Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[Jesse]

If you want snow, buy an air conditioner and man up.

 

Eh, it's not so much my personal comfort. It's the fact that our Summers are becoming quite abnormal, especially in the humidity department. Low humidity is what (usually) makes our summer so wonderful compared to locations east of the Rockies.

 

I was going to take an average of lows in the 60s at PDX per decade and see how the numbers shook out then I realized it's a lot of work and that probably only I will care about the results.

 

If I were to wager a guess I would say that the 2010s are on pace for the most so far, by a long shot.

[Deweydog]

Eh, it's not so much my personal comfort. It's the fact that our Summers are becoming quite abnormal, especially in the humidity department. Low humidity is what (usually) makes our summer so wonderful compared to locations east of the Rockies.

 

I was going to take an average of lows in the 60s at PDX per decade and see how the numbers shook out then I realized it's a lot of work and that probably only I will care about the results.

 

If I were to wager a guess I would say that the 2010s are on pace for the most so far, by a long shot.

Aside from the pattern for a few weeks late last summer, I don't think it's been that unusual. Since 2009 our summers have been pretty reasonable. I doubt the numbers would show anything to the contrary.

[Jesse]

Kind of a neat article on the very "contrasty" July across the lower 48.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/record-cool-july-2014-midwest-south-20140801

[Jesse]

Skies have gotten pretty smoky again. We're planning to do a hike to watch the moonrise later this evening, so at very least it should make for a cool looking moon.

 

84 currently with east winds blowing at a moderate speed for the first time since the early July event.

[Jesse]

Aside from the pattern for a few weeks late last summer, I don't think it's been that unusual. Since 2009 our summers have been pretty reasonable. I doubt the numbers would show anything to the contrary.

 

We've had a pretty impressive run of mild lows and unusually muggy patterns, especially in the late-summer/early-mid Fall, since about 2010.

[Deweydog]

We've had a pretty impressive run of mild lows in the late/summer early-mid Fall since about 2010.

Early fall nights have definitely been mild. Just the ups and downs of things and this September will probably be similar or different.

[Jesse]

Tomorrow is looking like it could be pretty epic for thunderstorm activity, especially in the evening. Latest NWS Portland discussion likened this outbreak to the June 4, 2009 event, which was one of the best I've ever seen around here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

June 4, 2009 was probably the closest I've ever seen to an "Oklahoma" thunderstorm here. I will say the July 31/Aug 1 outbreak was probably the longest stretch of continuous thunder I've had here too...I've had like 7-8 t-storm days so far this year, which is more than the last two years combined.

[Jesse]

June 4, 2009 was probably the closest I've ever seen to an "Oklahoma" thunderstorm here. I will say the July 31/Aug 1 outbreak was probably the longest stretch of continuous thunder I've had here too...I've had like 7-8 t-storm days so far this year, which is more than the last two years combined.

 

This warm season and last were both great for convection regionally. Although 2014 may even pull ahead of 2013 in the next few days.

[brody]

Nice vort max Tuesday and CAPE values continue to increase along with LI's, the biggest contributing factor I am seeing is BK shear in excess of 60kts overnight Monday into Tuesday.

 

SREF Cape model looks decent http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_hicape_500__

 

Interesting to note that best parameters and CAPE is after sunset both Monday/Tuesday

 

00Z sounding shows some suspect convection into Wednesday as well, not sure I believe that though.

[BLI snowman]

Tomorrow is looking like it could be pretty epic for thunderstorm activity, especially in the evening. Latest NWS Portland discussion likened this outbreak to the June 4, 2009 event, which was one of the best I've ever seen around here.

 

Tomorrow doesn't look to be the main show, that probably will be Tuesday morning when the marine push is coming in.

[Jesse]

Tomorrow doesn't look to be the main show, that probably will be Tuesday morning when the marine push is coming in.

 

I guess I should have said starting late tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

We've had a pretty impressive run of mild lows and unusually muggy patterns, especially in the late-summer/early-mid Fall, since about 2010.

