April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Oh sweet, another excuse to blather on about our preferences!

I digress, as evidenced by my non-response.  

We all have our own unique oddities. Sometimes those oddities are weird weather preferences, sometimes it’s other stuff. No amount of debate on a weather forum will change that.

[TT-SEA]

Lake Washington with Puget Sound in the distance.

Took off to the north then turned east right over downtown Seattle.   We usually take off going south from SEA.   But we usually fly in the cold season and the wind is typically from the SW in the winter.   North wind today and I guess they prefer to take off into the wind.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I digress, as evidenced by my non-response.  

We all have our own unique oddities. Sometimes those oddities are weird weather preferences, sometimes it’s other stuff. No amount of debate on a weather forum will change that.

Suffice to say... any weather you really enjoy is always better at home.  Why we prefer not to travel in the summer.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I digress, as evidenced by my non-response.  

We all have our own unique oddities. Sometimes those oddities are weird weather preferences, sometimes it’s other stuff. No amount of debate on a weather forum will change that.

True, but I will still write long winded manifestos every single chance I get! 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 2016-17 Nino is the stuff of legend. Amazing how we pulled that off. 

Nov/Dec maintained the weak niña base state, but that regime imploded in January. It was quite remarkable, actually.

By February, the niño-costero signal was stronger than the preceding niña ever was. Then it abruptly collapsed in May/June, and a more substantial EPAC niña signal emerged during summer 2017 (though it was still disconnected from the PMM/IPWP state..the entire system state appeared disheveled and confused in the years following the 2015/16 super niño).

I figured you guys would have some intellectual curiosity on that front, but apparently people would rather cling to preconceived notions because of how the weather behaved in their backyards. Sad.  

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Snow at home is just fundamentally different. Never hits the same when you're on vacation.

That’s not true for me, but we’re all different I guess.

We used to go skiing in UT and I enjoyed snow events there just as much as here. One of our trips actually lined up with a historic spring storm there, went to bed with strong SE winds and drizzle, woke up to 12-18” of snow and strong W/NW winds. I’m still salty I slept through the overnight chaos..the progression of weather conditions basically mirrored a strong miller-B nor’easter out here.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

True, but I will still write long winded manifestos every single chance I get! 

It’s healthier to talk about your feelings as opposed to bottling them up. Try it sometime.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lake Washington with Puget Sound in the distance.

Took off to the north then turned east right over downtown Seattle.   We usually take off going south from SEA.   But we usually fly in the cold season and the wind is typically from the SW in the winter.   North wind today and I guess they prefer to take off into the wind.

I always get the in-flight WiFi too. Can only play sudoku and minesweeper for so long  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I always get the in-flight WiFi too. Can only play sudoku and minesweeper for so long  

We get free wifi through T-Mobile on Alaska.   Seattle based companies partnering up.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We get free wifi through T-Mobile on Alaska.   Seattle based companies partnering up.

You have T-mobile? I’ve only heard awful things about them.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s healthier to talk about your feelings as opposed to bottling them up. Try it sometime.

Well this really backfired.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nov/Dec maintained the weak niña base state, but that regime imploded in January. It was quite remarkable, actually.

By February, the niño-costero signal was stronger than the preceding niña ever was. Then it abruptly collapsed in May/June, and a more substantial EPAC niña signal emerged during summer 2017 (though it was still disconnected from the PMM/IPWP state..the entire system state appeared disheveled and confused in the years following the 2015/16 super niño).

I figured you guys would have some intellectual curiosity on that front, but apparently people would rather cling to preconceived notions because of how the weather behaved in their backyards. Sad.  

Not really. It was never anything more than a very weak Nina to begin with, and the weather patterns remained remarkably consistent across the CONUS pretty much throughout so there was no discernible impact from any of the marginal SSTA warming in the equatorial Pacific. It will go down as a weak Nina cold season that for one reason or another had an unusually dominant grip on the weather patterns. Kind of the inverse of a year like 2004-05, which was only ever a very weak Nino but one which developed a solid death grip on the weather patterns nevertheless.

It's cute that you're still so hung up on it, though.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You have T-mobile? I’ve only heard awful things about them.

Not great.   But much cheaper than Verizon was for us.   

[Phil]

Colorado-like diurnal cycle today. 35°F at 7AM to 71°F by noon.

Will miss this come July when it feels nastier at 9PM than it did at noon.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

But you’ll see more sunny/70+ wx in SC than you would in WA. So what are you missing? I don’t get it.

If I was missing a 4” snow event here but traveling somewhere where a 12”+ snowstorm was headed, I wouldn’t be salty about “missing” the 4” one. That’s just weird.

What sounds better, seeing 12" of snow on vacation and then 4" at home a few days after you come back, or see 12" on vacation while 4" falls at home, and then when you come back it's back to boring weather?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

54 currently, low of 22.

 

12z gfs was fine, pretty good for the Oregon cascades but only gave me a couple inches, and the Washington cascades and BC didn't get a lot of snow. Oregon doesn't need the snow, WA and BC does, 00z gfs was better for them.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not really. It was never anything more than a very weak Nina to begin with, and the weather patterns remained remarkably consistent across the CONUS pretty much throughout so there was no discernible impact from any of the marginal SSTA warming in the equatorial Pacific. It will go down as a weak Nina cold season that for one reason or another had an unusually dominant grip on the weather patterns. Kind of the inverse of a year like 2004-05, which was only ever a very weak Nino but one which developed a solid death grip on the weather patterns nevertheless.

It's cute that you're still so hung up on it, though.

