautiful mixture of dry Russian air and moist Japanese moistness. These lows then pump the jet and the ridge. More tropical convective opportunities because of that warmer air means more opportunities for Kona lows which help build that ridge even further and can be useful in anchoring it. Then we have our friend the North Atlantic which also being warmer, encourages larger sprawling highs that help squeeze air out of the arctic. Then we have the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Later snowcover and lake ice mean that the storm track is further inland, allowing for an effective wall to slow any eastward progression of our cold air friend.

Lastly, as @Meatyorologist had pointed out a while ago, if we manage to get air on the western side of the Rockies, it can not only stay strapped, but at lower levels it can linger, provided that the Pacific is weak, something expected with climate change.

All of this is a bit of conjecture, a paper I read on air currents, and anecdotal evidence from the past decade of this forum, where our summers are warmer and drier, and our winters seem to be prone to more extremes.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know from a few of you, some of whom I respect and would like to get a beer to bond over our shared love of cold, snow, ice, dark Pacific Northwest winters, will have to say that I am being "CNN Fred", a liberal loon who is pushing some global warming agenda, and you'd mostly be right. If you want to argue that aspect, meet me in the Off Topic forum.

Every intradecadal pattern regime is considered a “new normal” until it inevitably changes again. Rinse, repeat.

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I think people reporting those precip types are mistaking snow for sleet. Definitely nicer to see sleet if we do get any though. Nothing falling here yet. 

It’s a conflation between “Ice Pellets” and “Graupel”. In mPING the snow option is actually listed as “Snow and/or Graupel”. So if it’s graupel/corn snow/whatever that is falling (or if sleet is conflated with graupel) it will have the snowflake icon. 

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the flow doesn't switch southerly at the surface the low levels are just going to sit under an inversion. The lookout south of Silver Falls popped to 36 when that band went through and then immediately dropped back to 31. 

Yeah, the heavier the precip, the faster the inversion will mix out. With temps above freezing up to and beyond 850mb, there won’t be much dynamic cooling to be had.

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Too bad those ash borers aren't killed off by the cold. The Willamette Valley is full of native ash and in 10 years they will all be dead. Talk about an extreme fire hazard. Can't use them for firewood either because transporting the wood spreads the insect. I guess Oregon State has millions of seeds they are saving so they can replant once the infestation runs its course. 

This may at least kill the murder hornets. 

Already killed all the ash ttees out here. The genome of the few surviving ones are being studied to reintroduce them at some point.

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its this... and also wrecks havoc on orchards.   It looks like it arrived in PA in 1998 and reached WA in 2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_marmorated_stink_bug

Cold snaps will not kill those f**kers. At least not entirely. They’ve survived here through near 0°F temps and ripping winds.

41 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Go to bed everyone. It’s done 😂 image.thumb.png.f32ae2c74ae52dfc62013ace556b2609.png

I mean, hopefully he’s right. Nothing good comes from ZR.

 

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Side note, but does anyone else call a freezing rain event a "silver thaw"? Or is that just a local colloquialism? Growing up, that's what I always heard it referred to as. But I don't think I've ever heard that phrase from anyone outside of Whatcom County. 🤷‍♂️

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Not the most formal definition of freezing rain, but a good repeat of basically what others have been talking about here. This meteorologist's definition of freezing rain is: "rain that freezes shortly after striking a surface that is at or below freezing"

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/210/

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I wouldn't say it's not the same low. Just that models have that low kind if falling apart/becoming very baggy before it makes it to the Coast and reorganizing/being absorbed by the shortwave sliding down the Coast near Forks.

Satellite can be deceiving but the low does still look pretty organized down there. If it still looks that put together down South in a couple hours then something might be amiss that could lead to the Sound holding onto Northerly gradients longer and potentially switching to snow down to Seattle or at least Everett. Worth watching!

Totally confusing for sure! 

That low is coming inland before midnight down there.  

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-truecolor-04_21Z-20240117_map_noBar-58-1n-10-100.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Not the most formal definition of freezing rain, but a good repeat of basically what others have been talking about here. This meteorologist's definition of freezing rain is: "rain that freezes shortly after striking a surface that is at or below freezing"

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/210/

Yep, surfaces here warmed up above freezing today, before precip moved in.

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Not the most formal definition of freezing rain, but a good repeat of basically what others have been talking about here. This meteorologist's definition of freezing rain is: "rain that freezes shortly after striking a surface that is at or below freezing"

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/210/

Is that even a debate? If it rains and freezes 85 minutes later but while its still raining, its still freezing rain.

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