snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 A lot of support for a much cooler pattern beginning next week. Plenty of indication that we might even see a decent cold snap before the month is over. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 A lot of support for a much cooler pattern beginning next week. Plenty of indication that we might even see a decent cold snap before the month is over.Gah!!!!! It's about time. This pattern has been just relentless. Waiting for ENSO to kind of bust, too. Any signs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 A lot of support for a much cooler pattern beginning next week. Plenty of indication that we might even see a decent cold snap before the month is over. Even a year like 2002-03 managed a cold snap in February. Got down into the 20s here on several nights in a row... lowest was 21 on 2/24/03. March and the first half of April were pretty miserable and wet in 2003 but it was just gorgeous last half of spring that year... and a spectacular summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ridiculous stat of the night: Since November 21st (83 days and basically the entire heart of Winter) BFI in Seattle has had an astounding 38 highs of 55 degrees or above. For comparison, here's how many 55+ days there were in that same November 21st-February 11th stretch in recent Winters. Absolutely blows them all out of the water! 04-05: 1405-06: 606-07: 307-08: 208-09: 409-10: 1610-11: 811-12: 6 (zero between November 28th and February 3rd)12-13: 513-14: 5 (zero between December 1st and January 31st.)14-15: 38 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ridiculous stat of the night: Since November 21st (83 days and basically the entire heart of Winter) BFI in Seattle has had an astounding 38 highs of 55 degrees or above. For comparison, here's how many 55+ days there were in that same November 21st-February 11th stretch in recent Winters. Absolutely blows them all out of the water! 04-05: 1405-06: 606-07: 307-08: 208-09: 409-10: 1610-11: 811-12: 6 (zero between November 28th and February 3rd)12-13: 513-14: 5 (zero between December 1st and January 31st.)14-15: 38 Great work. How about 2002-03 and 1991-92? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great work. How about 2002-03 and 1991-92?11 and 14 respectively. Got any other torchy Winters to check? I have a feeling this Winter might be the all-time record by a long shot. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 11 and 14 respectively. Got any other torchy Winters to check? I have a feeling this Winter might be the all-time record by a long shot. 57-58 might be interesting. I'll take a look at 1933-34, 1939-40 and 1940-41 tonight. Those three were horrendous winters. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gah!!!!! It's about time. This pattern has been just relentless. Waiting for ENSO to kind of bust, too. Any signs?Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 have already dropped a bunch and Nino 3.4 is only +0.5. The Nino was too weak this winter to blame what happened on ENSO. There were other factors at play. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 have already dropped a bunch and Nino 3.4 is only +0.5. The Nino was too weak this winter to blame what happened on ENSO. There were other factors at play. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/poama.nino34.small.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 57-58 might be interesting. I'll take a look at 1933-34, 1939-40 and 1940-41 tonight. Those three were horrendous winters.57-58 had 17, so still less than half as many as this Winter. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 57-58 had 17, so still less than half as many as this Winter.UHI when comparing to some of those older years? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ridiculous stat of the night: Since November 21st (83 days and basically the entire heart of Winter) BFI in Seattle has had an astounding 38 highs of 55 degrees or above. For comparison, here's how many 55+ days there were in that same November 21st-February 11th stretch in recent Winters. Absolutely blows them all out of the water! 04-05: 1405-06: 606-07: 307-08: 208-09: 409-10: 1610-11: 811-12: 6 (zero between November 28th and February 3rd)12-13: 513-14: 5 (zero between December 1st and January 31st.)14-15: 38 Unbelievable stat. Closest I can find is 1982-83 with 20 such days in that period. Of course, it's a bit of a "cherry-picked" stat...starting at a certain date and using a certain temp or higher. If you look at the same stat for Nov 10 to present, or change it to 53+, the results could be quite different compared to other years. Regardless, illustrates the repeated bouts of extreme torching that has occurred this winter since late November. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 This winter has been a strange one. Practically nonexistent. Went out hiking near White Salmon today and there are already flowers starting to bloom. We even saw a small butterfly. This is after warm-season plant and animal behavior already stretched well into early-November last fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hoping next week delivers my first freeze since January 2nd! Incredibly long stretch for the heart of winter. Especially considering there have been plenty of clear nights and ridgy periods. It's not like it's been a rainy SW flow fest the last 40 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Unbelievable stat. Closest I can find is 1982-83 with 20 such days in that period. Of course, it's a bit of a "cherry-picked" stat...starting at a certain date and using a certain temp or higher. If you look at the same stat for Nov 10 to present, or change it to 53+, the results could be quite different compared to other years. Regardless, illustrates the repeated bouts of extreme torching that has occurred this winter since late November. The stat says a lot IMO. Picking any random number as a cutoff is arbitrary, but we do it all the time, for cold stats and warm ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 57-58 might be interesting. I'll take a look at 1933-34, 1939-40 and 1940-41 tonight. Those three were horrendous winters. No records for Boeing Field back then. However, nearby Kent had 35 in 1940-41. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 The stat says a lot IMO. Picking any random number as a cutoff is arbitrary, but we do it all the time, for cold stats and warm ones. I agree. I think the first and last sentence of my post made that clear Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I agree. I think the first and last sentence of my post made that clear Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog. Still a good chance we won't have to worry about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog. I assume you're talking about 1940-41? Think you replied to the wrong post... On the other hand, global warming was just in its infancy in 1941. The PDO wasn't even a twinkle in UW researcher's eyes. January 1950 was almost a decade away. Whole different world. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Impressive. I have to think that all things considered that winter / season is probably the best overall match to this one. On the other hand if it gets cold later this month we will really veer away from that analog. Which one? 82-83 or 40-41? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 11 and 14 respectively. Got any other torchy Winters to check? I have a feeling this Winter might be the all-time record by a long shot.How about 1996-97? It was an absolute torch of a spring in Socal that year and I am curious if the PNW was warm as well at any point during that season or whether the warmth was limited to CA in the spring. It was actually quite wet down here from late October until the end of January with normal temperatures, and then the rainy season abruptly shut off and got really warm from March onward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 How about 1996-97? It was an absolute torch of a spring in Socal that year and I am curious if the PNW was warm as well at any point during that season or whether the warmth was limited to CA in the spring. It was actually quite wet down here from late October until the end of January with normal temperatures, and then the rainy season abruptly shut off and got really warm from March onward. That winter/spring was pretty close to normal for the PNW. Didn't really have a torchy month until May. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Which one? 82-83 or 40-41?So far, this winter in CA has been nothing like 82-83 or 40-41. Both of those seasons were extremely wet in CA without overly long dry periods, including Socal, and Los Angeles recorded over 30" of rain in each of those two seasons. This winter has had El Nino-like tendencies, but unfortunately without the rains brought on by moderate and strong Ninos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 That winter/spring was pretty close to normal for the PNW. Didn't really have a torchy month until May.It sounds as if the warmth arrived later up there, which I figured was probably the case. May 1997 was extremely warm in Socal and if I remember correctly, it was the warmest May on record for many Socal locations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hoping next week delivers my first freeze since January 2nd! Incredibly long stretch for the heart of winter. Especially considering there have been plenty of clear nights and ridgy periods. It's not like it's been a rainy SW flow fest the last 40 days. The rain gauge IMBY says you're wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Unbelievable stat. Closest I can find is 1982-83 with 20 such days in that period. Of course, it's a bit of a "cherry-picked" stat...starting at a certain date and using a certain temp or higher. If you look at the same stat for Nov 10 to present, or change it to 53+, the results could be quite different compared to other years. Regardless, illustrates the repeated bouts of extreme torching that has occurred this winter since late November.Oh it's about as cherry picked as they come. Still absolutely remarkable like you said though. 55+ is a pretty good benchmark for torching in the Winter, so having nearly half the days over such a long stretch be that warm is amazing, especially since we've had Winters with ZERO such days in all of December and January. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lows of 32 F and highs in the 50's and sunny... perfect spring days next week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Oh it's about as cherry picked as they come. Still absolutely remarkable like you said though. 55+ is a pretty good benchmark for torching in the Winter, so having nearly half the days over such a long stretch be that warm is amazing, especially since we've had Winters with ZERO such days in all of December and January. Yup. Hell, back in 2007-08, when global warming was taking a breather, there were no 55+ days from Dec 5 - Feb 20. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yup. Hell, back in 2007-08, when global warming was taking a breather, there were no 55+ days from Dec 5 - Feb 20. Legendary! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Legendary! It was quite a feat, if you consider those types of stats important. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty impressive offshore blocking on the 0z GFS. Much much better pattern coming up it appears. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty impressive offshore blocking on the 0z GFS. Much much better pattern coming up it appears. At this point, all models are indicating the blocking will be a little too far east for you guys to really score, just like the November and December events. Still, at least it's something to keep an eye on, and a better pattern than anything seen so far in 2015. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 It was quite a feat, if you consider those types of stats important. I like January 1937. Monthly high of 43 in Seattle and 44 in Portland. Quite a feat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty impressive offshore blocking on the 0z GFS. Much much better pattern coming up it appears. Exactly what we don't need right now for the mountains. Another dry, cool, sunny period. Really need a few weeks of cold, strong onshore flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Exactly what we don't need right now for the mountains. Another dry, cool, sunny period. Really need a few weeks of cold, strong onshore flow. Warm ridging would actually be worse. Just sayin'.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Warm ridging would actually be worse. Just sayin'.... There is no snow to protect with a chilly pattern. Any pattern that does not result in copious mountain snow right now is bad. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 There is no snow to protect with a chilly pattern. Any pattern that does not result in copious mountain snow right now is bad. Still 57" at Paradise and a 29" base at Baker. Pathetic, but that's snow nonetheless. Obviously we desperately need more up there however we can get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Exactly what we don't need right now for the mountains. Another dry, cool, sunny period. Really need a few weeks of cold, strong onshore flow. I was thinking the same thing. Not that excited about a repeat of what we just went through earlier in the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 At this point, all models are indicating the blocking will be a little too far east for you guys to really score, just like the November and December events. Still, at least it's something to keep an eye on, and a better pattern than anything seen so far in 2015. Not later on. The blocking becomes perfect during week two. As always it will come down to details. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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