February 2014 in the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

I wanted to find a area in the mountains that I could access all year and have snow but not to much. What is nice about that part of the state is it's a very dry and cold climate in the winter.

 

You ever been to the Paysaten Wilderness? Pretty awesome area near there. 

 

It is one of the largest areas of "tundra" in the State of WA. 

[brody]

That area is only good for road riding from what I have seen so far. I mostly ride back country and from what I have seen this winter the snow is not deep enuff. But yeah I wouldn't mind.

Ok, snowshoeing then

[brody]

You ever been to the Paysaten Wilderness? Pretty awesome area near there. 

 

It is one of the largest areas of "tundra" in the State of WA. 

I have, that area is hands down A-W-E-S-O-M-E

[snow_wizard]

I'm not buying the lack of moisture the WRF shows for the central Puget Sound Saturday night and Sunday. Makes no sense given the way the surface low tracks down the coast. There would be no shadowing from the Olympics (at least not too extensive). I think it's overdoing the down sloping effect of easterly winds. From my experience such down sloping isn't that big of an issue unless a low is coming up from the south. I like our chances assuming the operational GFS isn't out to lunch.

[HighlandExperience]

I have, that area is hands down A-W-E-S-O-M-E

 

Yup it has one the largest areas of tundra in the lower 48. Pretty amazing place sitting between 6K and 8K with no trees.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm not buying the lack of moisture the WRF shows for the central Puget Sound Saturday night and Sunday. Makes no sense given the way the surface low tracks down the coast. There would be no shadowing from the Olympics (at least not too extensive). I think it's overdoing the down sloping effect of easterly winds. From my experience such down sloping isn't that big of an issue unless a low is coming up from the south. I like our chances assuming the operational GFS isn't out to lunch.

 

Ya I hope you are right. I notice the WRF runs have been wildly different run to run. This mornings run was easily showing 8 + inches over NW WA and SW BC. 

[bainbridgekid]

WRF out to hour 84 not as nice for central sound. 

Definitely centers the moisture a little further North than the Operational but the overall pattern is still great and ripe with potential.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow24.96.0000.gif

 

The exact location that the arctic front stalls out is probably going to bounce around a lot over the next few days. Still potential for it to stall anywhere between Southern BC and Northern Oregon.

[epiceast]

Ya I hope you are right. I notice the WRF runs have been wildly different run to run. This mornings run was easily showing 8 + inches over NW WA and SW BC. 

This new run is pretty similar. 

[TT-SEA]

Just very thankful to be missing this week at home.  

 

[brody]

Yup it has one the largest areas of tundra in the lower 48. Pretty amazing place sitting between 6K and 8K with no trees.

The WRF so far this season has been a crap shoot as well as the HRRR

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian continues to be much warmer than the GFS. I'm betting the GFS will verify pretty close for coldness. Moisture is a huge question mark still.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You ever been to the Paysaten Wilderness? Pretty awesome area near there. 

 

It is one of the largest areas of "tundra" in the State of WA. 

Yes it is a awesome area for sure.

[TT-SEA]

I am betting that the WRF is way overestimating precip in this pattern.     Bank on the ECMWF.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm not buying the lack of moisture the WRF shows for the central Puget Sound Saturday night and Sunday. Makes no sense given the way the surface low tracks down the coast. There would be no shadowing from the Olympics (at least not too extensive). I think it's overdoing the down sloping effect of easterly winds. From my experience such down sloping isn't that big of an issue unless a low is coming up from the south. I like our chances assuming the operational GFS isn't out to lunch.

Doesn't look to me like the dryness for your area on the WRF is shadow related. The sharp cutoff of moisture extends all the way out over the ocean.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_pcp24.96.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Would be crazy to see forks get 10 inches of snow.

[HighlandExperience]

Just very thankful to be missing this week at home.  

 

 

 

Looks like the Westin at Maui?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the Westin at Maui?

 

 

Hilton Waikoloa. 

 

We are staying at the Hilton Grand Vacations across the road.   Its about 20 miles north of Kona.  

 

I have pulled up the radar from SEA quite a few times on my phone... its been raining forever at our house.    A cold, miserable rain.   I would stay down here until mid-April if I could.  

[MossMan]

Just very thankful to be missing this week at home.  

 

Nice! What island are you on?

 

Did my weekly road trip to E. Wash for work and it was quite miserable driving over the pass early this morning but at least it was open! Was very nice however to see how much snow has fallen in a week on Snoqualmie! No water worries now this summer which is good news!

[MossMan]

Doesn't look to me like the dryness for your area on the WRF is shadow related. The sharp cutoff of moisture extends all the way out over the ocean.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_pcp24.96.0000.gif

I very much like the looks of this map for my location, lets hope it comes close to verifying!

[TT-SEA]

Nice! What island are you on?

