December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom 16887]

00z 25th LR GEFS....looking more and more wintry...

 

[Clinton 4429]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Long ways ahead, but there may be a signal growing that a SSW event could be brewing right around the Week of the 13th or just prior across Siberia.  This can lead to perturbing the PV in a similar fashion as it did back in '13-'14, supporting a more "reflective" look which can seed some real cold arctic air into North America.  Interestingly, the models are starting to see a much colder look by the 2nd week of Dec.  00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast and 500mb pattern is telling me to watch for colder trends.

 

 

00z GEFS 500mb...way back in Sept/Oct, the pattern near Scandinavia was catching my eye and would be a crucial part of this Winter's pattern.  It is indeed playing a big role for North America.

 

Is there enough time to dislodge the PV by the 2nd week of Dec?  

[Tom 16887]

Just now, Clinton said:

Is there enough time to dislodge the PV by the 2nd week of Dec?  

I don't think it will dislodge the PV but more or less send a "finger" into N.A. based on the maps I posted above.  I do firmly believe the Hudson Bay vortex will be back in action by Week 2.  I hope to dial in on this pattern and the LRC over the next few days.

[Niko 7225]

I think the main issue here is which track does this storm take. We all know that there will be a high impact winterstorm.

Question is:  does it go a little too far east, is it a Appalachian runner and etc.

[Niko 7225]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That'd be great, but I'm not seeing that from the GEFS. Where did you see that bud?

Nevermind..mistake on my end!

[Niko 7225]

The Euro was a sweet one here last nite for SEMI...WHOA! Spins and spins for days east from mby, dumping snow like crazy. Danggggg!

[Niko 7225]

This looks scary....

 

[FAR_Weather 5220]

Lol.... NW OH is going to have a big dog a few months after I move out of there.

Meanwhile, absolute zero snow accumulation on every model West of the Mississippi.

[CentralNebWeather 4715]

11 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol.... NW OH is going to have a big dog a few months after I move out of there.

Meanwhile, absolute zero snow accumulation on every model West of the Mississippi.

I was just thinking about this lack of snowfall, especially for the Northern Plains. We really need a big snow year in Colorado and Wyoming for snowmelt in the Spring to start refilling reservoirs. Not a very good start for sure as the drought around here drags on. 

[jaster220 8344]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

It is looking more and more likely that there will be an impactful system to track..time for a storm thread today after 12z runs???  With that being said, the 00z Euro continues to show a powerful storm but the 00z Ukie now the only model not showing anything when it was the one which was most consistent a day or two ago.  Chitown riding the edge with this one as well as WI peeps.

 

 

 

00z EPS holding steadfast and pointing towards an OHV major winter storm in the making...I think this storm may make up all the dud years this region has recently seen.  Ya'll ready???

That EPS Snow shield is like Jan '78 shifted just a few counties east. Incredible. 21" total in my old home region of SEMI. That'd be like #2 all-time to 1967 for that area. Nuts! I do fine here, but man SWMI needs to get it's winter mojo back! Even mentioned in that Wood TV8 winter outlook how SEMI beat SWMI in snow totals last winter and now potentially scores better with this system. Niko buddy, you're styling over there. This could be Nov 30/Dec 1 1974 revisited.

[jaster220 8344]

42 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol.... NW OH is going to have a big dog a few months after I move out of there.

Meanwhile, absolute zero snow accumulation on every model West of the Mississippi.

I hinted at bad winters chasing you around the country in the Nov thread. Like in deer hunting, two styles. You move about seeking deer, or you wait it out for them to come to you, lol

[mlgamer 516]

Thought this was interesting in the 11/26 morning Wilmington (OH) AFD. They seem to be downplaying things the same way TOP KS always does. I thought the comparison to the Snow Bowl storm was interesting (bolded).

