March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's horrible.  We desperately need it to never stop raining per climo.   No blessings today.

We are blessed with clouds. Currently 40 with solid overcast. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Classic spring crash coming on Wednesday.  Been awhile since we've seen a really dynamic spring with lots of warm up/cool down theatrics. Lately it's been stuck pattern followed by stuck pattern. 

It’s true. Would love to see that as a theme this spring; and maybe even this warm season. Those are always the most fun.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are blessed with clouds. Currently 40 with solid overcast. 

Wall to wall blue sky here.  This torture needs to end.   And on Easter Sunday.   Tragic.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wall to wall blue sky here.  This torture needs to end.   And on Easter Sunday.   Tragic.

Wouldn't trade it for a clear day in TX during an eclipse!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like temps most places in the PNW will remain below normal overall for close to a week starting Wednesday.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wouldn't trade it for a clear day in TX during an eclipse!

I would be willing to deal with a 1 month rainy slush-fest if it meant I could get a clear eclipse in Texas.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like temps most places in the PNW will remain below normal overall for close to a week starting Wednesday.

Hopefully it plays out like the GEFS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful morning. Mostly cloudy with puffy white clouds and patches of blue sky. Hit a low of 38 this morning. Nice to close the month out with some 30s.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully it plays out like the GEFS.

What does EPS show?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

What does EPS show?

NSFW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any weather pattern that doesn't bring biosphere destroying heat is a major bummer for the 1% crowd. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What does EPS show?

Similar evolution... EPS tends to run cool and GEFS tends to run a little warm in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any weather pattern that doesn't bring biosphere destroying heat is a major bummer for the 1% crowd. 

Totally.   And don't mix us in with 1% crowd... most of us are in the top .000001%.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Totally.   And don't mix us in with 1% crowd... most of us are in the top .000001%.    

I just had to start a fire to take the chill off. RESURRECTION SUNDAY RUINED. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just had to start a fire to take the chill off. RESURRECTION SUNDAY RUINED. 

Distaster.

I heard people who aren't extremely wealthy absolutely hate nice weather in the spring.   They want winter all year long.   Only the mega-rich enjoy sun and 60s in April.    

[Deweydog]

Any word on whether Jesus saw his shadow this morning?

[TT-SEA]

Not much precip with the system on Wednesday... main band moves through before dawn and then its mostly dry and partly sunny during the day.  

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s true. Would love to see that as a theme this spring; and maybe even this warm season. Those are always the most fun.

Can’t say the result will be to your liking (or even regionally-relevant) but the general circulation from the Indo-Pacific across the subtropical NPAC has definitely changed following this strong niño. The post-2016 -SPMM/+NPMM dipole and associated ITCZ structure is no longer (which is admittedly not what I had expected going into this niño, but in hindsight it should have been obvious and I’m a fool for missing the leading EOF(s)). 

It is common if not expected for super niños (or any healthy niño emerging as an EPAC/costero event) to alter intradecadal axisymmetric background states in the tropics/subtropics (particularly stemming from the IPWP and off-equator NPAC) . Prolific examples of this (albeit w/ different/unique modes of variance) are 72/73, 97/98, and arguably 15/16 as well. More moderate examples include 82/83 (volcano mediated) and 86/87-87/88 (strange 2yr niño w/ out-of-season amplitude maxima).

It’s been too long since the last analogous response (assuming accurate reconstruction) to gauge how this will manifest in the NH pattern in this climate era. Could make no difference in the PNW region at all (or be seasonally restricted). It’s also possible there will be a hemispheric-wide shake-up, for better or worse, or perhaps it will manifest most coherently in other parts of the NH. Whatever the outcome, I’m fairly confident we’ll look back at this niño as another one of those intradecadal shifts, in one form or another.

[TT-SEA]

And then Thursday and Friday are basically dry for the Seattle area as well... and partly sunny.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t say the result will be to your liking (or even regionally-relevant) but the general circulation from the Indo-Pacific across the subtropical NPAC has definitely changed following this strong niño. The post-2016 -SPMM/+NPMM dipole and associated ITCZ structure is no longer (which is admittedly not what I had expected going into this niño, but in hindsight it should have been obvious and I’m a fool for missing the leading EOF(s)). 

It is common if not expected for super niños (or any healthy niño emerging as an EPAC/costero event) to alter intradecadal axisymmetric background states in the tropics/subtropics (particularly stemming from the IPWP and off-equator NPAC) . Prolific examples of this (albeit w/ different/unique modes of variance) are 72/73, 97/98, and arguably 15/16 as well. More moderate examples include 82/83 (volcano mediated) and 86/87-87/88 (strange 2yr niño w/ out-of-season amplitude maxima).

