February 3rd-4th Plains Winter Storm

[jcwxguy]

Lol wow

[Sven]

4-7 with temps and wind? Dumber than a bucket of rocks.

[joecoal]

4-7 with temps and wind? Dumber than a bucket of rocks.

 

lol...sorry that it doesn't fit your wishcasting dreams

[Jack Frost]

Sven, does my opinion have some credit now? WWA with afternoon discussion! I was hoping i would be wrong as I want 10 inches!

[jcwxguy]

18z nam has 6-7 for lincoln/omaha

[Sven]

4-7 isn't wish casting. That's reality. Now, I would come up with some elaborate insult however their is no prof your literate. So I shall hold off, for now.

[Sven]

Sven, does my opinion have some credit now? WWA with afternoon discussion! I was hoping i would be wrong as I want 10 inches!

Not what I was saying. Your 4.3 is not realistic. Omaha maybe. Lincoln? Nope.

[Jack Frost]

Not what I was saying. Your 4.3 is not realistic. Omaha maybe. Lincoln?

 

We will re-look at it Wednesday. I hope I'm wrong.

[Sven]

Im not against posting opinions and predictions, I am against the defense of OAX. They just posted 2-8 inches. Uhm What? Thats not a prediction, thats a guess, which is some what educated. Don't issue that wide of a prediction that helps no one. Even 3-6 is a big spread. Final Call of 5.8 for Omaha. 

[Sven]

"Curse that Groundhog." - Nws Met...if you don't like winter weather, or snow at all, you are living in the wrong place. 

[joecoal]

Im not against posting opinions and predictions, I am against the defense of OAX. They just posted 2-8 inches. Uhm What? Thats not a prediction, thats a guess, which is some what educated. Don't issue that wide of a prediction that helps no one. Even 3-6 is a big spread. Final Call of 5.8 for Omaha. 

 

Deterministic forecasting is way less scientific than giving a range and emphasizing uncertainties.

[Sven]

And Des Moines has brains... 

 

 

INCE TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AS IT WILL HAPPEN
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE I HAVE PUT THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TO SEE IF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS PAN OUT BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND DURING THE DRIVE
HOME WARRANTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

 

[Jack Frost]

Im not against posting opinions and predictions, I am against the defense of OAX. They just posted 2-8 inches. Uhm What? Thats not a prediction, thats a guess, which is some what educated. Don't issue that wide of a prediction that helps no one. Even 3-6 is a big spread. Final Call of 5.8 for Omaha. 

 

I agree, Hastings main page had 1-7!! They are scared to put out a solid amount to what they think will happen!

[joecoal]

Everyone knows we are dealing with a sharp cutoff...why wouldn't a range like 1-7" make sense?

[Sven]

What I posted on their Facebook...shockingly it garnered no response 

 

 

Winter storm warning for the combination of wind and 4-6? Seems very fair and well inside criteria. Advisory wording impacting 2 rush hours along with blowing and drifting just doesn't seem to suffice. Wind, about 5 or 6 inches, and 25 below wind chill Wednesday morning should seem to indicate a winter storm warning will become necessary.

[Sven]

This 

 

also, DSM will not get more snow than SE Nebraska, no way. and they have a Winter Storm Warning. Just goes to show that we all have potential.

[gabel23]

I agree, Hastings main page had 1-7!! They are scared to put out a solid amount to what they think will happen!

Reason Hastings did that is b/c that covers the entire warned area. 1-2 for northwest counties, 2-4 middle counties and 6-8 for far se counties. Your talking a crazy gradient for snow fall in just my area, samething for oax, I would be happy to see 2-4 but I might be more in line for 1-2.

[Bryan1117]

"Curse that Groundhog." - Nws Met...if you don't like winter weather, or snow at all, you are living in the wrong place. 

I saw that too on the Forecast Discussion... "Curse that Groundhog," its February and its going to be cold - we need the moisture so hence we need all the snow that we can get right now. This Winter has been cold, but without a consistent snowcover it hasn't been terrible. We have gotten several breaks with 50-60 degree weather that has really helped it make not seem so bad.

 

My prediction for the major cities in this area is -

Omaha - 5.7 at Eppley, 4.9 at Valley NWS (isolated enhanced band gives nearly an extra inch of snow for southern and eastern metro area)

Lincoln - 7.2

Kansas City Int'l - 8.9

Des Moines - 5.2

 

This storm still has some good potential and I could see a couple inches more in Omaha if we get lucky... let's see what happens.

[Sven]

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020322&plotName=cref_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2

[Jaycee]

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020322&plotName=cref_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2

Rapid Refresh looking much improved from earlier, I like the setup, looks like heavy banding could set up further north. Local news stations saying anywhere for 6-10" in Lincoln, hopefully they're right. Will be an interesting night to say the least.