 

Quote

Keys to remember about some of the extreme snowfall amounts being
seen on a few deterministic/ensemble members:  1) these static ratio
amounts do not account for the very warm ground temperatures
(remember Sunday`s temps in the 50s) 2) these do not take into
account the degree of compaction that would occur with a long
duration wet snow event that is leading to some of the very high
totals 3) boundary layer temperatures will remain 30-35 during any
snow that falls which means slower accumulation rates and more
compaction especially during daylight hours and 4) this storm has no
bitter arctic air in place or available to tap - unlike a very
similar setup 70 years ago when the Snow Bowl storm produced in
excess of 12-15" in the ILN CWA. That storm had surface temps in the
single digits and teens. Also pointing against the extreme solutions
is a very narrow dendritic growth zone - less than 100mb on forecast
soundings.  So we will need to watch ensembles closely in the next
couple of days to see if a trend emerges on a number of fronts.
Definitely a forecast to stay tuned to through the holiday weekend.

 

[GDR 665]

Gfs rocks Ohio with a little back into se Michigan 

[Niko 7225]

45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That EPS Snow shield is like Jan '78 shifted just a few counties east. Incredible. 21" total in my old home region of SEMI. That'd be like #2 all-time to 1967 for that area. Nuts! I do fine here, but man SWMI needs to get it's winter mojo back! Even mentioned in that Wood TV8 winter outlook how SEMI beat SWMI in snow totals last winter and now potentially scores better with this system. Niko buddy, you're styling over there. This could be Nov 30/Dec 1 1974 revisited.

You mean this:

Surface Maps below are from 7am Sun 12/1/74 and 7am Mon 12/2/74, it's a shame the Sun 1pm is not available as that's when the heaviest snow was falling (we are talking several hours of 1/4 mile vsby or less)! You can also see by the maps, only the Southeast portion of the state was affected with the heaviest /near 20"/ in the Detroit Metro area!

This looks like it was a doozy bud. Were you living in SEMI at that point of time.

[jaster220 8344]

13 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Thought this was interesting in the 11/26 morning Wilmington (OH) AFD. They seem to be downplaying things the same way TOP KS always does. I thought the comparison to the Snow Bowl storm was interesting (bolded).

 

 

Yep. Same contrasts/concerns I posted about in the Nov thread last night.

[jaster220 8344]

12 hours ago, Niko said:

You mean this:

Surface Maps below are from 7am Sun 12/1/74 and 7am Mon 12/2/74, it's a shame the Sun 1pm is not available as that's when the heaviest snow was falling (we are talking several hours of 1/4 mile vsby or less)! You can also see by the maps, only the Southeast portion of the state was affected with the heaviest /near 20"/ in the Detroit Metro area!

This looks like it was a doozy bud. Were you living in SEMI at that point of time.

Yes. A stalled out blocked-up storm that sat and dumped huge fatties. I was growing up in Genesee Cnty then, which per the records got 8" yet it doesn't stick out in my memory. I do remember my aunt calling from Detroit saying the flakes were half dollar size there in Grosse Pointe.

[jaster220 8344]

LOL, 0z Euro has indeed gone dudsville with Monday's storm. One major concern I mentioned was the lack of truly cold air to "energize" the phase into the monster shown by the Euro for days, and flashed by other models as well. Arctic air made the other November great ones what they were.

GRR did a nice job breaking down this exact problem. Seems like the East Coast is the only place where large storms can generate heavy snow with marginal cold. I saw that with the Dec 1992 bomb that the NWS was warning on the radio that it might hit Michigan. Instead, the phase was late and we got sunny and 40F while eastern PA was getting an absolute puke-fest of massive flakes. Bastardi had 33" in his backyard from that monster.

Quote

--Winter weather possible early next week--

Last bullet but probably first one read by many. Did you say snow?
Well, I said "winter weather" but yes some snow is possible next
week. Right now it looks like there maybe some snow around as
early as Monday morning commute and lasting perhaps into
Wednesday. The best chance of accumulating snow would be along the
lakeshore and perhaps along and east of U.S. route 127. Not
anything like nailed down just yet, but that is a very general
idea. Impacts would most likely be slippery commutes with a few
isolated utility disruptions where the snow is wet and sticky.

How much / bad could this one be? Well, there have been some numerical
model forecasts that indicate a track, character, and associated
upper level jet streams that are similar to those of past historic
MI winter storms. That is a deep low pressure and upper level
system that moves up the Ohio River Valley and then stalls for a
day or so over Lake Erie / Ontario while spinning copious Gulf
and Atlantic moisture back into the arctic air plunging southward
over MI. However, in the present case most of the ensemble
numerical model guidance is leaning towards a near miss. Rather
they indicate the more likely scenario is for some blustery
weather with a few periods of light snow / snow showers. Still the
first snowy commute of the season on I-96, I-69, or I-94 to name
a few is always a challenge.

