December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's warm and all over the place.

Looks great!...for Maine

[jaster220]

GRR

-- Warm and Rainy Next Weekend then some Snow--

Of course the pattern is somewhat, if only slowly, progressive.
Thus, that strong Pacific systems Rossby Wave energy will reach
the Great Lakes next weekend. It`s to early to say how this will
all really play out but the latest model runs of both the ECMWF
and GFS have a fairly deep low tracking west of us. I believe,
one way or the other, we will see a fair amount of rain from this
system.

Once that system moves east of here, it does look like some much
colder,with more winter like air, will follow and we may then
start seeing snow here (likely not till early to the middle part
of the following week).

[Stormy]

On 12/2/2020 at 9:35 AM, bud2380 said:

30th anniversary of a great midwest blizzard.  One I remember fondly.  School was cancelled for 2 days.  I was only 10 so I don't know how much snow we got, but based on this map, it was in the neighborhood of a foot. Dubuque reported 15" and I lived about 40 miles NW of there.  

 

A belated comment since I’m really busy with all of the nice sunny weather we’re having during what normally is about our cloudiest time of the year! Checked my notes which stated we got approximately 10” from that system which matches what Iowa City also had.

[bud2380]

00z GFS brings the system out in two waves. Both pretty weak but has some light snow for parts of the Midwest. 

[bud2380]

Euro says. What storm? Big fat nothing. 

[Tom]

Last night's 00z Euro run provided some encouraging signs with regards to showing more high lat blocking, esp up near Greenland.  Is this a trend or just another fluke run.  I did notice it trended cooler across the eastern Sub Forum for Week 2 and a bit snowier near the GL's region.

 

 

 

For some reason, CPC has not updated their Arctic Oscillations page as it has stopped at Nov 25th...this has put a wrench into the LR so hopefully it updates soon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

Nevertheless, using the above animation as guidance, it would suggest a stout Greenland block to develop right around the 11th and beyond.  Will the models begin to trend that way???  I sure hope so.  Let's see what happens over the coming few days.  BTW, the 00z EPS suggesting a variety of solutions for next weekends system.  Many wintry ones across the Sub.  For now, it's a wait and see....is it ever easy???

 

 

[Tom]

If my hunch is right, the pattern is going to get blocked up during the Week of the 13th.  Even though there will be a +EPO pattern allowing N Stream waves enter the PAC NW region, its conceivable that the amount of high lat block can negate the influence of PAC warmth.  It appears the models are backing off on a deeper -PNA signal which is ideally what I'd be looking for to see more systems to track west/east across the Sub instead of cutting NW.  IMO, it'll start getting busier around here once we get past this coming weeks dull and stagnant pattern.

00z EPS Week 2 500mb 5-day mean pattern...looking better...

 

[Clinton]

0z GFS-Para has two pieces of energy and it holds the 2nd and stronger piece back over the Rockies.   Holding the 2nd piece of energy back west allows the first wave to push colder air southeastward ahead of the 2nd low. The 2nd low then phases with a weak wave of vorticity sliding down the front range of the Rockies then ejects and heads east across the southern plains before bending NE through the Ohio Valley.  Very similar to what transpired in late Oct, one big difference is the low doesn't cutoff on this run.  Whether it cuts off or not likely won't be resolved for awhile.  I'm not saying it will play out exactly like this but the similarities to late Oct caught my attention.  Hope everyone has a great day!

 

[Tom]

1st time this season I'm seeing heavy frost everywhere...dipped down to a low of 28F...looks splendid out there in full sunshine, except for the lake clouds in the distance to me east.

[Madtown]

not complaining, but come on pattern change.

[Madtown]

no phase on that there GFS

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has dropped everything the last couple runs, shows a continuation of boredom indefinitely.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is changing dramatically from run to run beyond five days.  There will be an ejecting piece of energy from the southwest, plus waves of energy moving into the northwest.  How fast/slow the waves are, plus how much digging, will determine everything.  Last night everything was totally out of sync and there was no digging in the central/northern Rockies, so there was no storm for us.  This morning, the energy is synced up again with good digging, so the result will be very different.

