TT-SEA Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Here's some useless knowledge as you head out for evening services... Since July 1, 2014, an impressively warm period for the region, PDX has had only 19 hourly observations of 90 degrees or better (8 of which came on 7-1). I would venture a guess this is significantly below average. For comparison, 2009 had 82 hours of 90+ hourly readings and even the nipple-hardening summer of 2010 featured 21 during said period. Interesting... What does it all mean???? Means that its been a spectacular summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Means that its been a spectacular summer.What a weird year! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Man the GFS just keeps spitting out one solidly hot run after another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 .... one solidly hot run after another. Per my estimation, you should see some more assertively movement of colder air east from the 7th through the 10th, lending to some amount of let up. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Remember those plunging SSTs and the anomalously strong high pressure of the coast in June? I think I mentioned at the time that it would likely be temporary based on history. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.4.2014.gif Also notice pockets of colder than normal SSTs in the Nino regions. Neutral is much better overall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Salem looks poised to hit 90+ for the 8th straight day today. See no reason why they won't touch 90 tomorrow either. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Salem looks poised to hit 90+ for the 8th straight day today. See no reason why they won't touch 90 tomorrow either.Can't wait until we finally see a hot pattern! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Salem 89 as of 2pm.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 -The main "wrap-around" moisture, north of low-center of the sub-tropical energy generated south and moving more northward, has made it to overhead of where I am today. — No precip., just fairly thick cover. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml 140804 22z wc 4km-ir @ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 -The main "wrap-around" moisture, north of low-center of the sub-tropical energy generated south and moving more northward, has made it to overhead of where I am today. — [N]o precip., just fairly thick cover. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml Produced some pretty active weather down in Southern California this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 Nobody reads the mtn west forum so I just wanted to share that I had a peak rain rate of 12.52"/hr with a gust to 43 mph today. Yeah that was the most absurd thing I've ever seen weatherwise. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 -.. So are you talking about, in Salt Lake City more specifically then Derrick. ?— Time of day, otherwise. (?) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 Nobody reads the mtn west forum so I just wanted to share that I had a peak rain rate of 12.52"/hr with a gust to 43 mph today. Yeah that was the most absurd thing I've ever seen weatherwise.You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 -http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?p=30772 @ -... A fairly isolated incidence and event, evidently. Not all that pronounced general appearance wise, at the broader scope view. The main 6-min. doppler ("NEXRAD") images—either whether for whatever more specific station / "Doppler" site, or where considering a broader "Mosiac" more National, .. can be dialed in at this site-page accessible following. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/ Broader main "totals", here. http://water.weather.gov/precip/ Main station "Storm Total" graphic, ending just before 8:00z /1:47 MDT for the 5th, screen-shot. MTX-Storm Total time-ending 140805 0747z http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mtx - Main station, more current and updating. "METARs" for KSLC (in this case. Not MTX.), .. "translated" and for the "past 24 hours", … .. show "+TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm[s)" .. at 01:50 and 01:53z, tapering by 2:00z, ... http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/?station_ids=KSLC&std_trans=translated&chk_metars=on&hoursStr=past+24+hours&submitmet=Submit / http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/ — So earlier in the evening, just before 8:00 pm local. @ $ .. Here, it is. - http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KMTX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140805&endTime=2&duration=0 .. from the "Nexrad" images / "NCAR" site above, dialed-in to 02:00z for the 5th. And screenshot, otherwise. - Nexrad for KMTX 140805 0158z Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 Finally a somewhat cooler morning low. 51.5 here in BG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 SLE running -8 compared to this time yesterday. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 EURO and GFS are really at odds in the mid-long range at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 EURO and GFS are really at odds in the mid-long range at the moment. Lean to the Euro. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 Lean to the Euro. That's been my gut feeling. What would be expected further down the road if the troughier EURO pattern takes hold? My guess is that if we go into a troughy pattern in the next week or so it may solidify a ridgier September. Seems hard to get sustained troughing that starts in mid-August and carries over into the Fall without first experiencing a period of relatively higher heights around wavelength change time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 That's been my gut feeling. What would be expected further down the road if the troughier EURO pattern takes hold? My guess is that if we go into a troughy pattern in the next week or so it may solidify a ridgier September. Seems hard to get sustained troughing that starts in mid-August and carries over into the Fall without first experiencing a period of relatively higher heights around wavelength change time. It's just more progressive and less meridional. Progressive is more likely this time of year, and the GFS has already trended that way for this weekend/early next week. