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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Folks, we have just about made it through 2020, but first, we need to get through the last month of the calendar year and the start of met Winter!  Who's ready??  If there is anyone on here that is more eager to see a fast start to winter...raise your hands up in the air!  Finally, after many false starts in years past, most of our Sub across the eastern/southern tier will indeed be "flipping the script" this year in 2020.  After analyzing a ton of data and using LR  pattern recognition techniques, it does appear highly likely that the long awaited start to met Winter will feature an exciting start if you live in the eastern Sub.  On the flip side, those of you up north and even out west, you'll prob have to wait till mid month for some action.

Where shall we begin???  Let's start at the top of the atmosphere at 10mb and focus on the evolution of the Polar Vortex.  Even though the models are predicting a strong PV, similar to 2013-14, it does favor a NW Flow aloft and some slight influence of warming near Siberia/N PAC that will influence the PV and "funnel" cold air into North America.

gfs-ens_Tz10Mean_nhem_19.png

 

My gut told me early on that this would be the year of the return of the "Greenland Block".  Wouldn't ya know it, in a timely fashion, it will appear as we open up December.  It took a while, but in recent days, all the modeling is picking up on an expansive block to open up December.  

1.png

 

When do I think the action will shift farther west???  Well, the tool that has been rock solid for me this season is the clues up in the Strat and where warm/cold pools are forming.  Take a look at the last frames in the 50mb animation below right around Nov 20-22nd...you see the blue colors (trough) shift from the EC down into the SW.  This is when we will enter a period of SW Flow aloft and I think this is the time when the LRC had some interesting storm systems.  I'll have to look back in more detail in the days ahead.  I'm guessing the Week of the 13th (lucky #) will feature a mid month rally, or rather, a very active period.  Using the BSR as guidance, there are potentially multiple storm systems we will be tracking during this week.

 

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

The target period for when this SW Flow pattern starts is between the 12th-15th and the looks according to the BSR would translate towards a "cutter", may be hard cutter....followed by more storm systems leading up towards the Winter Solstice period that would track farther south.  Could this be a "share the wealth" month for all???  Let's hope mother nature can contribute to all of us in the snow dept and have a fantastic holiday season!  Let's discuss....

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_fh-24-150.gif

 

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It becomes a highly-amplified, blocked-up pattern, but for everyone too far west to get anything from the potentially-big eastern storm it's a total snoozer.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

This storm stalls for days in Oh.....wow!

I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern.  Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air.  Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later.  I'm liking the trends at this range.  Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off.  

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28 minutes ago, Tom said:

I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern.  Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air.  Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later.  I'm liking the trends at this range.  Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off.  

Its a beast!

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

It's funny how one run can get you pumped up, but then realize this isn't your storm in W. Michigan.  Going to be APP/ East coast storm.  Congrats Pennsylvania and the Upper NE.  

Needs to get it's butt further north for sure!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern.  Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air.  Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later.  I'm liking the trends at this range.  Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off.  

After the UK lost the phased look, was sure the Euro Would follow. I've seen the EC go huge 3 consecutive runs just to fold it's hand and admit to bluffing. I think it has gone 4 in a row now so I'm in uncharted territory tbh. It will be interesting to see if it can lead the way and shine-up it's tarnished crown. Ofc I'm cheering for that (and a little bump north). 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

It's funny how one run can get you pumped up, but then realize this isn't your storm in W. Michigan.  Going to be APP/ East coast storm.  Congrats Pennsylvania and the Upper NE.  

 

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

So far out.  Euro has been bad lately, hopefully it gets some support soon.  

Need the Euro strength but the GEM's track = KISMET

 

snku_acc.us_mw(1).png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR gives a very good write-up treatment of the situation as of earlier today. Much more impressive breakdown than typically seen.

-- Possible wintry weather early next week --

Projecting the location and intensity of phased systems is a vexing
issue, and next week is no exception. A trough is currently moving
into the Pacific Northwest region and models are coming into
agreement that the southern portion of the trough will detach and
become an upper low cutoff over the Four Corners region. This upper
low is forecast to migrate east over the Rockies before attempting
to phase with a secondary, digging trough over the Midwest and Great
Lakes region. Where this phasing occurs will determine if we get
significant snowfall or not.

Not surprisingly, current long range guidance continues to feature
spread with where the upper level phasing induces low level
cyclogenesis. A probabilistic approach based on ensemble data
indicates more members are favoring cyclogenesis across the lower
Ohio Valley or Appalachians Monday into Tuesday, as opposed to the
Great Lakes. However, depending on how intense the upper level
phasing is, a negatively tilted upper low could substantially pivot
and deepen the surface low toward the north/northwest, potentially
impacting Lower Michigan. That scenario is supported by some ECE
members though most others prefer an Appalachian/East Coast track.
The GEFS and CMC members favor the Appalachian track as well.

