February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm starting to get a good feeling about this weekend/Monday. I think it's going to trend in our favor. Seattle-north and the Gorge could see a decent snow event.

How much snow is on the ground still at home?

[Jesse]

How much snow is on the ground still at home?

Just piles left at this point. The surrounding mountains are covered with a nice fresh coat, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These afternoon showers are probably producing nice grapuel accumulations at my home. lol

[Poulsbo Snowman]

These afternoon showers are probably producing nice grapuel accumulations at my home. lol

Nothing like throwing an airy grapuel-ball.

[Phil]

The Arctic (and Antarctic for that matter) sea ice hasn't been doing too well this winter, falling below the 2007 water mark at times. I am hoping that we see a nice rebound, so I dont have to put of with coworkers quoting Gore.

Actually the Arctic ice pack is in great shape as we've seen very little in the way of Fram export since November. However this circulation has led to a lot of compaction in the Beaufort/Canadian/AK zone, and warm air/water influx from the NATL into the Arctic.

 

So it's anyone's guess what will go down this summer. If we see another +DA circulation dominate like we saw in 2013, we'll be in very good shape for a big recovery over the next several years. The key is keeping the old, multi-year ice in the Arctic and away from the Fram Strait. That old, thick ice is what stabilizes the icepack, preventing storms from tearing it up. The old ice also has a higher albedo and reduced saltwater component, so it is significantly harder to melt.

[Phil]

Last I heard an El Niño was looking less likely.

According to who, exactly? I've been pounding the Niño drum for next winter since last May.

[Jesse]

Surprised there isn't more talk about the 18Z GFS. Tons of potential on this run.

 

Gives me a high in the 20s and snow Monday, at face value.

 

Upper level temps aren't super cold but the flow is offshore on this run (with a very cold airmass over NE Washington) from tomorrow night through well into next week.

[GHweatherChris]

Surprised there isn't more talk about the 18Z GFS. Tons of potential on this run.

 

Gives me a high in the 20s and snow Monday, at face value.

 

Upper level temps aren't super cold but the flow is offshore on this run (with a very cold airmass over NE Washington) from tomorrow night through well into next week.

I saw it, looks potentially good at times.

 

I am just bummed the 12z WRF removed all the snow it showed here.

[Jesse]

42/37 out here today. Currently 39 with moderate rain.

 

Took a drive up the Wind River Highway after work. There is still a ton of snow once you get above about 800'. Was going to try to get to Old Man Pass but the snow got too deep and it appears the plow hasn't been through in a while.

[GHweatherChris]

42/37 out here today. Currently 39 with moderate rain.

 

Took a drive up the Wind River Highway after work. There is still a ton of snow once you get above about 800'. Was going to try to get to Old Man Pass but the snow got too deep and it appears the plow hasn't been through in a while.

I am wondering if there is a chance that some areas see at least some rain/snow mix initially with this next front approaching the coast.  40 here right now, doubt I would but maybe Shelton or Hood Canal areas.

[Jesse]

I am wondering if there is a chance that some areas see at least some rain/snow mix initially with this next front approaching the coast.  40 here right now, doubt I would but maybe Shelton or Hood Canal areas.

 

I wouldn't rule it out. Currently 38 with rain here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 with rain here

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am wondering if there is a chance that some areas see at least some rain/snow mix initially with this next front approaching the coast.  40 here right now, doubt I would but maybe Shelton or Hood Canal areas.

I am thinking yes. It is going to be close in some spots.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking at a couple of observations I use on the east side of the Olympics it looks like the freezing level is 2000ft so it is possible for some snow in the hood canal area it looks like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Kevin Martin's website got taken out by Don Joseph.

[Jesse]

00Z NAM is chilly, -10c 850s to PDX by 12Z Saturday.

 

How incredible would that be if the models trended toward a significant shot of arctic air this weekend, at the last minute?

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like Kevin Martin's website got taken out by Don Joseph.

 

Who is Don Joseph? Sounds like a mob boss. 

[brody]

00Z NAM is chilly, -10c 850s to PDX by 12Z Saturday.

 

How incredible would that be if the models trended toward a significant shot of arctic air this weekend, at the last minute?

It has happened before

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Who is Don Joseph? Sounds like a mob boss. 

 

You don't really want to know...

[Dan the Weatherman]

Actually the Arctic ice pack is in great shape as we've seen very little in the way of Fram export since November. However this circulation has led to a lot of compaction in the Beaufort/Canadian/AK zone, and warm air/water influx from the NATL into the Arctic.

