3/24-3/27 Midwest/Plains Colorado Low(s)

[Tom]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Winter Storm Watch. Next county west is Blizzard Warning. Might get put in this later today, depending on models. Would be the 3rd blizzard this season.  We can go several years without even one  

There's that Palm Sunday Blizzard!  So close, yet so far...

[james1976]

MPX mentioning 2"/hr rates and power outtages possible. Pretty cool wording "it will be snowing so hard"

In other words, it will be snowing
so hard that the atmosphere won`t warm up and transition to rain as
quickly until the precipitation intensity drops off. For that
reason, we anticipate that later this afternoon into the overnight
hours should be the most impactful timeframe for this storm. Travel
will be the primary impact, but the potential for rates of 2"/hr
(especially east of I-35) could lead to power outages as trees
become weighed down by the wet and heavy snow

[james1976]

Radar looks impressive down in IA. That heavy precip is what will be lifting north today.

[gimmesnow]

Kind of interesting accuweather is calling for 2-4 yet everyone else is going for 6-10 in Wausau. Specially since the models on TT say 5-12.

[hawkstwelve]

NWS FSD must not be buying the models that show us on the north side of the rain/snow line. Most recent zone forecast for my county shows up to 1 inch of snow today, just plain ol rain tonight, and up to 1 inch of snow tomorrow. Sure hope they are wrong.

[hawkstwelve]

Meanwhile the NAM, which has been among the more pessimistic models for the rain/snow line here, has been trending in the right direction at the last minute. Not particularly heavy on precip but as long as the line placement cooperates, I'm not too worried about that aspect.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM 3km 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRRR. Very similar to 3km NAM around here. 

[Minny_Weather]

General consensus on the SREF plumes seem to say 10-14". Definitely hoping for the upper end of that.

[Iceresistance]

I would be watching the severe side of the setup, since the HRRR has THIS

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RGEM 

[macminey2]

DMX having to deal with rain / snow line.  Heavy snow falling right now, and from 1/2 inch "little or no" wording,  to 2-4 inches in last forecast update.  Will see if this lasts or changes to rain. 

**update - switching over to rain now 15 minutes after this was taken.  Oh well that was fun while it lasted**

[Minny_Weather]

Radar appears to be filling in and the flake size outside seems to reflect that. Flakes had been microscopic since sunrise and now they're still small, but bigger. 

I also think we might have gotten some freezing rain overnight. There is some ice caked on cars. 23°F.

[CentralNebWeather]

15z RAP 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro with a bullseye over my house. Ok. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Well there it is. I’m now in a Blizzard Warning. I thought it might be coming. Looks like NWS Hastings follows the Euro and NAM models in a lot of their forecasts. 

[Minny_Weather]

This stuff is having a really hard time accumulating. It's falling at a decent clip, but the largest flakes are about the same size as a grain of quinoa and it's the middle of the day in March.

[hawkstwelve]

I'm up to 33 now with drizzle. Lame.

[CentralNebWeather]

I’ve skyrocketed to 57 degrees with a 50 dew. Severe storms this evening with hail possible, rain, freezing rain, sleet then snow overnight, to a blizzard. It’s why I love this part of the country. 

[Madtown]

1" so far up this way 

[sholomar]

precip has been nonexistant so far. This is really what I've come to expect from all major storm predictions. Like every single one. They almost always underdeliver. I'm adding to my list of things I read daily to not overly anticipate these storms anymore and just live in the moment. No looking at forecasts or weather models a week out anymore. That said, I'm gone. Take care, all.

[CentralNebWeather]

Update to Blizzard Warning, slight increases in amounts. 

[Minny_Weather]

28 minutes ago, sholomar said:

precip has been nonexistant so far. This is really what I've come to expect from all major storm predictions. Like every single one. They almost always underdeliver. I'm adding to my list of things I read daily to not overly anticipate these storms anymore and just live in the moment. No looking at forecasts or weather models a week out anymore. That said, I'm gone. Take care, all.

Yeah the Dakotas are getting hosed by this. Sucks to see for those out there as Wisconsin is really cashing in on better rates.

[Minny_Weather]

Dry slot is about to move in... That's obnoxious.

