January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Good point. We have always had some characteristics. Places like Redding, Rome and Athens are a lot closer, though.

 

Every year, with the background warming trend you yourself acknowledge, we inch just a little closer!

We're closer now than we were 100 years ago, obviously, but we're talking semantics. Less "goodies" does not equal a climate reincarnation.

 

2018-19 will be a bone-chilling year and all will once again be right with the world.

[Deweydog]

You should go to the Cheesecake Factory if you're at Washington Square.

At 5 on a Saturday???? Good ******* luck!

[Deweydog]

Getting breezy here at the coast! Warm too!!!

[richard mann]

... All equating to the idea that ...

 

— ..read my blog. 

[Phil]

Weenie freak out alert.

Yup..I lol'ed

[Phil]

I expect WeatherPhil to have the climate of Ashville in about 30 years.

I think this is a case of Jesse just being Jesse, I wouldn't get sucked in.

 

Just FWIW, the climate here has actually cooled since the 1930s/40s, and the snowfall average has almost doubled.

[richard mann]

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/ZzyPV5/640.jpg

 

 

.. Looks like a Chicken.

[BLI snowman]

At 5 on a Saturday???? Good ******* luck!

 

5's still a little early for dinner. 

[snow_wizard]

We are gradually becoming a Mediterranean climate. Should happen in a big way over the next 20-30 years.

 

Even as horrible as it's been we are still way colder than that.

 

January norms for a few Med Cities...

 

Athens... 55.9 / 44.2

 

Rome... 53.4 / 37.6

 

Marseille... 53.2 / 40.8

 

Needless to say our climate was nowhere near Mediterranean prior to 1975.

[Front Ranger]

The euro is not horrible. Obviously we need the ridge to retrograde a little further but it's closeish to being okay.

 

Unfortunately, the ensembles and GFS are not nearly as good.

[Front Ranger]

Make no mistake, this month has been a torch. Upper levels matter the most, but even in the lowlands it'll end up with a large number of 50+ days and no significant cold.

 

I've never understood this line of thinking. Doesn't what you actually experience on the ground matter more?

[Deweydog]

5's still a little early for dinner.

If you wanna wait less than 30 minutes you better get there about 3. You're pissing with the big boys at The Cheesecake Factory.

[Front Ranger]

Very warm air on the way. SLE up to 58. Could get the frogs croaking earlier this spring.

 

Strange to see such a condensed "winter" season. Things were very summer like, with blooming flowers, green trees etc through the end of October this year. Now there are already trees blossoming in spots, bulbs pushing up just 2 1/2 months later.

 

Probably the shortest dormant season I have ever witnessed here.

 

Yeah...and then there is the matter of what happened in early Nov. You know, one of the coldest events that early for parts of the PNW.

 

You are overreacting.

[Front Ranger]

More of a fairly sober observation, really.

 

We will still see wintery events here and there, but the underlying long term warming trend will continue as it has the last century or more. No real reason to think otherwise.

 

We are so ridiculously removed from the climate of 30 years ago, Extrapolate that out another 30 years and Sacramento jr really isn't much of a stretch.

 

Good lord. Tell this to the people in the Midwest, who had one of the most brutal winters in the past 50 years last winter. You are extrapolating your regional, recent experience into a global warming effect. Too bad that same logic wouldn't work in many other regions.

 

 

[Jesse]

Funny how one cannot make pretty obvious observations about our warming climate here without getting a bunch of flack.

 

Rather than taking my comments out of context perhaps someone can offer up some proof that we haven't been warming for the past century or more. Oh, there's no way to refute that? Hmmmm...

[Front Ranger]

Funny how one cannot make pretty obvious observations about our warming climate here without getting a bunch of flack.

 

Rather than taking my comments out of context perhaps someone can offer up some proof that we haven't been warming for the past century or more. Oh, there's no way to refute that? Hmmmm...

 

You were citing a condensed winter season. Do you have any proof that the growing season in the PNW has grown appreciably longer in recent years?

 

You also said the climate today is "ridiculously removed" from 30 years ago. Seems like an overstatement. As dewey pointed out, the PNW climate might be slightly more Mediterranean than it was 30-40 years ago, but that's not saying much. 

 

Obviously, the recent warm stretch in the PNW had a significant impact on you. If you had experienced the past year or so in Chicago, you might feel differently. 

 

The global climate is slowly warming, but regional climate differences over the course of 30 years are influenced much more by other factors. As it is, 2013-14 was one of the snowiest winters for the Willamette Valley as a whole in the past 40 years. 

[BLI snowman]

I've never understood this line of thinking. Doesn't what you actually experience on the ground matter more?