Looking at this from an ingredients point of view, it looks like
the injection of cold air gets cut off early in the development
of the storm (lack of cold / arctic air over MI). The result is
less than optimal snow growth and precipitation efficiencies
resulting in lower snow potential. It also limits the overall
strength of the storm and the likelihood that it stalls / lingers
nearby.

Secondly, It involves the merging of two initially separate upper
level systems. The first is currently moving through the four
corners region of the U.S. while the second is located off the
west coast of Washington. They will likely merge or phase
together somewhere over the eastern U.S. on Mon-Tue. If they
merge too early or late then MI does not get very much snow.
Finally, they may not merge at all which commonly happens but is
unlikely this time around. The latest indications are leaning
towards the merging / phasing too late to put MI in the bullseye.

One last thought from a climatological perspective. While
meteorologically interesting and even exciting, early winter is
not the best time of year for this kind of storm. Early in the
season, the jet stream tends to be more progressive and while
there are certainly big Fall and early Winter storms, they tend to
move right along. So they tend to hit hard and fast. The event we
are facing needs time to fully develop and those atmospheric
conditions are more likely in mid to late winter and even early
spring when the jet stream tends to evolve into more loopy
blocking patterns.

@Tom I say we either delete my thread, or revamp the title to the more typical early season event it will end up being.

[Hawkeye 4600]

This would be interesting.

[jaster220 8344]

30 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This would be interesting.

Looks like bowling ball energy. Again wasted with lack of cold

[Tom 16887]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This would be interesting.

00z EPS jumping on the idea of a S MW/Lower Lakes winter storm...@Clinton, good call on this one a while back....this won't be the last one that's coming down the road.  I expect to another one between the 11th-13th. The winter pattern is now beginning to set up shop.  It's going to get busy for a lot of across the eastern/southern Sub.

 

[Tom 16887]

Love, Love, Love the way last night's Euro Weeklies have gone and fit the ideas that Winter will spread across our Sub by the middle of the month.  I'm diggin' the pattern that is setting up and the models seemingly are veering away from a blow torch December.  Blocking is setting up shop in all the right places in the modeling.  While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet.

Check out the models thinking and provides us a potential glimpse of an action packed rally towards the Solstice and Holiday stretch....Dreaming of a White Christmas???  

 

 

The LR clues continue to support the idea that Winter is coming and may be coming hard by the start of the 12th/13th....all eyes point towards eastern Siberia and the alignment of the PV will undoubtedly funnel arctic air into the pattern.  Something I did notice from the Euro Weeklies is the displacement of the Polar Vortex into our side of the Pole towards the end of the month and into January.  This may be an important piece to the puzzle as we flip the calendar into 2021.  BTW, hope you all had a relaxing and enjoyable Thanksgiving with family and friends.  Let the holiday season begin!

 

[Clinton 4429]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

00z EPS jumping on the idea of a S MW/Lower Lakes winter storm...@Clinton, good call on this one a while back....this won't be the last one that's coming down the road.  I expect to another one between the 11th-13th. The winter pattern is now beginning to set up shop.  It's going to get busy for a lot of across the eastern/southern Sub.

 

Wow the 0z Euro was pure gold.  Love those maps you posted this morning.   Glad the storm on the 4th is showing up, hope I can get a little white gold on the 4th, not sure it will look quite like this but until then I can dream.  @OKwx2k4you need to watch this one.

 

[bud2380 3520]

I accidentally posted this in November.  But to reiterate the above the Euro is hinting at another storm system.  Not good on this run for Eastern Iowa, but that obviously can change in a  hurry.  Hopefully something materializes. 

 

[FAR_Weather 5220]

GFS gives me 0.1" in fantasy range

[FAR_Weather 5220]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I accidentally posted this in November.  But to reiterate the above the Euro is hinting at another storm system.  Not good on this run for Eastern Iowa, but that obviously can change in a  hurry.  Hopefully something materializes. 

