December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[mlgamer]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON is coming around @mlgamer  I think we will have some wintery weather next weekend.  Lets see if this starts a trend.

@ClintonI agree. It will be interesting to watch the models sort this out and see what we end up with. I still favor a track that might leave me on the northern edge (If I'm reading the LRC right), but we'll see...

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@ClintonI agree. It will be interesting to watch the models sort this out and see what we end up with. I still favor a track that might leave me on the northern edge (If I'm reading the LRC right), but we'll see...

I also favor a track that leaves us on the northern edge but we will have several more days before we have any kinda idea on the track.

[bud2380]

GFS starting to lock in to a Dakota special. Parts of Nebraska, South Dakota and into Minnesota starting to look pretty good on the GFS

[bud2380]

ICON and GFS look very similar 

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

Canadian also looks like the GFS. Crazy how quick we nearly have model consensus. Just need the Euro to hop on board. Looks like rain for most of Iowa. 

[Minny_Weather]

Holy hell, count me in on the GFS. Just move it a bit North and I'm jacked.

It currently has the low stalling over Sioux City for nearly 24 hours. That'd be amazing.

[bud2380]

29 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Holy hell, count me in on the GFS. Just move it a bit North and I'm jacked.

It currently has the low stalling over Sioux City for nearly 24 hours. That'd be amazing.

You’ll love the Canadian. 

[gimmesnow]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, that's pretty sad for all the winter sports up north when businesses count on mother nature to lay down the snow.  I took a peak at one of the ski resorts I used to go to up in the U.P. and it looks like they are blowing snow in a frenzy.

https://www.bigsnow.com/live-cams

They need some snow up there badly...as do much of us snow geese in this Sub!  00z Euro flashing some sort of secondary wave that digs deep into the S Plains (which is one of this year's LRC exhibits) and tracks up towards the GL's.

 

Comparing yesterday's 12z EPS to tonight's 00z EPS you can see the shift SE of the models "thinking" of next weekends storm system.  It appears this could very well be a 2-wave system the way things stand now.  Similar to what we saw in the 1st cycle.

Yesterday's 12z EPS...

 

Last nights 00z EPS...

 

 

It's very sad for a lot of places. Last year my hill had the earliest opening ever, November 7th. This year, the first day was Dec 3rd, almost a month later than the previous year. When your sport seasons runs only from half of November, December, January, February, and half of March, losing an entire month or two weeks is a really big deal.

Thankfully their money making times are Christmas vacation, President's Day, and MLK Day. Most people don't expect to be doing this stuff when it's 40s or 30s outside and we haven't had snow. But they need it to look like winter before Christmas to pull in big numbers. People really under-estimate the ability to make snow.

Alpine Valley has two 400hp diesel powered water pumps and over 100 snow guns.

The absolute worst thing that can happen to a ski hill, at least around Chicago, is rain in Christmas, President's Day, and MLK. Hopefully this season turns around and we get some cold, there's talk of only being open monday and tuesday this week because of the warm and trying to save the base.

[Clinton]

The CMC has the strong second piece but cuts it hard would be great for a lot of drought-stricken areas

[bud2380]

UK appears to be weak again like last night. And much further SE. 

[Madtown]

Give me the gfs....looks like another system next Tues/Wed. Need 10-12" on the ground to get the trails opened up!

[OmahaSnowFan]

57 Tuesday and 64 Wednesday. Sign me up!

[Minny_Weather]

C'mon Euro.... Trend towards GFS

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

C'mon Euro.... Trend towards GFS

Euro went crazy for phasing here while the GFS snoozed. Ended up trolled heavily by the Euro and GEM, much less so by the GFS. Now for you, the opposite happening, lol. I'm left not trusting the Ops outside of 48 hrs. If the Ensembles aren't excited, neither am I at this point.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Euro went crazy for phasing here while the GFS snoozed. Ended up trolled heavily by the Euro and GEM, much less so by the GFS. Now for you, the opposite happening, lol. I'm left not trusting the Ops outside of 48 hrs. If the Ensembles aren't excited, neither am I at this point.

All signs pointing towards a NW cutter at this stage of the game and after looking at the GEFS, ya, not to excited over here.  Gotta build that base up north so I'm not disappointed.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

All signs pointing towards a NW cutter at this stage of the game and after looking at the GEFS, ya, not to excited over here.  Gotta build that base up north so I'm not disappointed.

In winters like I and others are expecting this to be (98-99), there is no building a sustained snow-pack that works it's way south into/thru the lower 48. You just get random regional storms and "come-n-go" type of snow cover. So, I'm not expecting nor hoping for the northern tier to "get theirs first". Unfortunately, this is a winter where it's grab what you can, when you can so I'll have to remain disappointed if SWMI continues to get whiffed by this potential as well. Besides, the northern tier has had several above avg snowfall winters in the last 5 yrs. I'd be fine with that Euro that gives me a couple inches and enough cold to keep it around a while. Would be nice if it at least felt like the holidays some time in the next 3 wks.