The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story.

There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that.

Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen.

It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño 3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11yrs old.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

How deep into the year can you see snow? Seattle proper has arguably seen flurries as deep into the Spring as May 1st (at night w/o accumulation and probably a precip mix of course), so I imagine May is no issue up there.

I've seen 1½ inches of snow in the last week of may, and I'm sure it's snowed here in June (although I've never seen it).

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

What sounds better, seeing 12" of snow on vacation and then 4" at home a few days after you come back, or see 12" on vacation while 4" falls at home, and then when you come back it's back to boring weather?

I think you know the answer to that one.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story.

There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that.

Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen.

It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño 3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11yrs old.

Oh.

Well hopefully that Nino-Costco magic strikes again with the strong Nina event this coming winter. Would hate to see something nasty like a Nino-Big Lots signature emerge.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Oh.

Well hopefully that Nino-Costco magic strikes again with the strong Nina event this coming winter. Would hate to see something nasty like a Nino-Big Lots signature emerge.

This is an informative read:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8

[Phil]

The 2023/24 niño emerged from a niño-costero event. First time we’ve seen that type of evolution before the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift.

This is fascinating stuff when you really dig into it.

[Phil]

A more in-depth analysis of the event from Rollenbeck at al, 2022:

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/4/824

Note the murky overlap between EOF(s) defining niña-modoki and niño-costero. The truth is ENSO has multiple spectra, and the niño 3.4/ONI metric is out of date (and should be done away with entirely) because it fails to capture several components of ENSO variability.

[RentonHill]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story.

There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that.

Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen.

It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño 3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11yrs old.

lol. lmao. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

54 currently, low of 22.

 

12z gfs was fine, pretty good for the Oregon cascades but only gave me a couple inches, and the Washington cascades and BC didn't get a lot of snow. Oregon doesn't need the snow, WA and BC does, 00z gfs was better for them.

Oregon needs all the snow they can get. So happy for the basin areas. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like the west is entering a pretty special era.

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

You have T-mobile? I’ve only heard awful things about them.

You thinking of Alaska Airlines Flight 261? 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I wouldn't want to miss a sunny 70-degree weekend at home in April.   Supply of those perfect days is limited... and always prefer to have stormy/rainy weather at home when we are gone.    

None of us control anything, Tim. Why should you or anyone care about anything.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Not really. It was never anything more than a very weak Nina to begin with, and the weather patterns remained remarkably consistent across the CONUS pretty much throughout so there was no discernible impact from any of the marginal SSTA warming in the equatorial Pacific. It will go down as a weak Nina cold season that for one reason or another had an unusually dominant grip on the weather patterns. Kind of the inverse of a year like 2004-05, which was only ever a very weak Nino but one which developed a solid death grip on the weather patterns nevertheless.

It's cute that you're still so hung up on it, though.

It's almost like ENSO is just one factor among many...albeit probably the best single indicator as far as dominant weather patterns likely to play out.

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like the west is entering a pretty special era.

You feel a lot of things.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I've seen 1½ inches of snow in the last week of may, and I'm sure it's snowed here in June (although I've never seen it).

None of the Bend area stations appear to have ever recorded June snowfall (I know you're a bit higher up). Wickiup Reservoir west of La Pine and about 4,300' has recorded some once - .3" in June 1980. Assuming it wasn't actually hail, which I know has been occasionally recorded as snowfall some places.

DEN officially recorded less than an inch of June snowfall a couple of times, both in the early 1950s.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty impressive storm for almost May.

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

None of us control anything, Tim. Why should you or anyone care about anything.

You missed the point Jared.   We should find joy.   We are only here for a short time.   

Side note... traveling (or moving) to a different place is one way we can actually have control over the weather we experience. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty impressive storm for almost May.

It's an absolute beast on the all the models.   Be nice if it was just moving through and not parking for the next 2 weeks.   But I think the anticipated warm season ridge over the middle of the continent might be becoming established early.    We will have to wait until it expands more.

[Cold Snap]

24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

None of the Bend area stations appear to have ever recorded June snowfall (I know you're a bit higher up). Wickiup Reservoir west of La Pine and about 4,300' has recorded some once - .3" in June 1980. Assuming it wasn't actually hail, which I know has been occasionally recorded as snowfall some places.

DEN officially recorded less than an inch of June snowfall a couple of times, both in the early 1950s.

One record I think is absolutely insane is the 14.3” of snow Bozeman got on June 13, 2001. The fact that happened during meteorological summer is crazy. Though it was recorded on the MSU campus weather station and not at the airport.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I think you know the answer to that one.

No **** Sherlock, obviously I know the answer.

 

It was to prove a point.

[TT-SEA]

73 in North Bend now.

Only 67 in Charleston but forecast there is sunny and 80 for the next several days.   Quite different than home.   Not sure it will even get to 50 with all day rain on Thursday. 

 

[Front Ranger]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You missed the point Jared.   We should find joy.   We are only here for a short time.   

Side note... traveling (or moving) to a different place is one way we can actually have control over the weather we experience. 

I get the point, but I can still tease you - especially when you use that approach most when it fits your preferences/arguments. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I get the point, but I can still tease you - especially when you use that approach most when it fits your preferences/arguments. 

I have actually taken that approach much more when things aren't going the way I like... and not just with weather.    Particularly with things out of my control.

[SnowWillarrive]

48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty impressive storm for almost May.

We need to delay the warming as much as possible for the sake of our snowpack. 
 

The upper part of Mount Rainier right now looks more like late May not late April.