Wow, congrats Clinton and OKwx with the Kuchera totals on that one.

[FAR_Weather 5220]

MJO stays in the 4-5 range throughout the extended. Exactly the opposite of what we want. Hooray!

[tStacsh 70]

Temps keep going the wrong way in the extended.  Need systems to create their own cold air.  Cut off from any real cold, even with cold fronts.  Most storms in the extended will be rainers.  Good pattern but just no real cold air to play with.  2020 man.  

[mlgamer 516]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Wow, congrats Clinton and OKwx with the Kuchera totals on that one.

We've had some pretty epic winters in the 168hr-240hr window around these parts over the years!

[bud2380 3520]

GFS coming around with this storm as well.

 

[Tom 16887]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

MJO stays in the 4-5 range throughout the extended. Exactly the opposite of what we want. Hooray!

Depends on which model you believe....GEFS, yes...but EURO says not...

 

GEFS also trending less amped into the warmer Phases...Euro has been steadfast in the "null" phase...

[jaster220 8344]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Temps keep going the wrong way in the extended.  Need systems to create their own cold air.  Cut off from any real cold, even with cold fronts.  Most storms in the extended will be rainers.  Good pattern but just no real cold air to play with.  2020 man.  

Unfortunately, until I see otherwise, I have to take your side on this. I just looped the Euro thru d10 which includes the time of that huge snowfall map late next week and I didn't see any cold plunge that would indicate that storm's outcome will be any different than the fade-away we are witnessing with the current situation. Get some true arctic air involved, then get back with me. 

[westMJim 1863]

The last 10 years have not been good for a white Christmas at Grand Rapids. In the last 10 years Grand Rapids has only had snow on the ground 40% of the time with 2017 with 3" 2016 with 5" 2013 with 8" and 2010 with 2" All the other years had no snow on the ground for Christmas. At Grand Rapids the current 30 year average is 63% but that looks to go down with the next 30 year average. The average since 1963 is 67% and since 1950 64% and since records started at Grand Rapids 63% of the time Christmas has had snow on the ground so the last 10 years has shown a big drop.

[jaster220 8344]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Love, Love, Love the way last night's Euro Weeklies have gone and fit the ideas that Winter will spread across our Sub by the middle of the month.  I'm diggin' the pattern that is setting up and the models seemingly are veering away from a blow torch December.  Blocking is setting up shop in all the right places in the modeling.  While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet.

Check out the models thinking and provides us a potential glimpse of an action packed rally towards the Solstice and Holiday stretch....Dreaming of a White Christmas???  

 

 

The LR clues continue to support the idea that Winter is coming and may be coming hard by the start of the 12th/13th....all eyes point towards eastern Siberia and the alignment of the PV will undoubtedly funnel arctic air into the pattern.  Something I did notice from the Euro Weeklies is the displacement of the Polar Vortex into our side of the Pole towards the end of the month and into January.  This may be an important piece to the puzzle as we flip the calendar into 2021.  BTW, hope you all had a relaxing and enjoyable Thanksgiving with family and friends.  Let the holiday season begin!

 

"While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet."

 

What I read in that is we get a good track next two weeks, but insufficient cold. Then, when cold makes it's appearance, the action will be where it was in October, west end of the Sub and we'll be on the warm side of their snow systems again. Do I have that right? When do you see cold getting eastward over our way?

[Tom 16887]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Unfortunately, until I see otherwise, I have to take your side on this. I just looped the Euro thru d10 which includes the time of that huge snowfall map late next week and I didn't see any cold plunge that would indicate that storm's outcome will be any different than the fade-away we are witnessing with the current situation. Get some true arctic air involved, then get back with me. 

As I have seen it, any substantial cold will come after the 11th which should brew up a large winter storm.  That's when real Winter will arrive.  For the time being, its going to marginal and a tease for some peeps on here.  It's like nature is getting things geared up after a torch of a November.

[bud2380 3520]

The model trend to this point with the next system is clear.  The storm weakens dramatically shortly after forming. 

 

[Tom 16887]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet."

 

What I read in that is we get a good track next two weeks, but insufficient cold. Then, when cold makes it's appearance, the action will be where it was in October, west end of the Sub and we'll be on the warm side of their snow systems again. Do I have that right? When do you see cold getting eastward over our way?