Let`s suppose the scenario occurs where a deep/intense phasing of
the systems near the Great Lakes induces a deep surface low across
northern OH / southeast MI. Current and past runs of the ECMWF/GEM
would support double digit snow totals (spread out over a couple
days) across much of the region, which would make this the first
significant winter storm to impact Michigan this season. However,
assuming the phasing occurs across the Appalachians (ECE, GFS,
GEFS, CMC), we see only minor snowfall, or perhaps none at all.
Current odds are tilted in this direction but it is obviously
something we are watching closely given the higher impacts that
could potentially occur.
  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR gives a very good write-up treatment of the situation as of earlier today. Much more impressive breakdown than typically seen.


-- Possible wintry weather early next week --

Projecting the location and intensity of phased systems is a vexing
issue, and next week is no exception. A trough is currently moving
into the Pacific Northwest region and models are coming into
agreement that the southern portion of the trough will detach and
become an upper low cutoff over the Four Corners region. This upper
low is forecast to migrate east over the Rockies before attempting
to phase with a secondary, digging trough over the Midwest and Great
Lakes region. Where this phasing occurs will determine if we get
significant snowfall or not.

Not surprisingly, current long range guidance continues to feature
spread with where the upper level phasing induces low level
cyclogenesis. A probabilistic approach based on ensemble data
indicates more members are favoring cyclogenesis across the lower
Ohio Valley or Appalachians Monday into Tuesday, as opposed to the
Great Lakes. However, depending on how intense the upper level
phasing is, a negatively tilted upper low could substantially pivot
and deepen the surface low toward the north/northwest, potentially
impacting Lower Michigan. That scenario is supported by some ECE
members though most others prefer an Appalachian/East Coast track.
The GEFS and CMC members favor the Appalachian track as well.

Let`s suppose the scenario occurs where a deep/intense phasing of
the systems near the Great Lakes induces a deep surface low across
northern OH / southeast MI. Current and past runs of the ECMWF/GEM
would support double digit snow totals (spread out over a couple
days) across much of the region, which would make this the first
significant winter storm to impact Michigan this season. However,
assuming the phasing occurs across the Appalachians (ECE, GFS,
GEFS, CMC), we see only minor snowfall, or perhaps none at all.
Current odds are tilted in this direction but it is obviously
something we are watching closely given the higher impacts that
could potentially occur.

Looks like they think it’s less likely to hit the midwest despite euro’s consistency in the track to do just that. What you thinking? 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z EC with snow still falling over Mich at the end of the run.  It's a little weaker than it has been but the track is still good for you guys.

1606845600-ul2k30ORCWs.png

1606845600-gcGxCuuVEI0.png

Thx, btw, what's the "Ens [C]" exactly? And yeah, that's a lot weaker actually, but glad to see it not just vanish.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Euro Control.  The CMC held serve aswell.

Nice! (CMC and GEM are one and the same, no? confused by GRR's AFD saying the GEM was for the Lakes, but the CMC was more east)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I always thought so, that is confusing.

Here it is..

Quote

Current and past runs of the ECMWF/GEM
would support double digit snow totals (spread out over a couple
days) across much of the region, which would make this the first
significant winter storm to impact Michigan this season. However,
assuming the phasing occurs across the Appalachians (ECE, GFS,
GEFS, CMC), we see only minor snowfall, or perhaps none at all.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z GEM comes up east of the Mitt and keeps moving instead of curling back and spinning around for 2 extra days. It even clips my county with a second storm 48 hrs after the first one has moved out of the lakes.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Looks like they think it’s less likely to hit the midwest despite euro’s consistency in the track to do just that. What you thinking? 

It's tough to say at this point if the Euro is legit. Phase-bombs are a serious rarity around the OHV/Lakes region so that would argue against it. Over the years a model or two will flash a run showing such in the fantasy long range, but then immediately drop it. Iirc, there was a better looking chance leading up to Christmas of 2014 but the cold air failed to get pulled south out of Canada so it ended up a dud. Dec 2014 was a warm month similar to what we've got going on right now fwiw. I referenced the Nov 1950 storm which gave this area about 7" but that was during an extremely cold autumn regime. There is Nov 2-3. 1966 which phased and delivered the goods (12" KBTL) and the only other time I've seen a mild regime go bomb cyclone for Michigan was 11/16/89 and that one had zero degree airmass just north of Superior to work with. Maps in order of events.

 

regional-snowfall-index-map-november-22-30-1950.png

Nov 1966 Snowstorm totals.png

19891118 072 hr Snowfall.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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