[gabel23]

Rapid Refresh looking much improved from earlier, I like the setup, looks like heavy banding could set up further north. Local news stations saying anywhere for 6-10" in Lincoln, hopefully they're right. Will be an interesting night to say the least.

18z gfs and nam both give me between 4-6" I would love to see that. On a side note for how dry the atmosphere is I have had virga falling all day. Radar returns very impressive and nothing to show for it. Hoping for an upward storm total for all!

[winterfreak]

Just some lingo from the NWS. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

[CalliopeJ]

I am thinking that Omaha will end up with about 5" and Lincoln will end up with a little more, maybe around 6.5"? I guess we will need to wait and see how the banding sets up. Could really go up or down, just a waiting game at this point. 

[pack402]

Is the RAP at all credible?  Latest map shows no snow from Lincoln to Omaha by 5pm tomorrow, WTF!

[Jaycee]

It's a credible source without a doubt. I feel your pain, but I think the system might just be a slow mover, so it's taking longer to get here. I wouldn't expect totals to change much. Still hoping for a stronger system with that NW trend so we can clock in on heavy amounts.

 

 

EDIT: I use the HRRR haha, not the RAP.

[East Dubzz]

The RAP is not that great of a model. For those who can find access, the HRRR is the best performing short term model this year.

[road kill weather]

Won't happen.

[Jack Frost]

Welcome to western Roadkill!! 4-6 likely

[winterfreak]

GFS is wonderful for me.

[NEJeremy]

NAM with its worst run yet for Omaha. GFS shows almost the exact same amount of QPF as well, barely having us in the .25". I'm definitely not thinking anymore than 4 to maybe 5" but we're so close to the edge I wouldn't be surprised if it stays under 3"

[joecoal]

GFS is wonderful for me.

 

yup

[joecoal]

4-7 with temps and wind? Dumber than a bucket of rocks.

 

[Jaycee]

Hoping GFS is a bust, we'd really get shafted if that happens. Really hope for 6". Models we're showing 12-14" just a day ago, and earlier today the least the GFS/NAM showed was 8" for Lincoln. I'll be pretty upset if we don't get 6"  

[Bryan1117]

Hoping GFS is a bust, we'd really get shafted if that happens. Really hope for 6". Models we're showing 12-14" just a day ago, and earlier today the least the GFS/NAM showed was 8" for Lincoln. I'll be pretty upset if we don't get 6"

Definitely expecting to be disappointed right now... that's for sure. With what I see on the GFS, take off an inch or two of accumulation from my earlier predictions - if things hold true that means 3 to 4 MAX for Omaha... and maybe 5 to 6 MAX for Lincoln, with KC getting walloped and some parts of the KC metro nearing a foot by storm end... Be happy KC guys and congrats, you will likely have 2 to 3 times the seasonal snowfall this Winter than Omaha has by this storm's end, with another decent Advisory level snow taking aim at you again this weekend potentially (grrrr!)... enjoy! If we can't muster up some decent precip in Feb/March/April - we will be talking water shortages in some parts of Eastern Nebraska, and plenty of dead cracked up yards/fields. My backyard currently has cracks all over it from the dry weather and brutal cold... just a nasty Winter scene (never seen it this bad this time of year in 33 years).

[Sven]

Radar trends and analysis crucial as opposed to models at this point...c'mon fellas you know this

[Bryan1117]

Radar trends and analysis crucial as opposed to models at this point...c'mon fellas you know this

Haven't seen much to show that this thing will surprise in any way... With dry air pushing in from the North... its going to be a major battle. Hoping to wake up tomorrow morning and at least see the ground dusted with white. I guess I am jumping off the ledge too soon so to speak, but the fact I care about an advisory level snow system is just sad - but that's what its come to. Still holding a little bit of hope for something good tomorrow - ANY kind of moisture would be good at this point. Could be worse, Norfolk, Sioux City and Storm Lake look to get completely shafted again - I think Sioux City is sitting at 5.8 inches of snow so far this Winter, with around 1-2 inches expected... ouch! Anyone that doesn't see problems potentially on the horizon isn't paying attention.

[Jaycee]

I agree. Reminds me of 2012, we got nothing all year, and literally fried during the summer. Sometimes it feels like Nebraska is turning into Arizona.

[clintbeed1993]

I definitely don't have a good feeling about this event guys.  I think it is best for us all to expect the least and then be excited if we get more than expected.  Much better feeling than having high expectations only to be crushed in the end, which seems to happen a lot around these parts.

[Grizzcoat]

HRRR and RAP showing a around 1" that still is not in the grids for DSM -- a good sign as it will allow the atmosphre to saturate quicker for the main show.

[OmahaBubble]

HRRR and RAP showing a around 1" that still is not in the grids for DSM -- a good sign as it will allow the atmosphre to saturate quicker for the main show.

Good for you.