Maxim Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 no potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 The GFS has been overestimating the cold for the past 2 weeks. Pretty laughable to buy into anything it's showing at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Hoping we get some moisture in Nebraska soon. Places west of me are way worse off and the drought is creeping back in. I am an avid morel mushroom hunter and we really need a good soaking rain to get the season started! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 NYC braces for yet another snowstorm for Friday with accumulating snows becoming more likely now. Looking like 4-7inches could be possible. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Still snowing pretty well there. New England near 100% covered in snow still. The longer it lasts, the higher the flood potential. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northeast/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015031705_Northeast.jpg Barely cracking 40° today here.They have brutal winters up there. Luckily, we live in a milder climate. Flooding there will definitely be an issue this upcoming Spring. Hopefully, it does not all melt at once. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Massive warming at 10mb over the pole thru the next 10 days. Should have implications as we close out March and open April. The cold part of the LRC isn't too far away. I think the models will pick up on the this. CVSv2 showing the cooling beginning next week into the following. JMA Weeklies come out later tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Massive warming at 10mb over the pole thru the next 10 days. Should have implications as we close out March and open April. The cold part of the LRC isn't too far away. I think the models will pick up on the this. CVSv2 showing the cooling beginning next week into the following. JMA Weeklies come out later tonight... You're the only one who's going to enjoy it I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 You're the only one who's going to enjoy it I think.Make that two. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Make that two. You're not going to be getting the snow you want though, I think it will pass just to your north and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 You're not going to be getting the snow you want though, I think it will pass just to your north and east.Yep and its a sliver of a stripe anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 If one keeps saying its gonna get cold eventually they have to verify. If it werent for the first couple days of march we would be a complete torch so far. Either way the set up has been as expected much cooler the further east you go. There is going to be a cool down thats for sure but record breaking as was proclaimed? I have my doubts. The cold and snowy is most likely going down in flames though someplace will score a 50 mile wide swath of snow in a few days. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 The warmth has been more impressive this year than the cold. 90 degrees in Nebraska and Iowa in mid March? D**n... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 The warmth has been more impressive this year than the cold. 90 degrees in Nebraska and Iowa in mid March? D**n... Actually they have been equally impressive this year and the cold to this point has been longer lasting (all of February). That said, the Plains have seen more impressive warmth than impressive cold, and obviously they need rain. Looks like most of our subforum has a chance to see some next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Actually they have been equally impressive this year and the cold to this point has been longer lasting (all of February). That said, the Plains have seen more impressive warmth than impressive cold, and obviously they need rain. Looks like most of our subforum has a chance to see some next week.Ya the cold overall has definetly been more impressive overall. Especially the further east you go. The lack of snow to go with the cold has probably been the most impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 You're the only one who's going to enjoy it I think.Rain or shine, snow or cold...I enjoy all aspects of the weather and what nature can bring. You can't control it (unless your the gov't), embrace it, enjoy what it delivers in any given time of the year. FWIW, I posted comments about the warm phase the LRC would bring this month and the cold. The warm phase was extremely warm the farther west you went and I commented how the Euro Ensembles saw the "pull back" from Winter between the 10th-20th near the Lakes. Forecasting the weather is not a exact science so being 100% accurate ain't gonna happen. The cold phase will come back and I'd be shocked if it doesn't bring some significant cooling for the time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Another example how the models have been overdoing the cold in the long range. The EURO had -20 and lower 850's in michigan for today. In reality it was way off. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015031912/namconus_T850_us_3.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 JMA Weeklies came in and they have backed off of the significantly colder look from last weeks run near the Lakes but still below normal for Day 1-9. The pattern looks similar Week #2 and Week's 3 & 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 12z Euro paints a 6-8" band from MSP to LaCrosse for Sun/Mon system...1-3" for WI/N IL. Pretty potent little wave showing up. Edit: Mainly falls overnight Sunday so accumulations would be likely mainly on grassy surfaces after all the warmth. Maybe 3-5" is a good idea within the heaviest part of the band. 12z GGEM also pretty similar to the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 NYC braces for yet another snowstorm for Friday with accumulating snows becoming more likely now. Looking like 4-7inches could be possible.Saw this pic near Halifax...just amazing amounts of snow up that way... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 CPC Outlook for April:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif 3 Month Outlook for Apr/May/Jun... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp_small.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Woah, 12z Euro Ensembles carve out a monster trough near the Lakes/East Week 2. Fits with the LRC/CFSv2.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Saw this pic near Halifax...just amazing amounts of snow up that way... Incredible! The snowpack is so deep. That must be at least 6ft or so. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 The cold phase of the LRC is really starting to show up on the models as March closes out. A little later than I had expected it to hit. Nonetheless, it's coming. The latest Euro Weeklies tonight agree as well. The Euro Control is outrageously cold Marc 31st - April 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 NOAA has a warm Summer in the forecast for much of the nation...the bread basket of the nation may be near neutral where more moisture should be available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Does LRC claim to predict when storms are to hit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Does LRC claim to predict when storms are to hit?It provides a general idea of a storm track in the Fall/Winter months but then there are seasonal variations that you have to try and figure out as you head deeper into Spring/Summer as the jet weakens and lifts north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 The LRC seems useless in the Summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 The LRC seems useless in the Summer.Not necessarily, it can give you a general idea of when a sharp cold front can spark severe weather, long wave trough's/ridges, heat waves in the Summer, so it is quite useful if you want to use the LRC and predict future weather patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032012/gem_asnow_us_40.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 what a huge bust in temps today. was supposed to be close to 60, struggling to reach 50 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 There are going to be a lot of unhappy people hoping for warmth over the next 2 weeks....Winter's last stance on the way. 12z Euro Ensemble 5 day means below... CPC Agrees.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 And models have started to modify mid long range cold. What a surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 And models have started to modify mid long range cold. What a surprise.I'm in total disbelief color me shocked 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 12z Euro keeps the real chill near the Lakes early next week and towards next Fri/Sat. It delivers a cold HP on Friday where temps don't break 30F for parts of WI/MI/N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 Aside from about 24 hours the temperature departures at 850 are nothing special at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 WWA's posted for MSP/LaCrosse... Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI333 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015...WINTER RETURNS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT....AN EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPIRIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLYFALL AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVERTO ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOWAMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH OFTHIS HEAVIEST BAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRALWISCONSIN...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCHOF NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. PERIODS OF LIGHTFREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WESTOF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT ITS OCCURRENCE IS LESS CERTAIN.TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TOWINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.IAZ010-011-MNZ096-WIZ041-053>055-061-220445-/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0011.150322T2000Z-150323T1200Z/WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...LA CROSSE...VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE333 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAYTO 7 AM CDT MONDAY.* EXPECT RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOONAND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. MOSTPRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.AS THE SNOW ENDS...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM SUNDAY AND1 AM MONDAY.* LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IFFREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS...A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLINGFROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 And models have started to modify mid long range cold. What a surprise.Back and forth, but the cold will win for the last time before we see Spring come back in mid April. Euro Ensembles still in agreement. The cold and warm cycles of the LRC have been both extreme in their own ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 How about this? Would even take the moisture as rain at this point. I don't even get excited anymore, just nice to look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 That a generous amount of snow to fall in the next 16 days! Today was not mild like the forecast said. NE winds locked in early today here. Hovered around 40° for most of the day - was sunny though after 11am. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 That a generous amount of snow to fall in the next 16 days! Today was not mild like the forecast said. NE winds locked in early today here. Hovered around 40° for most of the day - was sunny though after 11am.too bad it won't verify though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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