 

So it's anyone's guess what will go down this summer. If we see another +DA circulation dominate like we saw in 2013, we'll be in very good shape for a big recovery over the next several years. The key is keeping the old, multi-year ice in the Arctic and away from the Fram Strait. That old, thick ice is what stabilizes the icepack, preventing storms from tearing it up. The old ice also has a higher albedo and reduced saltwater component, so it is significantly harder to melt.

 

Did you mean -DA? I thought the +DA circulation was the circulation pattern that pushed the ice toward and out the Fram Strait, which was the dominant circulation for much of the decade before last year. Or, am I getting mixed up between the two modes?

[GHweatherChris]

You don't really want to know...

Yes we do.

 

KM needs to meet a sad demise.

 

So, who is Don Joseph?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Okay, but I warned you...

 

https://www.facebook.com/don.josephiv?fref=ts&ref=br_tf

[bainbridgekid]

00z looks pretty snowy for most of Western Washington through hour 87.

 

Edit: Arctic front with plenty of moisture stalls over the Central Sound Saturday night into Sunday. Looks a lot like a further North version of what Western Oregon just got a few weeks ago on this run.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140220/00/gfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick_s.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Okay, but I warned you...

 

https://www.facebook.com/don.josephiv?fref=ts&ref=br_tf

Wow, I kinda like him.

 

HEHEHE

[GHweatherChris]

00z looks pretty snowy for most of Western Washington through hour 87.

 

Edit: Arctic front with plenty of moisture stalls over the Central Sound Saturday night into Sunday Looks like a further North version of what Western Oregon just got a few weeks ago on this run.

This does not sound like fun for here.

 

My backyard is more important than those locations. LOL

[snow_wizard]

Really nice run for snow in the Puget Sound region. Surface pressure gradients have more of a northerly component on this run compared to previous ones (which were more easterly) which is great news for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Looks like 1000-850 thickness stays below 1300 into Sunday evening on this run. Actually colder than last nights run.

[brody]

This does not sound like fun for here.

 

My backyard is more important than those locations. LOL

Thems figtin' werds 

[HighlandExperience]

Really nice run for snow in the Puget Sound region. Surface pressure gradients have more of a northerly component on this run compared to previous ones (which were more easterly) which is great news for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Looks like 1000-850 thickness stays below 1300 into Sunday evening on this run. Actually colder than last nights run.

 

This is redemption! 

[snow_wizard]

This is redemption!

The fact that we find ourselves with a little bit better run tonight than last night is pretty encouraging. That is especially true given the fact every cold wave this winter has verified colder than the models showed 3 or more days out.

[brody]

The fact that we find ourselves with a little bit better run tonight than last night is pretty encouraging. That is especially true given the fact every cold wave this winter has verified colder than the models showed 3 or more days out.

True,especially with the December cold wave which was shown what, 8+days out?

[snow_wizard]

The WRF strongly hints at snow Friday morning for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Winds shift from SW to N with 925mb temps below freezing. Good chance there. By late Friday night 925mb temps drop to -5 over Seattle. Not too shabby.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The WRF strongly hints at snow Friday morning for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Winds shift from SW to N with 925mb temps below freezing. Good chance there. By late Friday night 925mb temps drop to -5 over Seattle. Not too shabby.

Do you want it to snow at your house?

[seattleweatherguy]

Do you want it to snow at your house?

I sure do.

[brody]

Do you want it to snow at your house?

Did I see a post from you a few days ago about being in republic with your wife? 

 

Do you have a house up there and if so what elevation?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Did I see a post from you a few days ago about being in republic with your wife? 

 

Do you have a house up there and if so what elevation?

We have 23 acres 15 miles nw of republic. Elevation 3600ft. No house there yet.

[brody]

We have 23 acres 15 miles nw of republic. Elevation 3600ft. No house there yet.

Wow, can I come out there and snowmobile sometime? 

 

With your permission of course.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have 23 acres 15 miles nw of republic. Elevation 3600ft. No house there yet.

 

That is awesome!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow, can I come out there and snowmobile sometime? 

 

With your permission of course.

That area is only good for road riding from what I have seen so far. I mostly ride back country and from what I have seen this winter the snow is not deep enuff. But yeah I wouldn't mind.

[HighlandExperience]

WRF out to hour 84 not as nice for central sound. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is awesome!

I wanted to find a area in the mountains that I could access all year and have snow but not to much. What is nice about that part of the state is it's a very dry and cold climate in the winter.