Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[GDR]

993 in E. IN at HR 27. Moves more NE rather than N

 

No one sees snow this run really. Temps look too warm in the Chicago area.

not according to Tom's map!

[LegitWebos7]

any chance mchenry county gets hit?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

not according to Tom's map!

 

Not your guaranteed 10-12" of snow either, though.

[Scott26]

LOT should have some sort of headline by noon according to Gino's AFD last night. Probably a Winter Storm Watch I would think due to the potential of 6+. I'm interested which areas will be outlined. My guess is they will probably have a watch out for the 2 eastern tiers of counties and maybe parts of NW Indiana as well.

[GDR]

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lot/wx/File.png

[Money]

Put it in writing, western subs of Chicago will get 10+ in spots!!

 

smh

[Geos]

Riding a fine line on the 4km NAM here. That's quite the back edge cutoff.

[LegitWebos7]

Riding a fine line on the 4km NAM here. That's quite the back edge cutoff.

 

yeah starting to think mchenry and lake counties are going to be out of it

 

clear agreement on the best banding being from the city south

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

[indianajohn]

Been busy last so I havent had a chance to keep up with the ongoing storm track. So whats the latest? Chicago/Nwi Indiana still in play?

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.png

[Nick]

This storm is going to be fun to watch evolve. I remember a few storms with similar set ups to this one that ended up trending NW at the last possible second.

[Maxim]

Actually wouldn't mind a slight shift to the NW at this point.

[Geos]

yeah starting to think mchenry and lake counties are going to be out of it

 

clear agreement on the best banding being from the city south

 

I wouldn't sweat it too much. I don't think the back edge will be that sharp. A lot of time the deformation band ends up being wider than forecasted.

[tim the weatherman]

I wouldn't sweat it too much. I don't think the back edge will be that sharp. A lot of time the deformation band ends up being wider than forecasted.

the narrow band don't means nothing we cand have it wide too.

[Maxim]

yeah starting to think mchenry and lake counties are going to be out of it

 

clear agreement on the best banding being from the city south

Nah, I think Lake and Mchenry counties will be fine. Winnebago county might be cutting it though.

[Maxim]

Put it in writing, western subs of Chicago will get 10+ in spots!!

lol ok

[Tom]

This heavy wet snow should be a good starter to build that snow base and when it freezes over it'll be hard to melt if a January Thaw comes.  Last year we never had a wet snow and the snow settled 30% of the total snowfall it seemed like for every storm.  So I don't mind having a wet snow and the scenery will look quite nice having the snow plastered to everything in sight.  It will definitely be a white scene out there on Christmas Day and if the sun does ever come out, better make sure your shades are around.

[tim the weatherman]

lot just mentioned on their facebook that a line from marengo to lasalle on east is favored to get heavy wet snow and they will have a discussion this afternoon after they look at some more model data and after that they might issued a winter storm watch.

[Scott26]

lot just mentioned on their facebook that a line from marengo to lasalle on east is favored to get heavy wet snow and they will have a discussion this afternoon after they look at some more model data and after that they might issued a winter storm watch.

My guess is that they end up issuing a Winter Storm Watch for those areas. So once there is some more certainty on the heaviest amounts they can update part of it to a Winter Storm Warning and part of it to a Winter Weather Advisory if need be.

[Geos]

Latest LOT special weather statement.

 

954 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 /1054 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014/...PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE GROWING INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A PERIOD OFHEAVY WET SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUINGINTO WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS ORNORTHWEST INDIANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND ISEXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY NARROW...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOINDICATE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES PER HOURAND NEAR WHITE OUT VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW. THE EXPECTEDLOCALIZED NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINTWHERE EXACTLY IT WILL OCCUR. IT COULD BE AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWESTINDIANA OR POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS A MARENGO TO LASALLE LINE.THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTINDIANA WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.HOWEVER...WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP...THERE IS A POTENTIALFOR A SWATH OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY...WET SNOW TOOCCUR WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BEIMPACTED BY A WINTER STORM THAT COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT TO NEARLYIMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL ON WEDNESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ANDPOTENTIALLY PLAN TO ALTER TRAVEL PLANS AS NEEDED.$$JEE

[Tom]

Doh!  12z Euro...King Euro the outlier???

[Scott26]

Doh!  12z Euro...King Euro the outlier???

I thought we were done looking at the global models? haha

[gosaints]

Ignore at ur own risk

[Geos]

Wow, I can't believe the EURO is that far East.

[Maxim]

Doh!  12z Euro...King Euro the outlier???

Uh oh.... Storm is cancelled! 

[BigDizBliz420]

Ignore at ur own risk

 

 

i thought you said rain for chicago, now a miss east?

 

you aren't very consistent, lol!

[gosaints]

I was only stating what I saw on other models. I have no clue what will happen

[Scott26]

Ignore at ur own risk

For one it's the eastern outlier by far. Two, if you take a look at all of the latest Euro control runs they all had the defo band right over Chicago like the rest of the models currently. It shouldn't be ignored, but it's doubtful that it comes to fruition.

[Maxim]

For one it's the eastern outlier by far. Two, if you take a look at all of the latest Euro control runs they all had the defo band right over Chicago like the rest of the models currently. It shouldn't be ignored, but I bet it's doubtful it comes to fruition.

No chance it comes to fruition 

[Maxim]

It wouldn't make sense that there would be an east trend with such a deepening system. A west trend would be more feasible, which is why I wouldn't rule out a last minute NW shift with the defo band.

[Tom]

I thought we were done looking at the global models? haha

It doesn't hurt to take a peak!  

[Geos]

Hi-res ARW is nice looking!

 

 

 

 

NMM

 

[gosaints]

Crazy to see waa kicking 24 hours after the snow flies on the euro.

[Scott26]

Hi-res ARW is nice looking!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_030_sim_radar.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_031_sim_radar.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_048_precip_p48.gif

 

NMM

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_conus_048_precip_p48.gif

Wow... if that was all snow even with 6-7:1 ratios the totals would still be very impressive.

[Geos]

RPM was a combination of the EURO and the rest of the models in terms of deformation band placement. Skilling wasn't really saying which model he was counting on. lol

[Maxim]

GEFS disagrees with the EURO...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-163-0-71520300-1419359098.png

[GDR]

I'm Afraid what snow we do get will melt down quickly with the sun out Thursday and Friday. Temps are going to also hover around 40.

[NEJeremy]

a totally different set up out here, but we were supposed to be getting snow today and instead it's 35 and another cold rainy day. have had over 3/4" of rain here since yesterday. bah humbug!!