[bud2380]

Euro is significantly different than the GFS but precip maps aren’t loading on pivotal so can’t tell for sure. It shows an elongated area of low pressure with two separate lows. One in MN and another in TX eventually merging and forming a strong low right over Chicago. My guess is it looks good for Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

[westMJim]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Grand Rapids is on track to have a top ten in the lasted first day where the maximum stays at or below 32. With highs forecasted to stay above 32 for the rest of this week and if that indeed happens Grand Rapids will be it the top ten. Here is the current top ten latest. Note all are in the month of December.

1.       December 30, 1923

2.       December 24, 2001

3.       December 23, 2012

4.       December 21, 1939

5.       December 20, 1998

6.       December 17, 1999

7.       December 15, 1953

8.       December 13, 2004

9.       December 12, 2003

10.   December 11, 1993

At a later date I will look and see how the above winters ended up in temperature and total snow fall.

We will have to see how today plays out. So far today the official high at Grand Rapids is 31 and if it stays at or below 32 for the rest of today Grand Rapids will not make a top ten for the latest first 32 day.
At this time here at my house it is 32 and cloudy and the last official reading at GRR was 31.

[Hawkeye]

7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro is significantly different than the GFS but precip maps aren’t loading on pivotal so can’t tell for sure. It shows an elongated area of low pressure with two separate lows. One in MN and another in TX eventually merging and forming a strong low right over Chicago. My guess is it looks good for Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

The stronger initial northern low makes it difficult for the southern low to wrap up before exiting the region.

[Niko]

Cloudy attm w temp at 34F.

[bud2380]

The Euro actually sucks for just about everyone. Might sneak out an inch in Iowa. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The stronger initial northern low makes it difficult for the southern low to wrap up before exiting the region.

I think the GEM shows this pretty well. The GEM forecast image is 47 days from the Oct 27 image. Oct 27 the closed low was over the southwest with a dip around Minnesota, GEM image shows the opposite this time around with the southern energy never closing off and the closed low over MN. Interesting to see if that happens. (DISCLAIMER: I don't claim to be a guru so I could be way off...)

 

[Minny_Weather]

Euro's a dumb model anyway. All hail GEM!

[hlcater]

GFS would be good for a cold core tornado event with Friday's system across IA into NE MO. Would need that amped surface low, but something worth keeping an eye on if that solution becomes favored. 

[Madtown]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

All signs pointing towards a NW cutter at this stage of the game and after looking at the GEFS, ya, not to excited over here.  Gotta build that base up north so I'm not disappointed.

how far nw?

[Niko]

Jaster...stay tuned!

NOAA's:  Todays 4pm package

It is looking increasing likely our dry spell will come to an end
late Friday-Saturday. Good consensus with the upper level low over
the Great Basin this afternoon dropping south and taking residence
off the Baja California coast early next week, and then getting
booted off to the northeast/phasing with the northern stream energy.
Thus, looks like sub-tropical Pacific moisture will be surging north
through the Mississippi River Valley on Friday as cyclogenesis occurs
across the Midwest. Issue right now, is we may be looking at two
surface waves tracking through, as there is multiple upper waves to
interact. Too far out to get specific, as wind and snow could also be
in play on the backside for the Weekend if the Euro verifies.

[Niko]

Attm..its cloudy and chilly w temps mainly in the low 30s. A few spotty flurries have been spotted.

[whatitdo]

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh 

-- Potential for strong low moving through Great Lakes Fri-Sun --

Models have been hinting at a stronger low taking aim on the Great
Lakes for late week into the weekend for several days now. Today`s
models continue that trend. A deepening plains low is expected by
Friday evening which will then move through the Great Lakes over
the weekend. Too early to nail down details with all the usual
caveats applying here which a phasing system this far out in the
forecast. The models have been consistent on some sort of phasing
though so confidence is increasing in rain...snow and wind over
the weekend. As it stands now it appears rain will spread into the
area on Friday, transition to rain and snow on Saturday and then
into lake effect snow on Sunday. At this point it appears that we
will be on the warmer side of the system with somewhat limited
chances for a heavier swath of snow. West Michigan`s better chance
for snow will be in the lake effect behind the system. That
said...much can change at this range in the forecast and it likely
will. Bottom line...stay tuned to later forecasts as we watch
this system for next weekend. There isn`t much sensible weather
until we get to that part of the forecast anyway.

What is it specifically about the upcoming system next weekend that makes lake effect snow a potential for us? It won't verify though. (I'm trying to jinx myself)

[westMJim]

It only reached 32 here at my house. At this time it looks like the official high for Grand Rapids today will be 31 so this winter will not be in the top ten for the latest day of staying at or below 32 at Grand Rapids. As for snow fall Grand Rapids remains at just 0.4" total for the season so far. Grand Rapids is still on track for have one of the latest winter seasons before getting 1" of total snow fall. Going back to 1950 only two winter seasons have gotten this late before getting 1" of snow fall 1998 and 1999.