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 It's just more progressive and less meridional. Progressive is more likely this time of year, and the GFS has already trended that way for this weekend/early next week. I see. Makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 The haze clearing out today was a nice touch. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 Nice weather today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 The haze clearing out today was a nice touch. We were up at Rainier yesterday and the cutoff was pretty distinct. Completely clear at Paradise Lodge but maybe just 20 miles to the south the air was very smoky. Could barely even see Adams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 5, 2014 Report Share Posted August 5, 2014 We were up at Rainier yesterday and the cutoff was pretty distinct. Completely clear at Paradise Lodge but maybe just 20 miles to the south the air was very smoky. Could barely even see Adams. It was pretty bad the last three days, even worse down around Eugene where it capped temperatures a good 5-6 degrees. I still remember Summer 2001 over in Pateros where the smoke set in for a few days in August. In Omak, highs were running 100-105 while we in the south valley held steady around 75-80 regardless of time of day. It was bizarre and gross. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted August 6, 2014 Report Share Posted August 6, 2014 You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed?Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3fjSkAFd2U&feature=player_detailpage#t=11 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 6, 2014 Report Share Posted August 6, 2014 (.. routed to the Mountain West sub-forum.)http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?p=30835 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 6, 2014 Report Share Posted August 6, 2014 Welp, now it's smoky here again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 6, 2014 Report Share Posted August 6, 2014 Oh NW winds and marine clouds, it's good to have you back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 Maybe I can please Jesse...starting to think September may not be as warm and muggy in the west as recent years based on the latest data/modeling of the tropics and lower stratosphere. For one, the 50mb data shows the typical shear zone associated with the -QBO developing, signifying a maturing thermal wind, which will soon be pushing the tropical- tropopause's buttons..giving the MJO free will over the shackles of the antecedent ENSO forcing..so the wave-train should be responding to the MJO instead of the ENSO system: http://catchmypicture.com/f/8v3BsB/640.jpg So, all and all, tropical forcings are changing their mold for the time being...suggesting that we see a drop in the AAM heading into August, and a temporary collapse of the Niño-esque circulations that have dominated since...forever So, I'd anticipate: 1) A cooldown in the west, beginning in late-August, between the 25th and 30th, lasting for at least 10 days, perhaps up to 15-20 days depending on the amount of interaction between WPAC typhoon activity and the mid-latitude wave train..tricky one there.. 2) An uptick in Atlantic hurricane activity, with the east coast possibly in danger between August 20th and September 20th 3) Easterly wind bursts over the ENSO domain, possibly counteracting the new KW that is now progressing east 4) A return to western ridging sometime in mid/late September, possibly persisting into October or beyond..though not too confident on that one yet Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 49 this morning and the sun rise is now after 6 AM...fall can't be far behind! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 Wonderfully breezy and fresh out today with a bright blue sky. It's been awhile since the sky has been this blue, with all the smoke around. Days like today make the prospect of going back to hot, hazy, humid conditions seem all the more unappealing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement! #QBO #coupling http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.10N-20N.gif 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement! #QBO #coupling http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.10N-20N.gifWe're definitely gonna pay for this later. Cold/warm and/or wet/dry lovers beware! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement! #QBO #coupling #westernridging∞ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Holy s**t...talk about poleward AAM displacement! #QBO #coupling http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.10N-20N.gifSo with this referring to zonal wind anomalies are the positive and negative numbers east vs west, and if so which is defined to be positive? Or does it mean generally zonal vs meridianal(sp)? Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 So with this referring to zonal wind anomalies are the positive and negative numbers east vs west, and if so which is defined to be positive? Or does it mean generally zonal vs meridianal(sp)?Zonal, (E/-, W/+) but this easterly belt is global and displaced N of the equator (between 10-20N). Already a sign of poleward-propagating AAM balance, which is a tell-tale sign of a -AO regime down the road Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 #westernridging∞You'll like what September has in store #easternridging Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 You'll like what September has in store #easternridging I don't understand this phrase. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Well the 12Z certainly takes things in a different direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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