February 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Thought I'd share this with you guys.

 

I spoke to a met who I know personally at NWS KSEA just a bit ago and hey are thinking of "possibly" holding a staff meeting to discuss Sunday's storm. He indicated to me that early impressions are that Sundays storm progression and maturity could equal or rival 2006's Hanukkah eve windstorm.

 

They will be sending up an extra radiosonde tomorrow and Saturday to gauge the strength of the jet as well as pressure differences below 4K feet to see if the models are handling the pattern correctly.

 

One thing he DID say was that the Wa coast looks to be in direct line for a HIGH damaging wind event Sunday!

 

 

You have done this before... and it was for nothing.   I think your friend might be a bit over-zealous.  

 

MM5 shows a normal wind event:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wssfc.72.0000.gif

 

 

The new 00Z ECMWF has almost nothing at all... a normal frontal passage for Sunday afternoon and evening.    Surface low goes north of Vancouver Island.  

[brody]

You have done this before... and it was nothing.   

 

MM5 shows a normal wind event:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wssfc.72.0000.gif

 

 

The new 00Z ECMWF has almost nothing at all... a normal frontal passage for Sunday afternoon and evening.    Surface low goes north of Vancouver Island.  

Alright

 

Shouldn't you be more concerned with Hawaii anyway?

[TT-SEA]

Alright

 

Shouldn't you be more concerned with Hawaii anyway?

 

 

Just saying... it looks pretty standard.    Windy for sure... but we have seen that several times this week already.

 

Speaking of Hawaii... I am glad we are going to the Big Island.     A Kona Low is going to be parked over the western islands early next week.   

[Skagit Weather]

I don't like the looks of the 0z for snow in Puget sound. Looking dryer and dryer as the colder air gets here.

I agree. I know that often cold air equals relative dryness for the lowlands, but I don't know how many more snow-less arctic blasts I can survive up here. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue, but every run has been steadily decreasing the precipitation.

[Weather101]

I agree. I know that often cold air equals relative dryness for the lowlands, but I don't know how many more snow-less arctic blasts I can survive up here. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue, but every run has been steadily decreasing the precipitation.

I think this time we will all see snow whether it's from the start or the middle or the end with a overrunning event I'm

Not too worried at all. Models showed preciep this morning and that can easily come back in future model runs this far away!!! So I think where ok. I'll trend better , if not I'll be cold and sunny with snow at the end.

[BLI snowman]

Just saying... it looks pretty standard.    Windy for sure... but we have seen that several times this week already.

 

Speaking of Hawaii... I am glad we are going to the Big Island.     A Kona Low is going to be parked over the western islands early next week.   

 

 

I agree. Breezy on Sunday. Nothing special. December 14, 2006 was a way different track, and more intense to boot.

[Weather101]

Thought I'd share this with you guys.

 

I spoke to a met who I know personally at NWS KSEA just a bit ago and hey are thinking of "possibly" holding a staff meeting to discuss Sunday's storm. He indicated to me that early impressions are that Sundays storm progression and maturity could equal or rival 2006's Hanukkah eve windstorm.

 

They will be sending up an extra radiosonde tomorrow and Saturday to gauge the strength of the jet as well as pressure differences below 4K feet to see if the models are handling the pattern correctly.

 

One thing he DID say was that the Wa coast looks to be in direct line for a HIGH damaging wind event Sunday!

Thanks for sharing this! Good to think Sunday could be big!

[Skagit Weather]

Thought I'd share this with you guys.

 

I spoke to a met who I know personally at NWS KSEA just a bit ago and hey are thinking of "possibly" holding a staff meeting to discuss Sunday's storm. He indicated to me that early impressions are that Sundays storm progression and maturity could equal or rival 2006's Hanukkah eve windstorm.

 

They will be sending up an extra radiosonde tomorrow and Saturday to gauge the strength of the jet as well as pressure differences below 4K feet to see if the models are handling the pattern correctly.

 

One thing he DID say was that the Wa coast looks to be in direct line for a HIGH damaging wind event Sunday!

That would be amazing! I know many on here do not like the big windstorms, but we are way overdue and I haven't really had a chance to enjoy a strong wind event since about 2007. My weather station which has been up since January 2008 has still not recorded a gust over 40 mph. That is partly because it is not at standard height and its positioning is not great, but it would be nice to increase max gust a little. The utilities also seem to do an excellent job at clearing power lines up here because we haven't lost power since the 2006 windstorm where the gusts up to 80mph nearby snapped two power poles in half.