[westMJim]

26 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh 

-- Potential for strong low moving through Great Lakes Fri-Sun --

Models have been hinting at a stronger low taking aim on the Great
Lakes for late week into the weekend for several days now. Today`s
models continue that trend. A deepening plains low is expected by
Friday evening which will then move through the Great Lakes over
the weekend. Too early to nail down details with all the usual
caveats applying here which a phasing system this far out in the
forecast. The models have been consistent on some sort of phasing
though so confidence is increasing in rain...snow and wind over
the weekend. As it stands now it appears rain will spread into the
area on Friday, transition to rain and snow on Saturday and then
into lake effect snow on Sunday. At this point it appears that we
will be on the warmer side of the system with somewhat limited
chances for a heavier swath of snow. West Michigan`s better chance
for snow will be in the lake effect behind the system. That
said...much can change at this range in the forecast and it likely
will. Bottom line...stay tuned to later forecasts as we watch
this system for next weekend. There isn`t much sensible weather
until we get to that part of the forecast anyway.

What is it specifically about the upcoming system next weekend that makes lake effect snow a potential for us? It won't verify though. (I'm trying to jinx myself)

With a departing storm system and cold air if we can get a wind off the lake there would be a chance of lake effect snow. Depending on how far to the northwest the low tracks there could be a chance of a west to northwest flow and that could bring some lake effect. Should know more as we get closer to the weekend. Here at Grand Rapids the total snow fall so far has only been 0.4" this is well below average and we are falling more so every day. At Grand Rapids we are nearing 10" below average at this time. Up north it now looks like all locations are now below average for the date

https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, westMJim said:

We will have to see how today plays out. So far today the official high at Grand Rapids is 31 and if it stays at or below 32 for the rest of today Grand Rapids will not make a top ten for the latest first 32 day.
At this time here at my house it is 32 and cloudy and the last official reading at GRR was 31.

Still have 33F high in my grid, but KRMY so far high has been only 29F and has dropped. First freezing or below day may be in the making. Also of note. A sizeable pond near my work where just yesterday the usual flock of Canadian geese were floating was completely iced over. That truly surprised me tbh with all the mild we've had recently. Frozen ponds are always a good sign per old school rules.

[bud2380]

18z GFS holds serve with a strong and NW solution. Similar to 12z through 120 hours 

[james1976]

GFS continues with the hard cutter solution 

[jaster220]

47 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh 

-- Potential for strong low moving through Great Lakes Fri-Sun --

Models have been hinting at a stronger low taking aim on the Great
Lakes for late week into the weekend for several days now. Today`s
models continue that trend. A deepening plains low is expected by
Friday evening which will then move through the Great Lakes over
the weekend. Too early to nail down details with all the usual
caveats applying here which a phasing system this far out in the
forecast. The models have been consistent on some sort of phasing
though so confidence is increasing in rain...snow and wind over
the weekend. As it stands now it appears rain will spread into the
area on Friday, transition to rain and snow on Saturday and then
into lake effect snow on Sunday. At this point it appears that we
will be on the warmer side of the system with somewhat limited
chances for a heavier swath of snow. West Michigan`s better chance
for snow will be in the lake effect behind the system. That
said...much can change at this range in the forecast and it likely
will. Bottom line...stay tuned to later forecasts as we watch
this system for next weekend. There isn`t much sensible weather
until we get to that part of the forecast anyway.

What is it specifically about the upcoming system next weekend that makes lake effect snow a potential for us? It won't verify though. (I'm trying to jinx myself)

Well, the first thing going our way is climo. We will be deep enough into an actual winter month vs just the shoulder season. Presuming a phased storm there should be at least seasonally cold air in play along with favorable saturation in the dendritic growth layer. The odds of a good back-side hit increase even further the stronger the SLP. Low baro really increases lift, especially if the storm is still strengthening as it moves off to the NE. This is worth our attention and holds some promise.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

GFS continues with the hard cutter solution 

Does it also indicate any 2nd wave?

[Minny_Weather]

GFS now has the SLP stalling over Sioux Falls, which is actually exactly what I need for highest totals.

Now it just needs to stay like that for 6 days lol

[bud2380]

The GFS has 3 storms in a week that all target the dakotas and Minnesota. It’s going to show 2-3 feet of snow on this run for large areas. I’m just happy it is showing active weather. Gotta think with snow in place the baroclinic zone will dip further south and alter the storm track some. 

[Clinton]

18z ICON ejects a small wave over C. Neb but hold the main energy back over the Rockies.  Where the main wave goes after that is the question.

[Tom]

12z EPS...