Negative, the action will be widespread and NOT like October that supported a stout SER and hard cutters.  It'll be the same pattern but different.  There will also be sufficient cold infiltrated into our Sub.  The cold comes down south the Week of the 13th which I've been saying for a little bit now.

[jaster220 8344]

19 minutes ago, Tom said:

Negative, the action will be widespread and NOT like October that supported a stout SER and hard cutters.  It'll be the same pattern but different.  There will also be sufficient cold infiltrated into our Sub.  The cold comes down south the Week of the 13th which I've been saying for a little bit now.

Oh, good. Let's hope it follows through. Gives me a little more time to finish outdoor decorations.

[bud2380 3520]

The Canadian weakens next week's storm then strengthens again a day or so later.  not sure I put much faith in this solution, but something to watch anyways.

 

[Tom 16887]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Oh, good. Let's hope it follows through. Gives me a little more time to finish outdoor decorations.

Same here...I'm actually kinda glad I'll be missing the storm early next week for this reason...LOL, but not for the next one lining up around the 4th/5th!

[snowstorm83 2042]

GFS consistent with zero precip in modeling range. Euro not much better. Unpopular opinion, but I hope winter doesn't briefly pop it's head Christmas week since I'll be out of town then. 

[bud2380 3520]

Euro dropped next weeks storm completely. 

[Niko 7225]

Now , here is something ya don't see everyday...

From NOAA: "Child Abduction Emergency"

 

 

[Niko 7225]

A gorgeous weekend on tap for SEMI, especially the first half. Temps will be in the 40s w increasing clouds for Sunday. Great opportunity to put out Christmas decorations or do a little clean up, or even perhaps rake a few leftover leaves laying around your property.

[Niko 7225]

15 hours ago, Clinton said:

Wow the 0z Euro was pure gold.  Love those maps you posted this morning.   Glad the storm on the 4th is showing up, hope I can get a little white gold on the 4th, not sure it will look quite like this but until then I can dream.  @OKwx2k4you need to watch this one.

 

You are looking golden for this amigo. Hopefully it pans out for ya next week (Dec: 4th-5th). Wait till OKwx sees this.....

[Niko 7225]

21 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like bowling ball energy. Again wasted with lack of cold

Wait to soon to  worry about this storm....plenty of time to track it and monitor it. Let the model mayhem start.

[jaster220 8344]

33 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wait to soon to  worry about this storm....plenty of time to track it and monitor it. Let the model mayhem start.

Perhaps. NWS bullish on cold air coming in behind it and enhancing any synoptic snows, so there's that.

[Clinton 4429]

 0z EPS mean starting to color up, it will be fun to watch it fill in the next couple of days.

 

[Clinton 4429]

0z Euro and CMC both showing accumulating snow in mby later next week.  The GFS is still a nothing burger but some of the ensembles are catching on.  I marked this one as a 1-3 inch event for the KC area due to lack of moisture from the system currently heading towards the Ohio Valley.  Maybe this one can exceed expectations.

 

[Tom 16887]

@OKwx2k4, @Clinton, @clintbeed1993 and KC members I'm sure are paying close attn to the system around the 4th/5th that's showing signs of potential to bring the seasons biggest snowfall of this early season.  00z EPS continues to show good signs for those in the S MW.  It's rather unusual to see so much snow being flashed on the ensembles way down in the deep south of OK/AR.

 

 

00z Euro Control..."outta control"...

 

 

Alright, Alright, Alright...I'm tickled to share with you the data that shows we are heading in the right direction for real Winter to begin showing up across our Sub.  Once we get past the 2nd winter storm of this month, we will begin to focus our eyes on a shift in the Flow aloft that will begin to usher in the seasons coldest air mass of the season.  I've been dialing in on this pattern and I'm beginning to see a very close 30-day harmonic pattern or what may in fact be a 60-day LRC cycle.  There are a lot of systems this season that look very similar to one another which was has been confusing to me of late, however, now as I see where this pattern is heading I think this could be a longer repeating LRC than usual.  I'm really curious to hear what Gary Lezak has to say.  If anyone of you near KC can chime in that would greatly appreciated.  I know @Clintonsaid he's throwing out the idea of a 45 day cycle but not sure if he's still believing that.