 

Queue January 2013 defense.

 

It's been a mild, ridgy month. Bland weather for us has been the result. If the upper level patterns were better, the weather at the surface might be better too. 

[Front Ranger]

Queue January 2013 defense.

 

It's been a mild, ridgy month. Bland weather for us has been the result. If the upper level patterns were better, the weather at the surface might be better too. 

 

Cue?

 

Sure, it's been a mild, ridgy month. Just don't understand saying "upper levels matter most". At the end of the day, what's experienced on the ground is what's remembered and measured. That's what determines the averages/anomalies we call climate.

[Jesse]

Probably will shut down the forum seeing how we are becoming a warm and dull climate, and the only people who actively discuss weather are sociopaths.

 

Looking forward to the wind tomorrow. Also the game.

 

Also, unless you subscribe to AGW theories that would make a UC Berkley prof blush, to say that we are going "Mediterranean" is about as obsured as #IceAge2017 #Maunder4President.

According to Matt, we already are a quasi-Mediterranean climate.

 

No need to shut the forum down. We should be allowed to discuss long term local and global climate trends openly.

 

There will always be interesting weather to follow even as our climate slowly warms!

[Deweydog]

Funny how one cannot make pretty obvious observations about our warming climate here without getting a bunch of flack.

 

Rather than taking my comments out of context perhaps someone can offer up some proof that we haven't been warming for the past century or more. Oh, there's no way to refute that? Hmmmm...

You couldn't have not known the common sense police were going to show up.

[Jesse]

You were citing a condensed winter season. Do you have any proof that the growing season in the PNW has grown appreciably longer in recent years?

 

You also said the climate today is "ridiculously removed" from 30 years ago. Seems like an overstatement. As dewey pointed out, the PNW climate might be slightly more Mediterranean than it was 30-40 years ago, but that's not saying much.

 

Obviously, the recent warm stretch in the PNW had a significant impact on you. If you had experienced the past year or so in Chicago, you might feel differently.

 

The global climate is slowly warming, but regional climate differences over the course of 30 years are influenced much more by other factors. As it is, 2013-14 was one of the snowiest winters for the Willamette Valley as a whole in the past 40 years.

Paint me as a homer if you'd like. Unfortunately, 2014 happened to be the warmest year on record globally as well. #truthhurts

 

Trust me, if the globe as a whole were running rather cool and we were an isolated warm spot I would certainly acknowledge the disparity.

[Jesse]

You couldn't have not known the common sense police were going to show up.

Flatiron?

[Phil]

Probably will shut down the forum seeing how we are becoming a warm and dull climate, and the only people who actively discuss weather are sociopaths.

 

Looking forward to the wind tomorrow. Also the game.

 

Also, unless you subscribe to AGW theories that would make a UC Berkley prof blush, to say that we are going "Mediterranean" is about as obsured as #IceAge2017 #Maunder4President.

I know you mean well, but you could do a better job when it comes to righting-ship here. Having worked with "sociopaths" in the past, I can say with confidence that very few posters here actually fit that bill..maybe one or two? Even in jest, I think that's kind of low down.

 

Furthermore, I've noticed you make a lot of allusions to me, many of which are false and/or exaggerated..(#iceage2017 being the latest example). I don't know whether this is intentional or not, but I've picked up on it over the last 6-8 weeks. If you'd like to chat with me (about anything) feel free to PM me or shoot me a text.

[Jesse]

Even as horrible as it's been we are still way colder than that.

 

January norms for a few Med Cities...

 

Athens... 55.9 / 44.2

 

Rome... 53.4 / 37.6

 

Marseille... 53.2 / 40.8

 

Needless to say our climate was nowhere near Mediterranean prior to 1975.

 

Believe me, I would love to see it go back too. 

 

Hoping so much for something that probably won't happen is no fun, though. I've learned that over the past ten years.

[Phil]

Paint me as a homer if you'd like. Unfortunately, 2014 happened to be the warmest year on record globally as well. #truthhurts

 

Trust me, if the globe as a whole were running rather cool and we were an isolated warm spot I would certainly acknowledge the disparity.

At the surface, yes, by 0.04C..satellites didn't come close. I'm surprised it wasn't warmer, actually, given the systematic trends since January of 2013.

[BLI snowman]

Cue?

 

Sure, it's been a mild, ridgy month. Just don't understand saying "upper levels matter most". At the end of the day, what's experienced on the ground is what's remembered and measured. That's what determines the averages/anomalies we call climate.

 

Brainfart.

 

The upper levels matter a lot in determining how mild a weather pattern is. A few modest inversion days, but the upper levels have been very warm this entire month. It's been a quiet, warm month.

