Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 4KM Nam. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_ref_us_12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_ref_us_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_ref_us_14.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_ref_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_ref_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 I think the models were underestimating the amount of gulf moisture being tapped into this system...now since the system is fully over land and getting better data, we're seeing better results. Â Interested to see what the GGEM/EURO show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 00z RGEM thru 00z Sunday...keep in mind 10:1 ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 It looks to me there is better phasing with tonights runs??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 4km NAM looks pretty juiced up! James I think you're getting at least 3". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 18z 4km NAM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111318/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png 0z 4km NAM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111400/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 So far NAM/GFS Par/GGEM going with heavier precip with the northern band. Â Maybe the models are trying to sniff out better phasing with northern stream??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Here is the GGEM with actual ratios taking in:Â http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111400/gem_asnow_us_15.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 If you guys want a good link to check out the weather models go here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Has pretty much every model including GGEM snowmap, GEFS etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 So far NAM/GFS Par/GGEM going with heavier precip with the northern band.  Maybe the models are trying to sniff out better phasing with northern stream??? Love the trends tonight. Hopefully we can get this a little farther east before it falls apart. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'll take the GGEM please! Let's see what the king euro says, hopefully a nice phased system for all of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Here is the GGEM with actual ratios taking in:Â http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111400/gem_asnow_us_15.pngD**n, that is alot of snow for NE/SD/IA! Â If the 00z Euro shows anything similar, I think the trends will continue. Â Tomorrow runs may even be better now since the models will be gathering even better data. Â BIG differences from yesterday for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah it is. Ratios should be so good though. .25 QPF would probably be 4-6 inches with 15-18:1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Southern part looking kinda meh. Please phase so we're all happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Just to compare: 12z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111312/gfs_asnow_us_13.png 0z GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111400/gfs_asnow_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z Parallel GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111312/gfsp_asnow_us_13.png 0z Parallel GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111400/gfsp_asnow_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z GGEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111312/gem_asnow_us_12.png 0z GGEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111400/gem_asnow_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Now we wait for king euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 00z Euro...not showing as robust snow in KS anymore...throwing more snow into the northern band this run from previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Def. wetter than the 12z run for up here:Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 We'll see what the high-rez models start showing tomorrow...it would be nice to get 2"+ out of this around here. Â Def cover the grass up and make everything white. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Through HR 48:Â WRF-NMM:Â http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_048_precip_p48.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 HRW-ARW:Â http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_048_precip_p48.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 My first WWA of the year! 2-3 with isolated 4. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'am with you James. But what a poorly detailed discussion by DMX-- no mention of it in the body. DMX is noted for poor discussion over the years...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Any reason as to why it falls apart as it heads east? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Dry air and limited dynamics further east and north. If you really want to geek out (I know you do!!) read this mornings AFD out of La Crosse. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ARX&issuedby=ARX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1  STRONGER TREND AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS SENDS RATHER STRONG 500-300MB PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THISWITH MDT/STRONG 285-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH IS MAINLY BETWEEN700-350MB...AND 300MB AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW/DIVERGENCE BETWEEN JETMAXES NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DEEP SATURATION OF THECOLUMN INDICATED BY SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MUCHOF SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN/AIRMASSPW VALUES ONLY AROUND 1/3 INCH CENTERED ON 00Z SUN. DEEP DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ INDICATED SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TO THE TUNE OF300MB IN A ROUGHLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 900-600MB. BULK OF THEFORCING/LIFT SIGNAL IS ABOVE 700MB...ONLY OVERLAPPING THE TOP OFTHE DGZ LAYER. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 600-350MB LAYER FOR GOODVERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE TO THE FORCING/LIFT ALOFT...BUT THENEARLY ISOTHERMAL DGZ LAYER WILL BE MORE RESISTANT TO LIFTING.FORCING/LIFT IN THE 925-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS QUITE WEAKAND LOOKS INEFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING MUCH FOR UPWARD MOTION IN THECOLUMN BELOW 700MB. GIVEN THE LIFT IS HIGHER UP AND LIMITED UPWARDMOTION IN THE DGZ PORTION OF THE COLUMN...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUTSNOW-WATER RATIOS. TREND AMONG MODELS IS FOR THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE/FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO SQUEEZE MORE QPF OUT OF THE COLUMN ACROSSTHE AREA. HIGHER QPF BUT LOWER SNOW-WATER RATIOS...SNOW AMOUNTS INTHE FCST GRIDS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME...IN THE1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. HIGHEST WEST/SOUTH WITH BIT STRONGER LIFT ANDHIGHER PW VALUE AIR. DID RAISE SNOW CHANCES FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING TO 80-100 PERCENT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH 3/4 OF THE FCSTAREA. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY YET NEED A SNOW ADVISORYFOR PORTION OF THE FCST AREA IF THE STRONGER TREND CONTINUES ANDSNOW-WATER RATIOS END UP ON THE HIGHER SIDE...MORE IN THE 15 TO20 TO 1 RANGE. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Pretty growing consensus that we might squeeze 3-4 inches out of this thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 First WWA of the season. Kind of exciting for mid November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 One of the better aspects of this snowfall is the wind should be 10mph or less, so should be a nice peaceful snowfall that doesn't blow or drift and affect measurements. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 06z RGEM thru 06z Sunday...parts of KS/IA/SD/MN may do real well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Far as WGN tv Met's go, they have been saying 1-3", heavier north and northwest suburbs. 12z GFS parallel   Rooting for the 2" line to make it to the lake at least. 12z 4km NAM brings the 3" line further towards the lake.  Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 GEOS any idea what ratios those maps are using? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 GEOS any idea what ratios those maps are using? Definitely not 10:1. Looks like closer to 15-18:1. You can compare it to the total accumulated precipitation map and try to figure out what the ratio might be. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/ --- CMC snowfall at 10:1. Northern wave shifted south.   MKX snowfall map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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