[brody]

I agree. Breezy on Sunday. Nothing special. December 14, 2006 was a way different track, and more intense to boot.

JUST the messenger

 

If some of you remember back to 06 it was the EURO that was showing a run of the mill wind event and then 1 day out it had a huge LOW bombing out.

 

Don't discount anything prematurely, mother nature will do as she pleases.

[Skagit Weather]

00z Euro does not look as cold as the 12z and gives us a pretty quick glancing blow, but it does have 850mb temps below -8C by hour 180 with precipitation.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro does not look as cold as the 12z and gives us a pretty quick glancing blow, but it does have 850mb temps below -8C by hour 180 with precipitation.

00z EURO looks very similar to the GEM. Chilly trough, then the ridge builds and moves right over us. As far as the Wind Storm potenial coming up. Don't completely discount this just yet. Jet is well suppressed to the south. There is a ton of energy and cold air with that system plus a 180-200mph jet fueling it.

[Gradient Keeper]

 6z NAM 500mb trough axis is looking better and better now.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/06/nam_namer_039_500_vort_ht_l.gif

[TT-SEA]

JUST the messenger

 

If some of you remember back to 06 it was the EURO that was showing a run of the mill wind event and then 1 day out it had a huge LOW bombing out.

 

Don't discount anything prematurely, mother nature will do as she pleases.

 

 

The 12Z GFS now shows that the ECMWF has been showing... and we are only 48-54 hours out.

 

There is not even the hint of a windstorm.     Just a wet frontal system with a low heading north of Vancouver Island:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_063_precip_p03.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 6z NAM 500mb trough axis is looking better and better now.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/06/nam_namer_039_500_vort_ht_l.gif

 

486 500mb heights in the GOA. Geezzzz....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No complaints from the coast range either.  I still have snow on the ground, although it took a beating after all that rain last night.

 

I am actually still way below average with snow. Only 9.75" of snow on the season at 1600' is pretty meager. However, I should make some of that up next week, and the two cold snaps have been pretty impressive.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

You have done this before... and it was for nothing.   I think your friend might be a bit over-zealous.  

 

MM5 shows a normal wind event:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wssfc.72.0000.gif

 

 

The new 00Z ECMWF has almost nothing at all... a normal frontal passage for Sunday afternoon and evening.    Surface low goes north of Vancouver Island.  

Kind of a mean reply.  Just provided information he asserted he had available.  You know sometimes things don't work out.

[Weather101]

 

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC STORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION

THIS WEEKEND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE

MOUNTAINS AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE

COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WAS ON THE COAST AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE EAST

OF THE CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SO FAR...WINDS ACROSS THE

NORTH INTERIOR HAVE BEEN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL WAIT

ANOTHER OR TWO HOURS BEFORE I DECIDE TO END THE ADVISORY OVER THIS

AREA. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA

TODAY. THE AIR MASS MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH OVER THE NORTH COAST FOR

A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS TODAY BUT THE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE

AFTERNOON. THE CASCADES ABOVE 4K FT COULD RECEIVE 5-10 INCHES OF

SNOW DURING THE DAY...THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN

POSTED.

 

LOOK FOR ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON

SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL /12 TO 18

INCHES/ IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS OVER THE COAST AND

NORTHWEST INTERIOR. ELSEWHERE...SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY

CRITERIA. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD OF LOCALLY

HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FEET RANGE LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OF

THE HIGHER LOWLAND HILLS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF WET SNOW.

 

THE NEXT POTENT STORM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP TO

THE CWA AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF THE

AREA ON SUNDAY.

 

.LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARED GENERALLY COLD AND UNSETTLED. TEMPS ARE

ANTICIPATED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL

FOR LOWLAND SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[TT-SEA]

All the models show the low curving well north of Vancouver Island on Sunday.   Even the reliable ECMWF.

[Guest Monty67]

All the models show the low curving well north of Vancouver Island on Sunday.   Even the reliable ECMWF.

The Canadian has a 973 low into central/Northern Vancouver Island. It develops quickly and relatively close to the coast on Saturday. I would assume the closer to the coast it gets before intensifying would favor a further south track. It would seem as though a decent windstorm for someone is still on the table, although likely more Seattle north.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The Canadian has a 973 low into central/Northern Vancouver Island. It develops quickly and relatively close to the coast on Saturday. I would assume the closer to the coast it gets before intensifying would favor a further south track. It would seem as though a decent windstorm for someone is still on the table, although likely more Seattle north.