[Jesse]

You should go to the Cheesecake Factory if you're at Washington Square. 

 

I would but we don't do the gluten.

[Front Ranger]

Paint me as a homer if you'd like. Unfortunately, 2014 happened to be the warmest year on record globally as well. #truthhurts

 

Trust me, if the globe as a whole were running rather cool and we were an isolated warm spot I would certainly acknowledge the disparity.

 

And yet in 2013-14 the Willamette Valley still had one of its snowiest winters in the past 40 years. Doesn't really fit with your Mediterranean/increasingly hopeless for winter weather weenies narrative.

 

Also, 2014 may have been warmest globally on GISS, but look at the year many regions of the U.S. had. Clearly, global temps don't matter a whole lot when you get a good pattern for cold in your region.

[Phil]

Just to point out the facts, the anticipated "leveling off" of temperatures continues with the ERBS/CERES flux anomalies remaining above +1.9W/m^2 since 2009...suggesting a net loss of energy in the atmosphere/upper oceans since then. I suspect the deeper oceans will continue to warm, as they're very high in capacity and rely on the process of diffusion to equilibrate with the upper boundary layer:

 

 

 

[richard mann]

I know you mean well, but you could do a better job ....

 

Furthermore, I've noticed you make a lot of allusions to me, many of which are false and/or exaggerated..... I don't know whether this is intentional or not, but I've picked up on it ... If you'd like to chat with me (about anything) feel free to PM me or shoot me a text.

Pure genius.

[Phil]

2014 should have been much warmer, actually:

 

1) Tropical/Subtropical wind speeds at a 30yr low

2) TSI highest in 12yrs

3) A record -QBO/+ENSO tandem forced a record +HC regimen in the NPAC/NATL

 

If I'd known this would occur in advance, I might have forecasted a spike reminiscent of 1998.

[Jesse]

And yet in 2013-14 the Willamette Valley still had one of its snowiest winters in the past 40 years. Doesn't really fit with your Mediterranean/increasingly hopeless for winter weather weenies narrative.

 

Also, 2014 may have been warmest globally on GISS, but look at the year many regions of the U.S. had. Clearly, global temps don't matter a whole lot when you get a good pattern for cold in your region.

 

I never said that. I said we would continue to see bouts of winter weather despite an overall background warming trend. Seems like a pretty reasonable assessment to me.

 

As for the last few summers, it's funny you mention 2013 and 2014 because both of those were decidedly Mediterranean.

 

I'm sure we will get a lot of cold troughing at some point over the next couple years to make up for the madness of the last few. The underlying march toward a gradually warmer climate will continue regardless, though. And periods like the past year will become more and more common.

[Deweydog]

Flatiron?

Well... yeah... not so much.

[Phil]

I never said that. I said we would continue to see bouts of winter weather despite an overall background warming trend. Seems like a pretty reasonable assessment to me.

 

As for the last few summers, it's funny you mention 2013 and 2014 because both of those were decidedly Mediterranean.

 

I'm sure we will get a lot of cold troughing at some point over the next couple years to make up for the madness of the last few. The underlying march toward a gradually warmer climate will continue regardless, though. And periods like the past year will become more and more common.

I know you're smarter than this. I'll even go out of my way to order you the new CERES/ERBS radiative data if it'll bring you back to reality.

 

There's a reason global temperatures have cooled slightly since 2001, despite an increase in CO^2, an increase in TSI, a decrease in global wind speeds, and a weakening/poleward migration of the Hadley Cells..and the satellite data is very clear on this.

[Jesse]

Getting breezy here at the coast! Warm too!!!

 

I somehow missed this. Where on the coast are you?

[Deweydog]

The hyperbole gets old, so does the snark, and the tireless back and fourth over semantics, but it comes with the territory and I can live with it. I know I am not the only one with this view, a lot of people share it, I just seem to be the only one that will speak up about it.

#braveandbold!

[Deweydog]

I somehow missed this. Where on the coast are you?

Ilwaco area.

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing like a mofo at Stevens Pass. Chains required.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/us2/bigwindy/us2bigwindy.jpg?1421554792001

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/us2/stvldg/sumtwest.jpg?1421554898109

[Jesse]

Ilwaco area.

 

Niiiiiice.

 

Go check out the trail we helped build with the WTA at Leadbetter State Park if/when it dries out tomorrow!

[Deweydog]

Niiiiiice.

 

Go check out the trail we helped build with the WTA at Leadbetter State Park if/when it dries out tomorrow!

Sounds lovely but the rest of the group is making me watch some football game.