Anyhow, I'm going to comment more on my ideas of the LRC later today when I get to my other comp that has all the maps I have saved.  In the meantime, one of the big signals I have been looking for was the modeling to show signs of shifting the Flow aloft from a stout +PNA towards a neutral one and we are now seeing that from the EPS and Canadian in the extended.  

 

 

Why do I believe those two models and not the GEFS???  Look at both the 30mb/50mb animations below and focus in on the region of W NAMER where the warm pool grows around Nov 9th for about a week, then turns colder, but still has a warm pool just offshore the coast of the U.S.  This, to me, signals a northern stream pattern and systems digging into the SW creating a SW Flow aloft by the time we enter the 2nd weekend of December or the Week of the 13th.  Notice also the warm pool that grows near the GOM and along the EC.  This is a sign of a SER trying to grow, but I don't foresee it to be as strong as it was in October.

 

 

The pop in the PNA pattern correlates well with the burst of the warm pool  that starts around Nov 8th/9th in W NAMER.  There is about a 3-week lag period to this LR forecasting tool I've been using.

 

The GEFS model is forecasting an ideal signal at 10mb for Week 2 which portray's a noteworthy storm track right through our Sub.  This should translate to a neutral PNA or even slightly negative pattern out towards Week 2.  The signal for a SSW event in Siberia is NOT going away which are all good signs for later.

 

[Clinton 4429]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4, @Clinton, @clintbeed1993 and KC members I'm sure are paying close attn to the system around the 4th/5th that's showing signs of potential to bring the seasons biggest snowfall of this early season.  00z EPS continues to show good signs for those in the S MW.  It's rather unusual to see so much snow being flashed on the ensembles way down in the deep south of OK/AR.

 

 

00z Euro Control..."outta control"...

 

 

Alright, Alright, Alright...I'm tickled to share with you the data that shows we are heading in the right direction for real Winter to begin showing up across our Sub.  Once we get past the 2nd winter storm of this month, we will begin to focus our eyes on a shift in the Flow aloft that will begin to usher in the seasons coldest air mass of the season.  I've been dialing in on this pattern and I'm beginning to see a very close 30-day harmonic pattern or what may in fact be a 60-day LRC cycle.  There are a lot of systems this season that look very similar to one another which was has been confusing to me of late, however, now as I see where this pattern is heading I think this could be a longer repeating LRC than usual.  I'm really curious to hear what Gary Lezak has to say.  If anyone of you near KC can chime in that would greatly appreciated.  I know @Clintonsaid he's throwing out the idea of a 45 day cycle but not sure if he's still believing that.

Anyhow, I'm going to comment more on my ideas of the LRC later today when I get to my other comp that has all the maps I have saved.  In the meantime, one of the big signals I have been looking for was the modeling to show signs of shifting the Flow aloft from a stout +PNA towards a neutral one and we are now seeing that from the EPS and Canadian in the extended.  

 

 

Why do I believe those two models and not the GEFS???  Look at both the 30mb/50mb animations below and focus in on the region of W NAMER where the warm pool grows around Nov 9th for about a week, then turns colder, but still has a warm pool just offshore the coast of the U.S.  This, to me, signals a northern stream pattern and systems digging into the SW creating a SW Flow aloft by the time we enter the 2nd weekend of December or the Week of the 13th.  Notice also the warm pool that grows near the GOM and along the EC.  This is a sign of a SER trying to grow, but I don't foresee it to be as strong as it was in October.

 

 

The pop in the PNA pattern correlates well with the burst of the warm pool  that starts around Nov 8th/9th in W NAMER.  There is about a 3-week lag period to this LR forecasting tool I've been using.

 

The GEFS model is forecasting an ideal signal at 10mb for Week 2 which portray's a noteworthy storm track right through our Sub.  This should translate to a neutral PNA or even slightly negative pattern out towards Week 2.  The signal for a SSW event in Siberia is NOT going away which are all good signs for later.

 

Very exciting times ahead.  I am beginning to lean towards a longer cycle aswell.  A 51 day cycle is starting to look like a possibility imo.