james1976 Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Is it a cutter or what? GFS OP is showing a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 It almost looks like that Christmas Day cut-off monster that hit the Plains a few years back...sits and spins for 24-48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 OP GFS has -20 temps for highs in SD/ND/MN with a 1050 H moving in at HR 384 Def. signals of it turning much colder in about 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Is it a cutter or what? GFS OP is showing a clipper.It's basically 2 pieces of energy that phase into one monster storm. One piece comes down from the north and the other from the south and phases into one. I think this storm is correlating well with the East Asian Theory. Notice in Japan there are 2 separate pieces that eventually phase into one huge storm out that way. The 18z GFS Par and 00z GFS both show 2 separate pieces, but the 00z run phased these pieces together. The 12z Euro also showed 2 distinct pieces of energy as well but didn't phase. Plenty of time to see how this one unfolds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yup, it has a bomb...by my judgement the low is centrerd towards danville il also nine days away if this verfies we might have to make a thread towards this weekend remenber the groundhogs day blizzard of 2011 when the low went right through central illinois this one is taking a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 OP GFS has -20 temps for highs in SD/ND/MN with a 1050 H moving in at HR 384 Def. signals of it turning much colder in about 7-10 daysHere comes the PV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Here comes the PV...also skilling said on wgn tv website goodbye to the milder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 This might be the next one to track. The system for the 20th looks like its a weak wave sailing off to the east coast. Christmas Eve and after look to get interesting. Still a ways out yet.....but I'll be watching. Winter has to arrive at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 by my judgement the low is centrerd towards danville il also nine days away if this verfies we might have to make a thread towards this weekend remenber the groundhogs day blizzard of 2011 when the low went right through central illinois this one is taking a similar track. On one model run lol! Hold your horses partner, although I agree there is good potential in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 There is your snow KC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Thank you very much Tom lol. We'll take the measley two inches for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro kinda looking like the GFS Par for Christmas Eve... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 That's HR 108 Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Look at how similar this set up is compared to how the storm near Japan is looking on the 00z GFS map I posted earlier. Crazy similarities. East Asian correlation all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 That's HR 108 TomMy bad, just fixed it...nice hit Wisco... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles sniffing this storm out days ago, now the operationally slowly coming along. The jet structure on this storm looks great. Nice big buckle that can spin up monster storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Right on it's heels there comes a big storm heading out of the Rockies on Christmas Day ejecting east out into the Plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 This is exactly the type of pattern that leads many to forget how mild/no snow it was 1-2 weeks ago. People have a short a memory. Most areas of the Upper Midwest will have a White Christmas with brutal air the following week. 1 The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 6z GFS trying to phase the energy it looks like with the 23-24th and then a big storm around the 27th. Looking active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like some major cold moving back to the area! 20-30 below normal readings on December 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro kinda looking like the GFS Par for Christmas Eve...Where do I sign up. Either way hopefully we can start battling over storm tracks rather than boring stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Could be a really interesting and snowy pattern in the next 2 weeks. Traveling to relatives in Kansas City for Christmas from Central Nebraska. Leaving on Friday the 19th and coming back on the 22nd. Hopefully snow before and after. It is a nice 5 hour 15 minute drive in good weather conditions but horrendously long during storms. I remember several times having to stop in Lincoln or York or even Kearney and get a hotel room on the way home as I-80 was closed or so much traffic was backed up for accidents it was safer to pull over. Safe travels to all over the holidays and think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 On a side note- It's nice to see California getting lots of moisture. They've done pretty good this month already and on the 06Z GFS it has probably 90% of the state with 1"+ of moisture and probably 40% of the state with 5"+!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks pretty good to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks pretty good to me:Yep.. All the bashing those maps got for that time period made no sense at all. The CPC gets it wrong but this was a time period in which it was basically a given to be above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Don't tease me like this! 00z Euro kinda looking like the GFS Par for Christmas Eve... WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z Euro Ensembles/Control really hitting this system on Christmas Eve...the model is also consistently seeing that SE ridge build in during the middle/long range and that is a primo pattern to see cutters around these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 This can actually bode well for LES in snow belts. I remember last year, we already saw 3 nights subzero for ORD by now. I'm sure we will pay for it late this month into January. Let's build that snow cover first though. Meantime, Euro Control is showing the nation in the deep freeze for NYE! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Tom its a long ways out but the number of models hitting at it is a great sign. Usually big dogs get sniffed out pretty early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 This can actually bode well for LES in snow belts. I remember last year, we already saw 3 nights subzero for ORD by now. I'm sure we will pay for it late this month into January. Let's build that snow cover first though. Meantime, Euro Control is showing the nation in the deep freeze for NYE!Hopefully we have nice snowpack before the deep freeze hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Tom, what I notice different than last year, is that the models want to keep the cold more over the plains than over the Great Lakes. That should bode well for storms that want to ride up from the southwest, plenty of cold air to work with as long as they are not supressed to far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Tom, what I notice different than last year, is that the models want to keep the cold more over the plains than over the Great Lakes. That should bode well for storms that want to ride up from the southwest, plenty of cold air to work with as long as they are not supressed to far south.Much different pattern than last year for sure. You also have the Pacific storm train slamming into the west coast and with a trough in the central CONUS, this will certainly continue to spin up storm systems. Wait till Jan/Feb when the STJ becomes amped up and then even more moisture gets infiltrated into the pattern. Fun times ahead. Been waiting for this pattern of the LRC to cycle back through. Good thing is that this year its a very short 41-42 day cycle which means less time waiting for the storms to cycle through! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Holy storms on the 12z GFS... Has a strong clipper, has a strong L in the NE and a huge storm developing in the plains all within 24-48 hrs of each other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Holy storms on the 12z GFS... Has a strong clipper, has a strong L in the NE and a huge storm developing in the plains all within 24-48 hrs of each otherVery messy looking. I am guessing its a confused model right now. But without doubt would have to think something interesting will come out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 and then highs don't get above 20 the rest of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm trying everything to bring snow to Wisconsin. Here's the official snow dance from Da Yoopers![video=youtube_share;VZgGddMhnPo] 1 WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro Ensembles were showing 3 big storm systems all before NYE from the Plains to the Lakes. You can thank that SE ridge boys and girls. I remember ppl were worried the east coast would get all the action, but that has all but REVERSED due to the tanking PNA! Something we saw last year with a predominant -PNA but with NO blocking present and the systems were sheared. This will be the year with phased systems and the pattern to close off December might be a memorable one, especially during the Holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro Ensembles were showing 3 big storm systems all before NYE from the Plains to the Lakes. You can thank that SE ridge boys and girls. I remember ppl were worried the east coast would get all the action, but that has all but REVERSED due to the tanking PNA! Something we saw last year with a predominant -PNA but with NO blocking present and the systems were sheared. This will be the year with phased systems and the pattern to close off December might be a memorable one, especially during the Holidays.i am suspecting that the nao has something to do with it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS still doesnt excite me. Hope it is wrong on the first storm being a strong clipper. That could really mess up anything that wants to applify after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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