December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

UKIE is north from last night.

 

[bud2380]

UKIE strong for much of Iowa.  Comes a little too far north for my house though.

 

[bud2380]

It seems a lot of times at this range, the UK and Euro end up similar to each other.  I'm hoping the Euro is in the ballpark of what the UKIE shows.  Just a little further south would be ideal for me.  

[jcwxguy]

Lock in the ukie

[bud2380]

The UKIE has about 36 hours of snowfall in Iowa.  

[james1976]

About what time does the Ukie have precip entering central Iowa?

[bud2380]

Around 6pm Friday is when the UK shows things amping up in Iowa.

 

[Hawkeye]

What the hell, UK?  All models are going southeast and weaker, then the UK does this?

[bud2380]

I'm still pleased with what the UK shows even though it teases me with 0.7" of snow while showing almost 10" just 30-40 miles away.  Plenty of time for that to wobble.  Here is a closeup. 

 

[james1976]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I'm still pleased with what the UK shows even though it teases me with 0.7" of snow while showing almost 10" just 30-40 miles away.  Plenty of time for that to wobble.  Here is a closeup. 

 

And thats at 10:1 lol. Whats it smoking?

[bud2380]

King Euro is running.  

[GDR]

Hail to the king!

[gabel23]

25 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

King Euro is running.  

KC to Chicago special. 

[Money]

Chicago with 8+ this run again 

[bud2380]

Euro with a slight dip south this run. Just doesn’t have a huge area of precipitation in the cold sector. The line that gets all the snow is fairly narrow. 

[snowstorm83]

4 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

KC to Chicago special. 

Southern tier of NE and IA do well, Lincoln is on the wrong side of the gradient. GEFS mean is much more NW of the OP, but kind of weak totals until Madison, WI. 

[Clinton]

12z Euro a little further north than I would like but continuing a good trend.

[james1976]

Tom bullseye 

[Madtown]

Still think it comes more north....2m temps in the 34-36 range up to Wi Il border for most of this. No cold air pushing south from up this way. 30's Fri and Sat with temps falling ton25 on Sunday.

[BMT]

very interesting.  

[Niko]

This is where we stand today and expect more changes. By Thursday or Friday at the latest is when things should begin to look more clearer and all sampled up by models.

Accuweather quotes: Unless there is a drastic northwestward shift in the storm, Minneapolis should avoid a big snowfall and may avoid snow altogether this time. People in cities such as Omaha, Nebraska; Des Moines, Iowa; Peoria, Illinois; Lansing, Michigan; Madison, Wisconsin; and even Kansas City, Missouri; should closely monitor the forecast as subtle shifts in the storm track could mean the difference between snow showers and enough snow to shovel and plow.

 

[Niko]

Attm, its mostly cloudy w temps holding steady into the 30s.

[bud2380]

I’m a little disappointed in the Euro. I hope the EPS is a little further NW and more importantly just more expansive with the snow shield on the NW side of the system. 

[Stacsh]

PERFECT track for the low here.  What could go wrong?  

[dubuque473]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

I'm still pleased with what the UK shows even though it teases me with 0.7" of snow while showing almost 10" just 30-40 miles away.  Plenty of time for that to wobble.  Here is a closeup. 

 

I could handle that....

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Tom bullseye 

Not always a good thing being in the bullseye 4-5 days out.  Fun to look at and see these weenie runs come in off the Euro.  I just got back inside from finishing my final clean up and mowed the grass nice and short.  Its friggin' cold with the breeze that's been picking up throughout the morning.  Just checked and it's only 33F right now.  I've been used to feeling 70's/80's and warm sun instead of the cloudy and cold temps we've been having the past few days.  I'm just starting to acclimate to this colder climate.

 

Here's another look at the Euro...snow/mix line literally cuts right over Chicago and points south...

[bud2380]

EPS Mean is significantly further NW than the Euro.

 

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

EPS Mean is significantly further NW than the Euro.

A solid swath of 6" on the ensemble mean is pretty good.  That suggests there are a lot of members just nw of the op.

[Tom]

12z EPS...slight nudge SE the farther east...

[Tony]

Not the coldest airmass in place so maybe a couple inches down towards the the city of Chicago and the farther north and west you go will see the higher amounts...of course this can change but just my thinking at this point.

[bud2380]

I made a new thread for the storm.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Bring it North by about 400 moar miles!!

[bud2380]

I can't say I recall seeing a 500mb map look like this before.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

59.5 for the high today. First 8 days of the month has averaged 49.1 degrees for the high here. 10 degrees above normal

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, whatitdo said:

- Potential Storm over this weekend with rain/snow mix

The warmer temperatures through the latter half of the week will
give way to a system that the latest model runs continually to
trend cooler. Latest EC/GEFS continues to trend each successive
run colder. However the main precipitation type for Saturday into
Sunday remains rain but wet snow is possible at times. There are
still some confidence issues with timing but currently it should
be moving through midday Saturday through daytime Sunday. Looking
at the anomalies, the best moisture will be over the region 18Z
Saturday to 00Z Sunday, though there is some variance. So will
have to keep an eye for adjustments as this system gets closer.

Seems pretty reasonable especially this far out tbh

It's reasonable, but other Mets who are known names with tenure and not actually known to favor winter actually sounded more convinced this would/could be an impactful storm even if a RN->SN scenario. This person stepped it backward, even tho mentioning each run looking colder. Just the usual inconsistencies. When a December acts like a winter month, maps like these from 2016 is what we're used to seeing:

 

[Niko]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It's reasonable, but other Mets who are known names with tenure and not actually known to favor winter actually sounded more convinced this would/could be an impactful storm even if a RN->SN scenario. This person stepped it backward, even tho mentioning each run looking colder. Just the usual inconsistencies. When a December acts like a winter month, maps like these from 2016 is what we're used to seeing:

 

For a sec there, I thought that was your extended forecast ...wow, that is one snowy look!

[Niko]

Attm, skies are clear w temps in the 30s. Not bad for this time of the year.

[Clinton]

@jaster220 @Niko This is the Low that I thought would target my area.  Most models like the EC below are digging down through central Texas and along the Gulf.  This run of the Euro Control has it moving up out of south central Texas toward Mich.  Just something to keep an eye on.  Maybe it will develop further west we shall see.

[Minny_Weather]

Back to zero flakes for me on extended GFS.

[jaster220]

59 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Back to zero flakes for me on extended GFS.

Euro tho??