Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[Deweydog]

Looks like PDX may be taking another run at setting the all-time max/min for August, possibly avenging the failures of 8-17-08.  

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX may be taking another run at setting the all-time max/min for August, possibly avenging the failures of 8-17-08.  

 

I can't imagine any way they conceivably would fall below their morning low by midnight tonight.

[Deweydog]

I can't imagine any way they conceivably would fall below their morning low by midnight tonight.

 

Thunderstorm.

 

Not likely, but possible.  

[Tyler Mode]

Low of 65 here in BG.  That would be warmest low ever for this station (records just since 2010).

 

81 already.  Today is the first day that the average high drops a degree.  Hard to believe the current temp is above average and it's not even 10 AM.

 

Hoping for a decent storm outbreak today/tonight.  Some models show a repeat tomorrow and maybe even Wednesday (if not steady rain).

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I think 100 is a lock now for Portland. 95 for Seattle.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, I think 100 is a lock now for Portland. 95 for Seattle.

 

96-98.

[BLI snowman]

96-98.

 

Okay, you go down with that ship. I'll say 102. 

[Deweydog]

Okay, you go down with that ship. I'll say 102. 

 

I may regret it 'til the day I die.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually got down to a not to ridiculous 56 up at my place. Baking down here at my office on the river this morning. Salem was at 82 as of 10am a +11 from this time yesterday. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty smoky up here... might hold down temps.

[Jesse]

Low of 69 out here. Already up to 88. Looks like this will easily be the hottest day of the year.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX fell to 69 between hourly readings. Would still be a monthly record, barring any late evening thunderstorms.

 

What is downtown's record Max/Min for August?

[Phil]

60 degree dewpoints blowing in from the coast (apparently) are truly oppressive.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A3R3oxJr2X8/ShqUQKSyZ_I/AAAAAAAABvA/8GdeHkWhiMU/s400/dew_point.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The AC is not keeping up today and the humidity is just rising up off the river.

[Jesse]

The AC is not keeping up today and the humidity is just rising up off the river.

 

I just love this weather, don't you?

[Deweydog]

I just love this weather, don't you?

 

[Jesse]

PDX is 84 at noon. Would have to rise pretty quickly to hit the century mark.

[Deweydog]

PDX is 84 at noon. Would have to rise pretty quickly to hit the century mark.

 

Locked in.  Set it and forget it.  

[Jesse]

Locked in.  Set it and forget it.  

 

We'll probably have another shot in early October, right?

[BLI snowman]

PDX is 84 at noon. Would have to rise pretty quickly to hit the century mark.

 

Nah, it's already 87 at TTD and 88 at SPB, slightly more mixing down at the PDX/VUO part of the river but they'll bump up.

[Jesse]

Nah, it's already 87 at TTD and 88 at SPB, slightly more mixing down at the PDX/VUO part of the river but they'll bump up.

Already in the low 90s out here. But there looks to be a band of clouds approaching from the SE. May cap temps.

[Jesse]

At least the 12z runs have come back around to the idea of a trough in the mid-long range.

 

Could it be the dream-trough Dewey explicitly promised?

[Deweydog]

At least the 12z runs have come back around to the idea of a trough in the mid-long range.

 

Could it be the dream-trough Dewey explicitly promised?

No. That guy is clueless.

[Jesse]

Not as much lightning activity in Oregon as I was expecting to see at this point.

[Deweydog]

Not as much lightning activity in Oregon as I was expecting to see at this point.

Things have never looked all that favorable for today. NWS, in my opinion, oversold things.

[seattleweatherguy]

bothell already at 89 degrees

[Jesse]

Things have never looked all that favorable for today. NWS, in my opinion, oversold things.

6/4/09!!

[Deweydog]

6/4/09!!

 

I don't know where the hell that came from.

[Deweydog]

Definitely a bit of the subsidence inversion the models painted for today even several days ago.  98 at Larch Mountain (dp 46), 88 at PDX.  

[Jesse]

Definitely a bit of the subsidence inversion the models painted for today even several days ago.  98 at Larch Mountain (dp 46), 88 at PDX.  

 

97 here with a moderate east wind. We are pretty mixed out.

 

Becoming fairly cloudy in the last half hour, though.

[Deweydog]

97 here with a moderate east wind. We are pretty mixed out.

 

One of the reasons I was puzzled by how aggressive the NWS has been about storms.  I'm no expert when it comes to convection, but it seems to me there would be a serious cap out there right now.  Whatever we get seems like it would need to be seriously elevated.  

[Jesse]

One of the reasons I was puzzled by how aggressive the NWS has been about storms.  I'm no expert when it comes to convection, but it seems to me there would be a serious cap out there right now.  Whatever we get seems like it would need to be seriously elevated.  

 

Why the cap? Doesn't offshore flow usually help overcome that?

[Deweydog]

Why the cap? Doesn't offshore flow usually help overcome that?

 

As I understand it, offshore flow would increase it.  Or at least provide potential for one to develop.  I would assume it is eroding significant as any downslope we're seeing right now should end very soon.  

[Tyler Mode]

Just hit 100 here for the first time in 2 years.  Looks like the high clouds are just above to move in though.

[Phil]

At least the 12z runs have come back around to the idea of a trough in the mid-long range.

 

Could it be the dream-trough Dewey explicitly promised?

I'm not Dewey, but I do keep my promises

[Jesse]

It would be nice if every GFS solution wasn't wildly different than the one before.

[Phil]

As I understand it, offshore flow would increase it. Or at least provide potential for one to develop. I would assume it is eroding significant as any downslope we're seeing right now should end very soon.

It decreases buoyancy/ML lapse rates

[Phil]

It would be nice if every GFS solution wasn't wildly different than the one before.

ECMWF ensembles have been consistent despite their warm bias:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/BBd0HN/640.jpg

[Jesse]

ECMWF ensembles have been consistent despite their warm bias:

 

 

They are getting there.

[BLI snowman]

102 at Kelso (!!). 93 at PDX. Slackers.