[Niko]

Partly cloudy skies attm w temps at 35F.

[Niko]

Boston, MA ended up being in the "Funzone" as WSW has been posted for them.......

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1039 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020

MAZ007-013>015-RIZ001-052130-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.201205T1800Z-201206T1200Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood,
Cambridge, Boston, Foster, and Smithfield
1039 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 9
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Suffolk MA, Southeast Middlesex MA,
  Western Norfolk MA and Eastern Essex MA Counties. In Rhode
  Island, Northwest Providence RI County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage.

• This
  Afternoon

  

  Rain/Snow and
  Breezy

  High: 43 °F

• Tonight
   

  

  Blustery.
  Heavy Snow
  then Snow
  Likely

  Low: 30 °F

•  

[Niko]

Warm up next week takes mby into the 40s by midweek, but that is a s high as it gets, w tons of sunshine. Great opportunity to do last min stuff outside. Still have some patchy snows around my property. In the meantime, 30s dominate my region for highs and lows in the 20s until middle part of next week.

[GDR]

Not much showing on the euro surprise surprise!

[CentralNebWeather]

Been watching football. As quiet as the board looks, winter weather must not look good in today’s models. 57 degrees with potential upper 60’s or possibly 70 next week. The broken record continues. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Boston, MA ended up being in the "Funzone" as WSW has been posted for them.......

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1039 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020

MAZ007-013>015-RIZ001-052130-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0004.201205T1800Z-201206T1200Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood,
Cambridge, Boston, Foster, and Smithfield
1039 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 9
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Suffolk MA, Southeast Middlesex MA,
  Western Norfolk MA and Eastern Essex MA Counties. In Rhode
  Island, Northwest Providence RI County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage.

• This
  Afternoon

  

  Rain/Snow and
  Breezy

  High: 43 °F

• Tonight
   

  

  Blustery.
  Heavy Snow
  then Snow
  Likely

  Low: 30 °F

•  

Question for our LRC gurus. Would this be their October snowstorm cycling thru? Do the dates align with the expected cycle?

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Question for our LRC gurus. Would this be their October snowstorm cycling thru? Do the dates align with the expected cycle?

Yes they actually had two snows in October and this is related to the one they experienced on October 20th

[Niko]

23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes they actually had two snows in October and this is related to the one they experienced on October 20th

Do you happen to know the actual dates. That would be awesome. Thanks bud!

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Do you happen to know the actual dates. That would be awesome. Thanks bud!

October 20th and October 31st I believe

[Madtown]

Hurricane in Canada on the 20th!!!

[Clinton]

0z ICON is coming around @mlgamer  I think we will have some wintery weather next weekend.  Lets see if this starts a trend.

[Hawkeye]

GFS is a wet one for most of us.

[Niko]

Its a gorgeous evening out there. Temp is at 25F under crystal clear skies. Lows tanite dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS is a wet one for most of us.

I would take wet or white as this point of our drought. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I would take wet or white as this point of our drought. 

The GFS kicks it out as 1 storm, it could happen that way but I doubt it.  You got some snow back in Oct from a piece that broke off from the main low right?

[bud2380]

Canadian comes out in one piece as well. Slightly further south than the GFS but the low runs through Iowa as seems to be tradition. 

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS kicks it out as 1 storm, it could happen that way but I doubt it.  You got some snow back in Oct from a piece that broke off from the main low right?

Yes, we got several inches in my county, and places north and west got more. That would be ideal if it comes out in one piece. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Its a gorgeous evening out there. Temp is at 25F under crystal clear skies. Lows tanite dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s.

 

21F here already. Coldest evening yet after work.

[Niko]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

21F here already. Coldest evening yet after work.

