Minny_Weather Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z EPS... Well that's pitiful. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: GFS now has the SLP stalling over Sioux Falls, which is actually exactly what I need for highest totals. Now it just needs to stay like that for 6 days lol Every storm is a little different. But usually SLP center track from Sioux Falls to Duluth and continuing NE is my ideal for winter storms. I'm guessing similar track would benefit you as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Euro was actually a step in the right direction. It finally shows a storm, it's just weak, progressive, and disorganized with highest totals in MB. Baby steps, good trend towards GFS. Terrible run for literally everyone on the sub besides Beltrami and I. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: 12z EPS... welp. I'm sure a significant one will pop up during the 17th -23rd. Looks like I won't be seeing my first inch of snowfall til after I come back or even til '21 yayy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 FGF treading lightly. Quote Summary...Our luck with a quiet December is beginning to run out as models point to a weak Colorado Low moving through the Northern Plains at the end of the coming work week. Confidence is low on how strong it will be and effects the Red River Valley could see, but the chance for snow is on the rise. Monday through Wednesday...The prevailing Rex Block will flatten out as we start the work week, but temperatures will continue to warm for the time being. Above average temperatures can be expected for highs, with places in the southern valley approaching the low 50s mid-week. Sunshine will be abundant and the chance for breezy conditions has been limited to the Devils Lake Basin for Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusts could be greater than 25MPH in this area if mixing outperforms what the models are suggesting. Thursday through Sunday...A pattern change comes to the Northern Plains as the upper level flow becomes more zonal in nature. This allows for more shortwaves and troughs to traverse, and that`s exactly what is expected to happen later this week. A Colorado Low will begin to form and trek northeast mid-week. Majority of guidance is leaning towards an open wave situation, with the jet stream absorbing the disturbance and taking it back into Canada. With this system, the chance for snow increases in the northern plains area. Ensembles have not agreed on how much just yet, so we will continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds. As of now, only confident in mentioning there could be low-end impacts including accumulating snowfall in the area. To start the weekend, we will return to more average temperatures for December and a zonal pattern in the jet stream will continue. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 0z ICON going big with the first and second wave. Will post map as soon as it loads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 ICON runs right through Iowa. Looks like heavy snow in the Dakota’s and a lot of Minnesota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 0z ICON 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 LOL. Wow ICON. Ultimate troll job for us in Iowa. First system just to the north. Second system just to the south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 0z ICON still dumping at hr 180 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: LOL. Wow ICON. Ultimate troll job for us in Iowa. First system just to the north. Second system just to the south. Almost exactly how the precip fell in Oct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 And probably 50 degrees here lol Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z ICON Bud..you are looking good w this one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z ICON still dumping at hr 180 Track looks golden....... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Attm, its beautiful outside. Temp at 28F under clear skies. Next week looks just about perfect to do stuff outside the house (wish I had the time), but yes, partly cloudy skies w temps in the 30s and 40s by mid week. Dry stretch of weather till about Friday. Not bad for this time of the year. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 GFS stays about the same. Not quite as strong as previous runs, but those were always overdone. Track holds similar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 GFS maintains only one wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 GFS is significantly worse for me. Storm cuts less and is way more progressive so that knocks my total down to 3. Thankfully Euro is still way North so hopefully the 2 models meet somewhere in the middle. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 00z Euro...will it be one wave or two wave??? Both the Euro and GFS suggest one wave will eject out of the SW... 00z GEFS clearly highlighting a TX Panhandle hard cutter... The noticeable trend among the models has been the quicker ejection of the cut-off low in the SW which has always been the questions among the models. Back in late Oct, the models had a devil of a time trying to figure this out and its been happening again this time, until now, however...it appears that it will eject faster and phase with the N stream energy sliding down S/SE out B.C. Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, I'm seeing the model picking up on stronger blocking over the Arctic circle and near Hudson Bay which allows the system to slow and dig as the SLP tracks along an elongated CF draped across the central Sub. Interestingly, it looks like this may be a system whereby it slows/deepens as it tracks towards the Lower Lakes. The 00z EPS has the main energy tracking a lot farther SE thru OK/MO/C IL/SE MI, thus shifting the snow mean farther SE now through S WI. In terms of the 500mb N Hemisphere pattern, we continue to see more blocking over the Arctic regions as we get closer in time... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Looking ahead into the following week, run to run inconsistencies continue, but the trend is towards a more active pattern and last night's 00z EPS provides a glimmer of hope that the northern Sub begins to cash in on the white gold. For fun, I thought I'd post the 00z Euro Control for the weekend storm that has a delayed strengthening of a secondary wave along a CF boundary which spins up heading into the Lower Lakes. If we are to believe the Euro Strat forecast, how do you get N.A. cold??? This would be a classic Cross Polar Flow pattern...if this continues...watch for colder trends into parts of the N and E Sub... Siberia SSW showing signs of enlightenment... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 RIP my hopes for a decent storm this weekend 12/6/2020-12/6/2020 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 I think I like where I sit 5ish days out. Need some snow. Wi trails open the 15th and as of now we have a long ways to get there. GFS and Euro would get it done with 12"+ on the ground by next Wed. Just need to get the flakes out of model land and on the ground! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Nice storm showing up the following wed-thu as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 6z ICON continues to weaken and push south the first piece of energy, while holding back energy over the Rockies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Yesterdays high of 31 at Grand Rapids was the coldest high since February 28 when the high reached 27. At this time it is cloudy and 28 here. As of this AM there has not been any rain or snow reported at Grand Rapids this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 If there aren't changes in today's Euro Weeklies, specifically the EPO, it's going to be hard to press any sustained cold farther south. On the flip side, if the blocking near Greenland grows stronger, it can allow for storms to dig a bit and allow for some opportunities. I wish the CPC site would update their arctic oscillations forecast bc it has stopped at 11/25. This would provide me with some solid data but I'm running blind right now. Darn it! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 NAM just about coming into range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 00z ICON vs. 12z ICON Friday at 3pm on 00z. Friday at 3pm on 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Was just about to comment on the ICON. What a joke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 00z ICON vs. 12z ICON Friday at 3pm on 00z. Friday at 3pm on 12z Went to far south with the main energy (I hope) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 The ICON has never proven to be a very good model though. And it's showing the reasons why right now. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Blocking is looking stronger per the 12z GFS....interesting to see the ICON dig the second wave... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 yikes so much for a hard cutter? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Been in the 20's here since Saturday evening. This ain't November.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Can we just lock in that 12z GFS. Lol. I stay all snow. That defo band just sits overhead. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Well the GFS got more interesting for those of us in Iowa. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Well the GFS got more interesting for those of us in Iowa. I still think there are more surprises ahead with the models. I will say, however, it is looking better for us farther south esp if the blocking keeps trending stronger. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 ok, let's play that game again. 00z GFS vs 12z GFS. 00z GFS at 6pm Friday 12z GFS at 6pm Friday 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Canadian still cuts the low right through Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Canadian is much more SE from previous run though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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