richard mann Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 -"... first fall-like system" ... [first] "Sign of Fall", per Cliff Mass. — From his blog, posted later yesterday. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-sign-of-fall.html Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 When in Rome... Yes, go on... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 http://green2.kingcounty.gov/swimbeach/BeachData.aspx?Locator=0826SB&CurrentYear=trueI did go a couple days ago ind definitely did feel cooler. But 75 is too warm for a lake in my opinion. Lake Washington is never too warm... its barely gets to tolerable for a few weeks each summer. You might well be the first person to ever complain that its too warm! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 No we are not. But the ridging may come anyways. I have a feeling that September might end up that way after this weekend trough. And we have not had strong ridging in the past few months. We have just been in the sweet spot of a meandering pattern... again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 - For the record here Tim. (Fun, even.) .... I'm not seeing it either. @ Can you point to anything beyond what you have above, that might work to support this shift. ? — An analog or two. ? / Your warmer sea-surface temps theory and thinking. ? The law of averages, put together with your fairly general view and assessment of things looked at both more currently, along with more back through August previously above, don't really, very will. I don't think. What, if anything more specific, tells you that what you've pointed to as lending to a greater chance for ridging where looking ahead—to ".. from mid-September into October"—won't instead, more just to things continuing on as they have been. ? ... Basically, relatively short-lived ridging—if having generated significant, even noteworthy heat, more north-focused—with otherwise, plenty of general "breaks", more in between. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 NWS going with lows of 62, 60 and 59 at PDX the next three nights. I figured the mild nights weren't going anywhere. The very idea of PDX dropping below 60 anytime between now and October is clearly ridiculous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 Yes, go on...A bird in the hand... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 A bird in the hand... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 NWS going with lows of 62, 60 and 59 at PDX the next three nights. I figured the mild nights weren't going anywhere. The very idea of PDX dropping below 60 anytime between now and October is clearly ridiculous That 59 might feel a little nipply. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 And so it goes, PDX should this evening close out another 60+ degree day, tying last year's monthly record of 22. It'll be a tougher task, but if the 63 holds that will be #14 there or above for the month; adding to an already crooked record. Tasty. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 And so it goes, PDX should this evening close out another 60+ degree day, tying last year's monthly record of 22. It'll be a tougher task, but if the 63 holds that will be #14 there or above for the month; adding to an already crooked record. Tasty.Pleasant indeed. And we are in Portland now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 29, 2014 Report Share Posted August 29, 2014 That 59 might feel a little nipply.Do you actually seeing things staying that mild? I mean we do have a cooler airmass moving in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Do you actually seeing things staying that mild? I mean we do have a cooler airmass moving in.Pretty cloudy one and there isn't much frontogenesis or CAA. I don't see them getting 58 or so the rest of the month. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Pretty cloudy one and there isn't much frontogenesis or CAA. I don't see them getting 58 or so the rest of the month.Nelsen's going with 59 tomorrow morning. Cold bias!! At least things look more normal next week. Although I thought the same thing last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Nelsen's going with 59 tomorrow morning. Cold bias!! At least things look more normal next week. Although I thought the same thing last week.Next week looks pretty soupy, at least early on. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Next week looks pretty soupy, at least early on.I'm actually seeing some chilly night potential starting mid-week. But yeah, Monday/Tuesday mornings will probably be 55-60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Cooling has arrived out this way. Clear skies and 64 now, DP 53. Feels amazing out. Hit a high of 76 today with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low this morning was 58. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 79 here today briefly. Lots of people saying they are liking the cool down. I'm fine with the cool down but okay with the sun too. Really I'm waiting for that day after the first snow falls down to 6-7,000',the skies clear out and the mountains are white and the air is clean again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Wow, NWS nailed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Been raining since about 730am this morning up here. Very light rain, but oh so refreshing! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 ECMWF says summer is coming back. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yeah... its not like we have months and months of rain and crap ahead. Better hurry and end all nice weather so there is no glare on your computer screen. My kids agree that is the most important thing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 ECMWF says summer is coming back. Yet another cracked out run from the most reliable global model. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yet another cracked out run from the most reliable global model. Darn. You are almost always right when you say that. At least the GFS and Canadian agree that it will be summery next weekend. Just not to the extent of the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Holy crap. It's non-convective raining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 0.25" of rain here today. Me like. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 I'm thinking the second week of September will be very warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 After this gorgeous summer... there are SO many pastey-white, extremely obese people in Portland. And most of them are heavily tatooed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 ECMWF says summer is coming back. Clinging to the OP run 168hrs out? You're quite the wishcaster. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Clinging to the OP run 168hrs out? You're quite the wishcaster.Clinging? Just mentioned it. 12Z basically agrees. And where did I make a forecast anyways? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Clinging? Just mentioned it. 12Z basically agrees. And where did I make a forecast anyways? What do you suspect will happen, then? I have to say, you're a very talented troller I can't respond to this without sounding like a dumb, dense crank 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 I admit the moonshine is still in my system today. If I'm not making correct interpretations, let me know Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 What do you suspect will happen, then? I have to say, you're a very talented troller I can't respond to this without sounding like a dumb, dense crank Just mentioned what the most reliable model shows. I pretty much expect it to happen based on some consistency now. But it's not my forecast... just reporting what it showed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Just mentioned what the most reliable model shows. I pretty much expect it to happen based on some consistency now. But it's not my forecast... just reporting what it showed.What is your forecast? I'm definitely not on the ridgy bandwagon.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 What is your forecast? I'm definitely not on the ridgy bandwagon..Ridging along the immediate West Coast is very likely starting in 5 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 I'm thinking the second week of September will be very warm.This is just frustration over the lack of 600dm+ ridging this summer talking. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 This is just frustration over the lack of 600dm+ ridging this summer talking.I take it you agree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 I take it you agree?I think it'll be average or a bit above. Nothing too shocking considering what I thought was likely coming into the month. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 I think it'll be average or a bit above. Nothing too shocking considering what I thought was likely coming into the month.Sounds about right. I also think that the last half of the month could actually be troughier than the first. I also think PDX has a decent chance of dropping below 60 tonight, though. So don't take my outlook too seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 Sounds about right. I also think that the last half of the month could actually be troughier than the first. I also think PDX has a decent chance of dropping below 60 tonight, though. So don't take my outlook too seriously.I suspected the whole month would be on the benign side. Kinda looks that way so far. As for PDX, they already set a new precedent this morning if they can avoid dropping too quickly this evening. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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