 

2011 and 2012 certainly didn't, and 2010 was a very cool summer capped off with a wet/muggy September. The last two summers have been the only recent ones that have had unusually mild nights, probably aided by the super mild Pacific (queue dewey/tim debate about SST impacts).

[Jesse]

2011 and 2012 certainly didn't, and 2010 was a very cool summer capped off with a wet/muggy September. The last two summers have been the only recent ones that have had unusually mild nights, probably aided by the super mild Pacific (queue dewey/tim debate about SST impacts).

 

2011 had an insanely muggy stretch in late August and then that super unseasonably muggy heatwave in early to mid September. All in all 13 lows above 60 in the August 15th-September 15th period.

 

Also 5th warmest average MIN on record for both September and October that year.

 

2011 also had the warmest average MIN on record at PDX for the 9-1 to 10-15 period (54.6 degrees) and was our 4th warmest such period in history overall.

 

2012 had the second warmest average MIN for any autumn in PDX history (44.8) beating out only 1995's 45. It was our 5th warmest fall on record overall.

 

So yeah.

 

Then of course you had last year's insanity, absolutely shattering warmest average MINs for August and September at PDX.

 

So far August 2014 has an average MIN of 60.9 at PDX, tying last year's record breaking number, and I don't see a great pattern for cool nights coming any time soon...

[BLI snowman]

2011 had an insanely muggy stretch in late August and then that super unseasonably muggy heatwave in early to mid September. All in all 13 lows above 60 in the August 15th-September 15th period.

 

Also 5th warmest average MIN on record for both September and October that year.

 

2011 also had the warmest average MIN on record at PDX for the 9-1 to 10-15 period (54.6 degrees) and was our 4th warmest such period in history overall.

 

2012 had the second warmest average MIN for any autumn in PDX history (44.8) beating out only 1995's 45. It was our 5th warmest fall on record overall.

 

So yeah.

 

Then of course you had last year's insanity, absolutely shattering warmest average MINs for August and September at PDX.

 

So far August 2014 has an average MIN of 60.9 at PDX, tying last year's record breaking number, and I don't see a great pattern for cool nights coming any time soon...

 

You're talking about fall, not summer, and for the region as a whole (PDX's heat island notwithstanding) at no point did either 2011 nor 2012 have any appreciable propensity for humidity or mild nights. July and August 2011 were downright chilly, and summer 2012 was dry as a bone after June.

 

A week or two of muggy weather happens literally every year, by the way. Even 1955. 

[Phil]

I'm really not seeing a long lasting troughy pattern setting in. 12z ensembles give us another heat wave week two.

 

As it stands currently this is running as the warmest August in history at PDX. That is before the heat wave the next couple days.

It often takes time for modeling to capture tropical forcings in the longer term. I suspect late-August through early or mid September will feature western troughing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This warm season and last were both great for convection regionally. Although 2014 may even pull ahead of 2013 in the next few days.

 

September 2013 was pretty convective here that is true.

[Jesse]

It often takes time for modeling to capture tropical forcings in the longer term. I suspect late-August through early or mid September will feature western troughing

Nice. A week or two of troughing should really make up for the months of western ridging we've experienced.

 

I'm sure we'll go right back to ridging after that, right?

[Jesse]

You're talking about fall, not summer, and for the region as a whole (PDX's heat island notwithstanding) at no point did either 2011 nor 2012 have any appreciable propensity for humidity or mild nights. July and August 2011 were downright chilly, and summer 2012 was dry as a bone after June.

 

A week or two of muggy weather happens literally every year, by the way. Even 1955.

August is a summer month and many here argue that September is too.

 

The stats don't lie. It is what it is.

[BLI snowman]

August is a summer month and many here argue that September is too.

 

The stats don't lie. It is what it is.

 

August 2010, or August 2011, or August 2012 were unusually humid/muggy months? The stats say otherwise.

 

At PDX, the number of days with a dewpoint of 60 or higher in each

 

August 2010: 6

August 2011: 6

August 2012: 10

 

Compare that to August 2013, which had 17 days with a dewpoint of 60 or higher, or August 2004 which had 23 days with a dewpoint of 60+, or August 1997 which had 26 days with a 60+ dewpoint.

