BLI snowman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Why the cap? Doesn't offshore flow usually help overcome that? Capping inversion http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/405/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 102 at Kelso (!!). 93 at PDX. Slackers.12-1-07. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 It would be nice if every GFS solution wasn't wildly different than the one before.Why? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Capping inversion http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/405/ For some reason I was under the impression that onshore flow (in our region) was more troublesome for thunderstorm development that offshore. But in this case I now understand how offshore flow is likely an inhibitor, downsloping being the main issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Why? Because I want to know what's going to happen next!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Because I want to know what's going to happen next!!! The second half of August will be cooler than the first. There ya go. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 The second half of August will be cooler than the first. There ya go. Wouldn't take much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Wouldn't take much.Maybe it'll be a lot! (Probably not) Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Maybe it'll be a lot! (Probably not) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Looks like 99 so far at PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 12-1-07. 99. Oh noz! Wrongness all around! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 99. Oh noz! Wrongness all around! They could pop to 102... next July. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Gonna be a warm night. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 For some reason I was under the impression that onshore flow (in our region) was more troublesome for thunderstorm development that offshore. But in this case I now understand how offshore flow is likely an inhibitor, downsloping being the main issue. To my understanding, on a day like today the capping inversion is mostly just present during the peak daytime heating hours, when there's a slightly warmer elevated layer that reduces the lapse rates and produces what's known as CINH (convective inhibition). On really hot days like today with the extreme warmth aloft, there's a larger inversion. That naturally will reduce at a point in the evening hours as the boundary layer begins to decouple, before things stabilize again late in the night. Offshore flow is still optimal for our region's thunderstorm outbreaks, btw. SSE flow aloft is always ideal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 They could pop to 102... next July. Nah, July is like January. Ain't what it used to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Gonna be a warm night.Will we finally break the long-standing record of 69 set on 8/11/14? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Nah, July is like January. Ain't what it used to be.Give me our 4th coldest January in history this year and I won't complain too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 To my understanding, on a day like today the capping inversion is mostly just present during the peak daytime heating hours, when there's a slightly warmer elevated layer that reduces the lapse rates and produces what's known as CINH (convective inhibition). On really hot days like today with the extreme warmth aloft, there's a larger inversion. That naturally will reduce at a point in the evening hours as the boundary layer begins to decouple, before things stabilize again late in the night. Offshore flow is still optimal for our region's thunderstorm outbreaks, btw. SSE flow aloft is always ideal. That's kind of misleading, though. Typically people associate offshore flow with offshore surface gradients. It's incredibly rare to unheard of for the westside to see storms when an actual inverted thermal trough is positioned on the westside/coast. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Will we finally break the long-standing record of 69 set on 8/11/14? No. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 That's kind of misleading, though. Typically people associate offshore flow with offshore surface gradients. It's incredibly rare to unheard of for the westside to see storms when an actual inverted thermal trough is positioned on the westside/coast. Well there are varying degrees of what quantifies as "offshore flow", but the pressure gradients aloft are most telling. The 500mb details are obviously more important than anything else. The ideal convective setup is pretty consistent around here and often follows a period of strong offshore surface gradients, but you're right that they're rarely simultaneous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 It's 95 degrees and raining. Weird. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 To my understanding, on a day like today the capping inversion is mostly just present during the peak daytime heating hours, when there's a slightly warmer elevated layer that reduces the lapse rates and produces what's known as CINH (convective inhibition). On really hot days like today with the extreme warmth aloft, there's a larger inversion. That naturally will reduce at a point in the evening hours as the boundary layer begins to decouple, before things stabilize again late in the night. Offshore flow is still optimal for our region's thunderstorm outbreaks, btw. SSE flow aloft is always ideal.Thanks, that makes sense. Seems like SSE flow aloft with offshore gradients switching to onshore at the surface is our best combination for convection. The switch to onshore is generally a trigger but convective events are often directly preceded by offshore flow at the surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 93 and it's raining...just about as insane as I've seen here lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Wind has switched to light westerly out here. Hit 100 earlier, down to 94 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 It would be awesome if some of that action over northern Deschutes and south-central Jefferson County would move up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Well there are varying degrees of what quantifies as "offshore flow", but the pressure gradients aloft are most telling. The 500mb details are obviously more important than anything else. The ideal convective setup is pretty consistent around here and often follows a period of strong offshore surface gradients, but you're right that they're rarely simultaneous. Absolutely. Diffluent, SE'erly 500mb flow is optimal. It just happens that thermal troughs, not coincidentally, don't survive on the westside during that kind of pattern. You need a shitload of subsidence or a relatively cool continental air mass to make it happen and neither situation is good for convection. This is why the situation back in July didn't pan out as a heat/storms/heat scenario. It just doesn't happen. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Rapid develp. of a cell just N of Mt Rainier right now. Meso data is looking good Li's esp. around the Willamette valley are -7C right now and CAPE in that same area is over 2000J/Kg BK shear is on the order of 40 kts over SW Wa and extreme NW Ore. I would expect further develp. as the night progresses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Hearing distant thunder now. Skies very dark. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Hearing distant thunder now. Skies very dark.See my post above Tim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Lots of lightning here now. Very warm still. Reminds me of the Midwest. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Lots of lightning here now. Very warm still. Reminds me of the Midwest.CC, CG? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 0z is quite impressive for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Crazy storm passing to my south. Tons of lightning and now a hot wind blowing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Never felt such a hot wind with a thunderstorm here. Temp must have jumped 10 degrees or more. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Never felt such a hot wind with a thunderstorm here. Temp must have jumped 10 degrees or more. Heat burst? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Heat burst? Maybe. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Nice lightning at the Mariners game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Slim pickins down here tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Just a few bolts off to the east so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Slim pickins down here tonight. WRF really took the balls out of anything over the next 24 hours, although tomorrow evening looks extremely wet. Hard to know if that should be taken seriously though... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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