[james1976]

11 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Dry slot is about to move in... That's obnoxious.

I've been watching that. Hopefully it starts filling in. I'm eyeballing maybe 2"

[MinnesotaSnow]

9 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I've been watching that. Hopefully it starts filling in. I'm eyeballing maybe 2"

HRRR and the NAM show this filling in soon. Heaviest rates aren’t modeled to arrived until 6pm or so. 

[Minny_Weather]

8 minutes ago, MinnesotaSnow said:

HRRR and the NAM show this filling in soon. Heaviest rates aren’t modeled to arrived until 6pm or so. 

At least in my neck of the woods (west central MN), I'm not putting too much stock into what happens today. Tomorrow has always been projected as the big day here.

[hawkstwelve]

Not sure what is up with the 18z NAM but it cuts back totals just about everywhere through 10AM tomorrow. It still ends up alright for some on here but would certainly be a bit of disappointment for here.

[Minny_Weather]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure what is up with the 18z NAM but it cuts back totals just about everywhere through 10AM tomorrow. It still ends up alright for some on here but would certainly be a bit of disappointment for here.

Limited moisture. That's a worry that I always have with CO lows and that's a rather annoying nowcast feature of all of these storms.

[hawkstwelve]

From NWS FSD... They have lowered totals pretty much across the board. Our WWA has been cancelled. This might turn out to be quite the dud. Only saving grace is both the Euro and GFS show 6-7 inches falling tomorrow but it'll be a race against the clock to see if my flight to MSP gets cancelled by 10AM. Sure hope my MSP folks can still score big tonight!

Overall the changes to this system are not significant, but there is
a bit of a downward trend in snowfall amounts across the area.
Warmer air should wrap slightly farther to the north and west along
with some drying aloft near and west of the James River which cuts
off the ice bearing layer. This seems to be playing a role in the
decreased snowfall amounts in central SD. Along highway 14 the
potential decrease in snowfall amounts is tied to the slightly
warmer air. Also playing a role in lower snow amounts is a slight
shift southward in the highest QPF amounts.

A broad area of precipitation will develop through the evening and
bring quarter inch per hour rainfall rate potential, which is still
expected to lead to rainfall amounts of around 2 inches in some
locations. Latest trends for areas near and west of the James River
suggest that there will be a fairly long lull in activity through
the evening and early overnight. It looks like this is due to a lack
of saturation in the dendritic layer, so without convection there
may be a fairly distinct back edge tonight, leaving this area on the
lower side. Lift does appear to increase and saturation occurs late
tonight and Monday morning so the potential for blizzard conditions
is still there. Wind gusts to 50 mph still likely. Obviously the
later it goes without snow, the lower the amounts, but still appears
that 5 to 9 inches possible within the winter storm warnings and
blizzard warnings.

[Minny_Weather]

School closures starting to trickle in here. Can continue to hope that my work closes tomorrow, but it usually takes something catastrophic for the government to shut down.

[james1976]

Local met just showed thundersnow down by Austin and Rochester. Heavy snow band across southern MN is expected to lift in to the metro over the next few hours.

[gosaints]

This is crazy.  Thundersnow. Gravity waves 

[Minny_Weather]

17 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Local met just showed thundersnow down by Austin and Rochester. Heavy snow band across southern MN is expected to lift in to the metro over the next few hours.

Yeah I'm jealous of you guys out east. This was never gonna be a high-rate snowfall out here, we were just gonna get foot plus totals from 2 straight days of light to moderate snowfall. Glad some people are seeing cool stuff from this.

[gosaints]

19 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Local met just showed thundersnow down by Austin and Rochester. Heavy snow band across southern MN is expected to lift in to the metro over the next few hours.

It's crazy. Short-lived here but intense

[CentralNebWeather]

No school here tomorrow. I don’t think much will be open in Central and Western Nebraska tomorrow. 

[gosaints]

Now the biggest dendrites I can remember

[james1976]

Starting to snow a bit harder. Temp actually dropped from 31 to 30 so that's a good sign.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro holds firm. 

[Minny_Weather]

Alexandria schools are closed tomorrow, as are pretty much all of the schools in this part of the state.