 

Yeah, the last several runs of the GFS have shown the same thing on Saturday. We should be talking about that instead of the weaker and further north Sunday system.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, the last several runs of the GFS have shown the same thing on Saturday. We should be talking about that instead of the weaker and further north Sunday system.

 

The new 12Z ECMWF is way north with no tight gradient on Sunday.    I am just not seeing how this is different than the other systems this week.    

 

http://s29.postimg.org/8qdfsmz2v/Untitled.jpg

[Weather101]

The new 12Z ECMWF is way north with no tight gradient on Sunday. I am just not seeing how this is different than the other systems this week.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/8qdfsmz2v/Untitled.jpg

He said Saturday....

[Weather101]

The Canadian has a 973 low into central/Northern Vancouver Island. It develops quickly and relatively close to the coast on Saturday. I would assume the closer to the coast it gets before intensifying would favor a further south track. It would seem as though a decent windstorm for someone is still on the table, although likely more Seattle north.

True. EC has 50-70km/h so far in there forecast.

[TT-SEA]

He said Saturday....

 

Good point.   Sorry about that.

[Guest Monty67]

Good point.   Sorry about that.

The euro has the low going into central Vancouver island Saturday night as well, however it is weaker than what the Canadian showed, not a major windstorm with that.

[Jesse]

PDX is sure erasing its negative departures pretty fast. Mid-50s every single day...

[Gradient Keeper]

IF we're to see a Wind Event on Saturday that all depends how far south the southern lobe develops south of the parent low. The 500mb trough axis is somewhat favorable for this.

[MossMan]

I feel like wind is just as hard to predict as snow around here. Some of my greatest windstorms for my area were under predicted. Especially west wind events for my location. As with the snow last week, models can be slightly off with WAY different outcomes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX is sure erasing its negative departures pretty fast. Mid-50s every single day...

 

Oh well...The cold snap was historic on a couple of levels...At this point whatever happens the rest of the month can't erase that great week of winter weather from our hearts and minds.

[TT-SEA]

Oh well...The cold snap was historic on a couple of levels...At this point whatever happens the rest of the month can't erase that great week of winter weather from our hearts and minds.

Exactly. Who cares about silly stats when you have memories of an epic event down there??

[MossMan]

Wow, I just watched a video about the 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania. I have a feeling many people back east would wish anything to shift their cold and snow over to the west coast. What a winter they have had.

 

Feels like a early spring day with 52 degrees and sunbreaks. Quite breezy as well, love days like this!

[TT-SEA]

Wow, I just watched a video about the 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania. I have a feeling many people back east would wish anything to shift their cold and snow over to the west coast. What a winter they have had.

 

Feels like a early spring day with 52 degrees and sunbreaks. Quite breezy as well, love days like this!

 

 

Me too.

 

Its been a pretty nice week considering all the systems that have rolled through here.   

[Jesse]

Oh well...The cold snap was historic on a couple of levels...At this point whatever happens the rest of the month can't erase that great week of winter weather from our hearts and minds.

Of course. It would be nice to score a top 5 cold February, though. Still is possible, but the cold pattern next week is starting to look fairly short lived.

[Jesse]

Wow, I just watched a video about the 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania. I have a feeling many people back east would wish anything to shift their cold and snow over to the west coast. What a winter they have had.

 

Feels like a early spring day with 52 degrees and sunbreaks. Quite breezy as well, love days like this!

The cold and snow just visited the west coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

High Wind Watch - Bellingham

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=high%20wind%20watch

[Bryant]

The cold and snow just visited the west coast.

 

I wouldn't say all of the West Coast. You and those down south were lucky, especially compared to many of us.

[Weather101]

We could see 60mph winds here tmrw in our wind warning . Will be interesting.

[HighlandExperience]

The cold and snow just visited the west coast.

 

It only visited those south of Centralia. Pretty lame winter up here. 

[GHweatherChris]

18z is colder next week.

 

Just have to get through these average storms due to roll through.

[Bryant]

It only visited those south of Centralia. Pretty lame winter up here. 

 

A few members on here seem to believe that what happens in their backyard should affect the rest of us.