February 2015 PNW Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Silly gumdrop! The models never showed a big cold and snow event!

 

 

What???

[Jesse]

Looking like a pretty dry few weeks coming up.

 

Changey...

[Deweydog]

Looking like a pretty dry few weeks coming up.

 

Changey...

Have you watched the news??? Live crews at Timberline where it's SNOWING!

 

Now pipe down and count your blessings.

[ShawniganLake]

1.00 at SEA since last night.

 

This is now a significantly wet month at that station.  

 

Around 5.25 inches for the month while normal is 3.50 inches.  

I thought this system was supposed to be "moisture starved"?

 

Close to 1.5" of rain here last night.

[Jesse]

Have you watched the news??? Live crews at Timberline where it's SNOWING!

 

Now pipe down and count your blessings.

 

We all make bad calls sometimes. It's ok.

[HighlandExperience]

We all make bad calls sometimes. It's ok.

 

Looks like Dallas is currently sitting at a sweet 26 degrees with heavy snow..

 

Tired of seeing all these cold anomalies east of the Rockies.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Parksvillewx]

I thought this system was supposed to be "moisture starved"?

 

Close to 1.5" of rain here last night.

 

I couldn't believe how hard it was raining here. Just under 1" of rain here between 5pm and midnight.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking like a pretty dry few weeks coming up.

 

Changey...

The change seems to be looking a lot less dramatic than it had a week or so ago.  But it sure has been a long time since we have seen a cold, wet low drop in from the north, with better than 1" rainfall totals.  It is a change. 

[ShawniganLake]

I couldn't believe how hard it was raining here. Just under 1" of rain here between 5pm and midnight.

Yea, it was ugly out there last evening.  A ton of standing water on the highway. 

[Deweydog]

We all make bad calls sometimes. It's ok.

March ain't over yet, although April is close to it.

[stuffradio]

March ain't over yet, although April is close to it.

My average last frost date is ~mid April. Vancouver's is end of March. What's yours?

[Jesse]

Looks like a pretty epic warm spell coming up on day 10 of the Euro.

 

Maybe the first 65+ of the year for some spots? At least those that didn't hit it multiple times in January and February.

[TT-SEA]

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015022712!!chart.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a pretty epic warm spell coming up on day 10 of the Euro.

 

Maybe the first 65+ of the year for some spots? At least those that didn't hit it multiple times in January and February.

If its not going to snow, we might as well go big.  Hasn't hit 60 at my location since November. 

[Phil]

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015022712!!chart.gif

#HudsonBayVortex

 

It's fully coupled with the strat PV now. Not going anywhere anytime soon. Should try to nudge poleward in response to seasonal forcings.

[Jesse]

If its not going to snow, we might as well go big.  Hasn't hit 60 at my location since November. 

 

Been a long frigid winter, no doubt.

[ShawniganLake]

#HudsonBayVortex #NAO

 

Vortex is fully coupled with the strat PV now. Not going anywhere anytime soon.

I am assuming this means spring in the west, winter in the east?

 

Any thoughts on what this summer will look like?

[Deweydog]

My average last frost date is ~mid April. Vancouver's is end of March. What's yours?

Later in April probably. It's not terribly unusual for it to happen in May though.

[Jesse]

I am assuming this means spring in the west, winter in the east?

 

Any thoughts on what this summer will look like?

Hot out west.

[Deweydog]

Hot out west.

September?????

[Phil]

I am assuming this means spring in the west, winter in the east?

 

Any thoughts on what this summer will look like?

Kind of..ridging/onshore flow in the West, gradient pattern in the East during March/April? Summer will depend on the timing of the final stratwarm/subsequent wavenumber, but I'm leaning towards a hot summer for most of the U.S.

 

That's not set in stone, though.

[Jesse]

September?????

 

Super duper warm. Duh.

[Deweydog]

Super duper warm. Duh.

Follower...

[Jesse]

Follower...

 

We're due!

[stuffradio]

Will we finally have a dry October/November? We're due.

[bainbridgekid]

1.00 at SEA since last night.

 

This is now a significantly wet month at that station.  

 

Around 5.25 inches for the month while normal is 3.50 inches.  

Huge over-performance.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/ww_pcp24.24.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

First time there's been snow on the ground up at Hurricane Ridge in a long, long time!

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-olym/current_ridgecam.jpg?2015127114632

[TT-SEA]

Huge over-performance.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/ww_pcp24.24.0000.gif

 

 

The ULL just shifted a little east of what was expected.

[ShawniganLake]

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015022712!!chart.gif

If this verifies and people head out to the Washington coast beaches.....better beware of the Great White shark.  18 footer apparently.

 

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/great-white-shark-stalking-waters-off-washington-state-1.2255382

[Jesse]

Pretty solid ensemble support for that ridging around day 10.

[Jesse]

55/47 at PDX so far today.

 

Should bump up the monthly average a bit more.

[GHweatherChris]

 

Pretty solid ensemble support for that ridging around day 10.

 

?

[ShawniganLake]

?

He's just trying to crank up his post count.

[GHweatherChris]

He's just trying to crank up his post count.

Yea, will look good on a resume I guess.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty solid ensemble support for that ridging around day 10.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2015022712_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

[Jesse]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2015022712_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

 

Finally, some ridging!

 

Change!!

[richard mann]

Pretty solid ensemble support for that ridging around day 10.

 

.. Come on man. At this point, if whatever doesn't show (some kind of) rain, snow or cold, keep it inside 7 days at least.

 

This is directed to you too "Timbo". 

[richard mann]

Near to 5 ins. at the base of Mt. Bachelor overnight and to this point. 

 

http://www.mtbachelor.com/site/plan/info/winterconditions

[richard mann]

-
The idea of yet more ridging focused on above 5-"10" days out notwithstanding.

Today's main fuller-framed VIS image, main Goes-E.

Somewhat indicative of an if more gradual evolution in and where looking at broader patterning.

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-12-1800.jpg

— Time remaining, basic sun-angle, for whatever potential more rain / snow, being the main question of course.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good lord. Bartlesville Oklahoma pulled off a 20/10 day today with a couple inches of snow.