Can you imagine how much colder it would have been had there been snowcover.

[jaster220]

There have been several of these kinds of graphics here in the past few years. Really a bad stretch..

 

[jaster220]

GRR's pro-winter Met WDM has a keen eye on next weekend's pattern evolution:

Quote

-- Storm over the weekend looks more likely --

Finally that second EAJ pushes toward the west coast of the United
States (Friday). By then we have a fairly deep upper trough over
western Plains. A jet segement coming around the base of that
trough interacts with the right rear quad of the departing polar
jet over eastern Canada. That coupled jet then in turn supports a
quickly developing surface low as it pulls in abundant Gulf
Moisture.

As I have been writing about most of this week, this should be a
fairly wet system for Southwest Michigan. The current timing for
the rain is for it to being Saturday or maybe later Friday. It
will likely be fairly warm here into Saturday since this system
tracks west of this area as it comes through on Saturday. The
colder air will come into Michigan on Sunday as the system moves
out of the area.

By late in the weekend or early in the following week we finally
get the development of blocking upper ridge near Greenland. That
in turn allows the arctic air to follow the system as it leaves
the Great Lakes. If this plays out this way will would more than
likely have our first significant lake effect snow event of the
season since we would have deep cyclonic flow with 850 temps
falling to near -15c. It would likely bring us our first day with
highs below freezing over most of Lower Michigan. Of course this
is over a week out in time so a lot could change but we have been
tracking this all of this week and that part of this story has not
changed much. So, bottom line we may see some real wintry weather
here by the early to middle part of next week. About 1/2 the
ECMWF ensembles from the 12z run give this area meaningful snow
by the 15th.

 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

There have been several of these kinds of graphics here in the past few years. Really a bad stretch..

 

Sheesh, that's pretty sad for all the winter sports up north when businesses count on mother nature to lay down the snow.  I took a peak at one of the ski resorts I used to go to up in the U.P. and it looks like they are blowing snow in a frenzy.

https://www.bigsnow.com/live-cams

They need some snow up there badly...as do much of us snow geese in this Sub!  00z Euro flashing some sort of secondary wave that digs deep into the S Plains (which is one of this year's LRC exhibits) and tracks up towards the GL's.

 

Comparing yesterday's 12z EPS to tonight's 00z EPS you can see the shift SE of the models "thinking" of next weekends storm system.  It appears this could very well be a 2-wave system the way things stand now.  Similar to what we saw in the 1st cycle.

Yesterday's 12z EPS...

 

Last nights 00z EPS...

 

 

[bud2380]

No run to run consistency from the Euro. It’s probably gonna be a few days to get an idea of what is going to happen 

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids is on track to have a top ten in the lasted first day where the maximum stays at or below 32. With highs forecasted to stay above 32 for the rest of this week and if that indeed happens Grand Rapids will be it the top ten. Here is the current top ten latest. Note all are in the month of December.

1.       December 30, 1923

2.       December 24, 2001

3.       December 23, 2012

4.       December 21, 1939

5.       December 20, 1998

6.       December 17, 1999

7.       December 15, 1953

8.       December 13, 2004

9.       December 12, 2003

10.   December 11, 1993

At a later date I will look and see how the above winters ended up in temperature and total snow fall.

[Tom]

Nice way to start off the day with a rather nice lake effect snow shower!  Surprisingly, it's coming down pretty good to lighten up the mood.

 

Edit: Getting another 2nd more intense burst of LES and this one has some real fatty flakes flying...nice Sunday morning...feels like Winter

 

 

[Tom]

You can see nice convergence on the western shores of LM right now...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-88.06,42.59,5223/loc=-87.877,42.263

[St Paul Storm]

Today will mark the 3rd day in a row that I’ll be shooting hoops on the driveway...in December. Warm, dry and boring has its benefits. Looks like we’ll be pushing low to mid 50s by mid week.