Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 RGEM precip maps 38 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_038.png 40 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_040.png 42 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_042.png 44 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_044.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 47 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_047.png 48 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122300/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122300_048.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 also lot has said a lot of convection a.k.a.thundersnow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I may have to eat my words. I was downplaying the convection in play and how this can increase totals substantially. Global models aren't able to get those mesoscale factors. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 @ Money's maps... definitely came in further SE. Skilling on the storm talk now. RPM shows the snow starting in NE IL around 9:30AM. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 OP GFS 984 in C. MI at HR 45. Parallel GFS for the win? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 GFS through 60- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think that's a 3 hour period snowfall map Grizz. Should look closer to this. RPM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Parallel GFS nearly identical to 18z. Maybe 1 MB stronger and a smidge west 0z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_7.png 18z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nope -- total snowfall through period. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 36 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png 18z HR 42 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think that's a 3 hour period snowfall map Grizz. Should look closer to this. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_11.png RPM RPM_snowfall_122414.png Yeah, that's total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nope -- total snowfall through period.Wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 18z HR 48 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png 0z HR 42 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wrong Check it yourself. It right according to instant weather. 5" of snow in NC IA in 3 hours??? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 48 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_9.png 18z HR 54 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I don't think the GFS is handling the dynamic cooling that will be taken place with this system. The rain/snow line will be hugging just to the NW of wherever this storm system tracks. Watch the models increase snow totals as we get closer. This will be a rapidly developing system and I've seen this before where models start off weak only to get stronger/wetter as we get closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Instant weather maps uses actual ratios and stuff while wxbell is 10:1 ratios That's why you see such a difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z GFS Par... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Check it yourself. It right according to instant weather. 5" of snow in NC IA in 3 hours???ok, bro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nope -- total snowfall through period. I think that site uses a different algorithm. It's not factoring in the dynamics very well. --- PGFS comes in like this. Nevermind Tom posted it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Check out the consistency from the GFS Parallel 12-22 (0z) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png 12-22 (6z) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png 12-22 (12z) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png 12-22 (18z) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png 12-23 (0z) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Holding out hope money...but I think we are toast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hey Tony, are you liking the trends tonight??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00Z RGEM and still snowing. You guys are going to love this... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I am loving it so far. Just hoping now that it does not continue to trend too far west. Storm seems to be getting stronger and wetter, maybe some subtropical influence as well as wide open GOM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Not going to get too excited till tomorrow but not going to lie, I really really like where we sit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think this thing could potentially get down in the 970's. OP GFS which is usually the more progressive model gets this down in the low 980's. Hi-res models coming out now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Winter storm watches probably coming soon now. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 GGEM/UKIE still east GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Added to the WWA! Tomorrow morning sounds like fun. * FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN A BAND FROM MARSHFIELD ANDWISCONSIN RAPIDS, THROUGH WAUSAU, TO WAUSAUKEE FOR THETUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL SHIFT INTONORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING. * THE SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. * A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAYEVENING. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a friend who is flying into O'Hare from Mexico Wednesday night. I told him that he probably doesn't have much of a chance of getting in on time. While we may enjoy the snow this is going to be a giant hassle for travelers on the busiest travel day in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 WRF-NMM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_041_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I have a friend who is flying into O'Hare from Mexico Wednesday night. I told him that he probably doesn't have much of a chance of getting in on time. While we may enjoy the snow this is going to be a giant hassle for travelers on the busiest travel day in the year.Yep. I wish I could be super excited about this, but knowing I'm supposed to make stops in Plainfield & Belvidere on Christmas Eve make the current trends pretty problematic. So rather than super excited, I'm just a little excited. Lol Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 WRF-NMM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_041_1000_500_thick.gif Considering we're nearing 36 hours out from the start of the precip, I'm still seeing a ton of disagreement amongst the models. A blend of all of them would probably put MKE in a good position, but this WRF NMM you're showing is too far west to be any good and will probably cut right through MKE. Then on the eastern fringes we have the GEM and UKIE still taking the low into E Lower Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z GGEM...high rez models are the way to go from now on...Global models are pretty much all in agreement on track. High Rez models will do a much better job pin pointing the defo band/snow totals/etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Considering we're nearing 36 hours out from the start of the precip, I'm still seeing a ton of disagreement amongst the models. A blend of all of them would probably put MKE in a good position, but this WRF NMM you're showing is too far west to be any good and will probably cut right through MKE. Then on the eastern fringes we have the GEM and UKIE still taking the low into E Lower Michigan. It's because of the resolution in the models. GGEM/UKIE are more long-range models and shouldn't really be considered within 48-72 hours of events. All the hi-res models will be able to pick up on this much better because it's what they're designed for. Even the often tame ARW gets the low down into the 980's in SW MI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z GGEM...high rez models are the way to go from now on...Global models are pretty much all in agreement on track. High Rez models will do a much better job pin pointing the defo band/snow totals/etc But will they do a good job wrt the low ratios? We're talking perhaps 6-8:1 snow ratios, though I hope to heck I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Here is the ARW which is usually on the SE/weaker end of the models http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_045_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_046_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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