It’s been too long since the last analogous response (assuming accurate reconstruction) to gauge how this will manifest in the NH pattern in this climate era. Could make no difference in the PNW region at all (or be seasonally restricted). It’s also possible there will be a hemispheric-wide shake-up, for better or worse, or perhaps it will manifest most coherently in other parts of the NH. Whatever the outcome, I’m fairly confident we’ll look back at this niño as another one of those intradecadal shifts, in one form or another.

Interesting. We had some real turd burger summers from 2017-2023, so maybe we can move away from that regime a little. I won’t hold my breath though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And then Thursday and Friday are basically dry for the Seattle area as well... and partly sunny.  

Looks like we are more blessed more south. Rich get richer, so to speak.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we are more blessed more south. Rich get richer, so to speak.

Yes... and for us trillionaires up here it is nice as well.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Interesting. We had some real turd burger summers from 2017-2023, so maybe we can move away from that regime a little. I won’t hold my breath though.

The summer heat of that period is unprecedented in our regions recorded history. On so many levels. As whacky as 2021 was with the big heat dome. The summer of 2022 is the one which really stands out to me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yes... and for us trillionaires up here it is nice as well.   

I saw that the top 1% in the US possess 44TR in wealth. Unbelievable. We could do so much good if we seized that wealth. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A summer where the extreme heat is confined to the period between July 4th and Labor Day would be great. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news it is 41 and cloudy still as we approach 11am. Something broke in the Matrix today. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

NWS blend for the eclipse, has trended worse for Missouri and Illinois. I've practically given up on Texas which is a real bummer.

Those maps are almost certainly overdone. I know how these spring patterns work out here, this is a classic archbambault progression. Skies will be largely devoid of clouds under anticyclone descending from Canada, westward until the midway through the belt of return flow (which will be somewhere in the vicinity of the Plains).

Fortunately this is a very stable, predictable pattern. Question is how quickly the next system ejects out of the Rockies. Texas/S-Plains into MO/AR are the areas with reduced certainty.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw that the top 1% in the US possess 44TR in wealth. Unbelievable. We could do so much good if we seized that wealth. 

Capitalism would be destroyed then... and we would become Mother Russia.   All hail Putin! 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In other news it is 41 and cloudy still as we approach 11am. Something broke in the Matrix today. 

God is cursing you.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Capitalism would be destroyed then... and we would become Mother Russia.   All hail Putin! 

If you think we truly live in a capitalist society, I have news for you. Crony capitalism is more like it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In other news it is 41 and cloudy still as we approach 11am. Something broke in the Matrix today. 

That little dip in 850s this weekend that I first noticed on the ENSEMBLES hath delivered.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

That little dip in 850s this weekend that I first noticed on the ENSEMBLES hath delivered.

A brief respite in a continuous sea of torching. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

God is cursing you.  

Blessing. We are blessed on this fine day. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you think we truly live in a capitalist society, I have news for you. Crony capitalism is more like it. 

Let's debate!   

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Interesting. We had some real turd burger summers from 2017-2023, so maybe we can move away from that regime a little. I won’t hold my breath though.

Thing is, even if that regime has terminated it may not be evident until next summer, given the LF/seasonal base state is transitioning as we speak, and will continue to do so through autumn.

Dynamics associated w/ niño —> niña flips (esp under descending +QBO at solar max) tend to produce a pattern that mercilessly roasts the lower-48 during the warm season. Maybe not centered in the West/PNW this time, but a warm outcome is heavily favored just about everywhere IMO. I’m very pessimistic about the summer pattern this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Let's debate!   

We have a separate thread for this. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have a separate thread for this. 

No kidding.    I was afraid you were going to launch into your shock value only BS political crap and worship of Mother Russia. 

[Phil]

I’d be a selfish bastard to root for a bloated 4CH/western ridge again, but d**n if that pattern hasn’t been historic for severe weather here. Looking back to the 19th century, nothing has come close to the 2017-present stretch.

Will be a painful reality check for me if/when summer ridging relocates to the east and shuts it all down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No kidding.    I was afraid you were going to launch into your shock value only BS political crap and worship of Mother Russia. 

Now you are just trolling. Don’t you have some ritual sacrifices to make at Bohemian Grove or something? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I’d be a selfish bastard to root for a bloated 4CH/western ridge again, but d**n if that pattern hasn’t been historic for severe weather here. Looking back to the 19th century, nothing has come close to the 2017-present stretch.

Will be a painful reality check for me if/when summer ridging relocates to the east and shuts it all down.

Seems like it’s our turn not to roast with HISTORIC heat. Good luck and rest in peace. The panic is real.