 

August 2014: 4 so far

[Jesse]

August 2010, or August 2011, or August 2012 were unusually humid/muggy months? The stats say otherwise.

 

At PDX, the number of days with a dewpoint of 60 or higher in each

 

August 2010: 6

August 2011: 6

August 2012: 10

 

Compare that to August 2013, which had 17 days with a dewpoint of 60 or higher, or August 2004 which had 23 days with a dewpoint of 60+, or August 1997 which had 26 days with a 60+ dewpoint.

 

August 2014: 4 so far

Our late-summers/early falls have warmed. That much is obvious.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our late-summers/early falls have warmed. That much is obvious.

 

There were some really warm/hot Septembers in the early 20th century.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Our late-summers/early falls have warmed. That much is obvious.

I was curious, since I had thought that our Falls had warmed, but our Springs had cooled.  I plotted the August-October for the PNW, and found this.  It is from 1966 through now (I was born in 1966).  Data from the NCDC

 

 

 

Sorry it is so small, I converted it to JPG and it was still small.  You can click onto it to see it in full.

[Deweydog]

2011 and 2012 certainly didn't, and 2010 was a very cool summer capped off with a wet/muggy September. The last two summers have been the only recent ones that have had unusually mild nights, probably aided by the super mild Pacific (queue dewey/tim debate about SST impacts).

Gulf of Mexico?

[BLI snowman]

Our late-summers/early falls have warmed. That much is obvious.

 

I would argue that it certainly doesn't compare with the 1987-1997 period yet. Lots of late August to October heat records in that time. 

[BLI snowman]

Gulf of Mexico?

 

Portland is becoming St. Louis. Stevenson a bit like Paducah, KY.  

[Deweydog]

Portland is becoming St. Louis. Stevenson a bit like Paducah, KY.

60 degree dewpoints blowing in from the coast (apparently) are truly oppressive.

[BLI snowman]

60 degree dewpoints blowing in from the coast (apparently) are truly oppressive.

 

I don't think Jesse has been east of Montana, to be fair.

 

In other news, convection is blowing up nicely in OR as scheduled. Tuesday or Wednesday looks really wet across much of western WA. 

[Deweydog]

I don't think Jesse has been east of Montana, to be fair.

 

In other news, convection is blowing up nicely in OR as scheduled. Tuesday or Wednesday looks really wet across much of western WA.

It's all blowin' in off our coastal bathwaters.

[Phil]

Weird debate to me as I can barely tell the difference between a dewpoint of 50 and a dewpoint of 60. I start feeling it a bit at 65, I'd still consider that to be comfortable...definitely not oppressive

[Deweydog]

Gonna be an interesting few days.

[BLI snowman]

It's all blowin' in off our coastal bathwaters.

 

1997 was impressive. Record El Nino. Record humidity.

[Deweydog]

1997 was impressive. Record El Nino. Record humidity.

Weather pattern, not water pattern.

[BLI snowman]

Weird debate to me as I can barely tell the difference between a dewpoint of 50 and a dewpoint of 60. I start feeling it a bit at 65, I'd still consider that to be comfortable...definitely not oppressive

 

A TD of 60 is generally not oppressive, but in the PNW it's a good cutoff point to delineate relatively humid weather versus non humid weather. 65 degree dewpoints are rare and reserved for 3-4 days per year at most.

[BLI snowman]

Weather pattern, not water pattern.

 

Or both.

 

 

See:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacific_hurricane_season

[Deweydog]

Or both.

 

 

See:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacific_hurricane_season

I believe Sharknado was based loosely on one of the several storms which impacted Southern California that year.

[BLI snowman]

I believe Sharknado was based loosely on one of the several storms which impacted Southern California that year.

 

The remnants of Ignacio and Guillermo actually both impacted our weather in late August that year. 

[Deweydog]

The remnants of Ignacio and Guillermo actually both impacted our weather in late August that year.

Indeed.

[Tyler Mode]

Low of 65 here in BG. 

 

PDX dipped to right around 70 it looks like.

 

Now the skies are clearing, perfect timing for maximum heating.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was Salem's 20th at 90+