tim the weatherman Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Gary Lezak would be thrilled if this comes even close to fruition! Lol...this storm track is a classic Texarkana cutter...too bad its 8-9 days away. I like the trends tho, as this is a similar storm track the Euro ensembles have been hinting at for days.a repeat in the making from the 2011 groundhogs day blizzard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 a repeat in the making from the 2011 groundhogs day blizzard.That would be a wonderful way to kick off Thanksgiving week! Still too many things to iron out this far out but I must say, the way the models are handling this piece of energy this far out are rather intriguing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm posting this just for you winterfreak. This should be your new profile pic lolSexy, all I need is that NW shift. Fun times ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Oh my god guys. Hurry up, lock it in! Stop teasing me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 check this out from accuweather fourmshttp://i.imgur.com/gj0jCZK.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/yWiFimi.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 That would be impressive if it wasn't fantasy land. We should all know nobody is going to see anywhere close to 40 inches. lolThis may become a massive storm for somebody though. We need to wait and see what the models are showing by the middle of next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 WOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 My god. We're not even in the jackpot zone, and would still get 24"!! Haha my god. Idk if I've honestly seen the GFS lay down that potent of a storm, even in fantasy land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 check this out from accuweather fourms Was just about to post that second one. I had to rub my eyes to make sure I wasn't seeing things! KC would be immobilized if that happened. That map is getting circulated around AMWX too! High of only 30° today. I think this November is going to beat out last November in terms of negative departures. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 this is a major winterstorm in the making with chicago on the northren side so that means chicago will be getting heavy snow with rates of 2 to 3 per hour that i am thinking that this storm could go neg tilt with thundersnow too.Man you love your thundersnow don't you?! Lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Man you love your thundersnow don't you?! Lol!Tim should definitely get a job at the Weather Channel. He would be perfect for it lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right??? Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay. That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air. This is a text book major snowstorm in the making. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right??? Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay. That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air. This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.this is a good sign and it looks like that we are line for a major snowstorm and a potentional blizzard in the making. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right??? Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay. That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air. This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.Still looks neutrally tilted but i have a feeling this goes negative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 this is a good sign and it looks like that we are line for a major snowstorm and a potentional blizzard in the making. If it does, it will be the first one I would experience in November! It'll be a major headline for sure. JB really liking that 76-77 winter analog. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Watch out, that 18z GFS-Parallel huge snowstorm is composed of erroneous sleet & ice. I don't have the WxBell p-type maps, but fishing around Tropical Tidbits shows the heavy sleet/ice accumulation where the huge snows should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Watch out, that 18z GFS-Parallel huge snowstorm is composed of erroneous sleet & ice. I don't have the WxBell p-type maps, but fishing around Tropical Tidbits shows the heavy sleet/ice accumulation where the huge snows should be. Across in KS and northern MO? I figured that was too snowy to be true! Below...Good point Tim. Was just thinking of that. There will probably be a lot of low level Arctic air in that region next week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Watch out, that 18z GFS-Parallel huge snowstorm is composed of erroneous sleet & ice. I don't have the WxBell p-type maps, but fishing around Tropical Tidbits shows the heavy sleet/ice accumulation where the huge snows should be.people in the erroneous sleet and ice accumulations needs to have their flaslights candles and generators handy because it looks like they could be without power for days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 I think we could be looking at epic ice accumulations in the kc area! Thunder snow from no mo s ia and through the Chicago area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 00Z GFS showing lots of rain next weekend. Not liking where the Thanksgiving storm trend is going. Where's that cold for that time some of you were talking about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just check out the placement of the trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles, very similar to the GFS Par, right??? Also, notice the ridge off the east coast hooking all the way towards Hudson bay. That is a good sign to keep it from cutting to far north and supply the system with cold air. This is a text book major snowstorm in the making.Yup, definitely a good sign. The thing is most of the moisture is going to be supplied by the gulf which will bring a lot of warm air as well. This storm is still in fantasy land, but I'm thinking this is going to be more like a classic Fall storm. Likely a heavy deformation band of frozen precip north of the SLP, but tons of rain to the south. Reminds me of a similar setup last year in December. Could definitely see a significant severe outbreak as well south of the low especially with the wind shear and instability present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yeah, hard to go against climo in November if the moisture is coming from the gulf. Probably be a rain storm. At least down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro is a HUGE storm. Sub 990 in Central IL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Several GGEM ensembles get the low down in the low 980's, but of course the track is all over the map. This could be a huge storm for someone down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro = classic Iowa snow event. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Obviously will change--- but looking at a major event--24 hour totals--http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014111600/mw/ecmwf_snow_24_mw_38.png Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 from DMX AM disco---THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS MOREUNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED SOME ADDITIONAL EVALUATION AS A SIGNAL FORA STRONGER STORM IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro is a HUGE storm. Sub 990 in Central IL. Yup absolutely a beastly storm on the 00Z Euro. I think we should make a thread on this fairly soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Crazy to think that a year ago Illinois was dealing with that large tornado outbreak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 This is def. not Nov temperatures coming up: Monday: H 18 L: 8 (WC -10 to -20)Tuesday: H 19 L: 13Wednesday: H 26 L: 11Thursday: H: 23 L: 6Friday: H: 23 L: 15 Average high is still above 40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 The latest GFS almost gives us not even a drop of precip the next 16 days here in Nebraska. Hope the "big one" doesn't miss us to the south and east.... Although we have already had 3" of snow here. We don't want to overdo it this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Euro = classic Iowa snow event. Really? I havent seen any maps. Your link didnt work. 12z run is coming out soon anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dadio Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Wow, exciting times for everyone over here. I'll have to watch and see how this works out. Good luck everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yeah http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 977? That is insane. And perfect track for my area. However, too much warm air. I really hope this thing can wrap up some cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 What do the winds look to be with a 977?? Gotta be insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yay a rain storm on the new parallel GFS! That's kind of what I expect anyway lol given where the moisture will be coming from and the fact that it won't be nearly as big of a cold pool next wee. The roller coaster shall continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 GGEM: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2014 Report Share Posted November 16, 2014 2 days later: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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