 

Did my weekly road trip to E. Wash for work and it was quite miserable driving over the pass early this morning but at least it was open! Was very nice however to see how much snow has fallen in a week on Snoqualmie! No water worries now this summer which is good news!

 

Big Island.    And yes... it is nice to get all that snow in the mountains.   It will pay benefits while we are boating on Lake Samm and Lake Washington all summer.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just very thankful to be missing this week at home.  

 

 

You go all the way to Hawaii to sit at a pool and gawk at the Seattle Radar? 

[Parksvillewx]

Small changes between the 12z and 00z WRF.  Not too worried this far out still.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/wrf-3.jpg

[Bryant]

Hilton Waikoloa. 

 

We are staying at the Hilton Grand Vacations across the road.   Its about 20 miles north of Kona.  

 

I have pulled up the radar from SEA quite a few times on my phone... its been raining forever at our house.    A cold, miserable rain.   I would stay down here until mid-April if I could.  

 

I'm sure no one would mind...

[TT-SEA]

You go all the way to Hawaii to sit at a pool and gawk at the Seattle Radar? 

 

 

Yep.

 

That is the only reason I go... just to watch the SEA radar.

 

In reality... it takes all of 2 seconds to glance at it when paging through bookmarks.    And I always check what is happening at home... even in July when we are out of town.

 

Anyways... another busy day tomorrow watching the SEA radar!!   

[HighlandExperience]

Small changes between the 12z and 00z WRF.  Not too worried this far out still.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/wrf-3.jpg

 

00z looks slightly better. Still time for more improvement. 

[Snowman Josh]

Am I the only one that is F'ing sick and tired of the lazy Seattle AFD? It's either the same wording, or a complete copy and paste, especially the extended. Previous discussion, previous discussion.

 

What the hell are these idiots getting paid for. It's as if they don't look at the models until it is imminent. Bunch of losers really.

[HighlandExperience]

Am I the only one that is F'ing sick and tired of the lazy Seattle AFD? It's either the same wording, or a complete copy and paste, especially the extended. Previous discussion, previous discussion.

 

What the hell are these idiots getting paid for. It's as if they don't look at the models until it is imminent. Bunch of losers really.

 

Seems like Portland NWS gets more into their discussions. They must like snow more. 

[IbrChris]

Raw accumulated snowfall totals @ hour 120 off the 00z GFS (in inches):

Seattle 4.7
Bellingham 3.1
Olympia 5.9
Centralia 4.7
Kelso 2.5
Portland 3.3
Hillsboro 3.5
McMinnville 4.7
Salem 4.9
Corvallis 1.7
Eugene 1.0

[TT-SEA]

Seems like Portland NWS gets more into their discussions. They must like snow more. 

 

 

Portland AFDs are much better.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[MossMan]

Raw accumulated snowfall totals @ hour 120 off the 00z GFS (in inches):

Seattle 4.7

Bellingham 3.1

Olympia 5.9

Centralia 4.7

Kelso 2.5

Portland 3.3

Hillsboro 3.5

McMinnville 4.7

Salem 4.9

Corvallis 1.7

Eugene 1.0

Arlington, Wa?

[Parksvillewx]

Euro is catching on.

 

12z vs 00z

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euro-2.jpg

[bainbridgekid]

00z Euro is definitely way better than the 12z through hour 66. Not nearly as dry.

 

Still not as cold as the GFS, but it's a significant improvement.

[MossMan]

Seems like Portland NWS gets more into their discussions. They must like snow more.

 

Even Spokane's discussion usually seems to be more in-depth. Yeah the copy & paste thing gets a little old, especially when there is new model data out that shows a different possible outcome but they just copy what was written 16hrs prior.

 

Oh well, that is what this site is for!

[TT-SEA]

Euro is catching on.

 

12z vs 00z

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euro-2.jpg

 

 

Seems to be settling on a solution that gives snow to Bellingham but leaves the Seattle area out of the show...  WRF has been showing that as well.

 

I am surprised that the ECMWF came around at all.

[Jesse]

Raw accumulated snowfall totals @ hour 120 off the 00z GFS (in inches):

 

Seattle 4.7

Bellingham 3.1

Olympia 5.9

Centralia 4.7

Kelso 2.5

Portland 3.3

Hillsboro 3.5

McMinnville 4.7

Salem 4.9

Corvallis 1.7

Eugene 1.0

 

Time to stick a fork in winter?

[IbrChris]

Looks like about 8.8" at Arlington.

I think GFS is much too optimistic for areas south of Seattle however...I would go with 1-2" above 1000' in the Portland area...snow level in SW WA a bit lower and near surface from about an Aberdeen to Olympia line northward.

[IbrChris]

Time to stick a fork in winter?

Ya the GFS soundings look pretty optimistic to me. It's betting on a nearly isothermal 925 mb to surface layer with moderate to heavy precip rates...I feel that's a stretch. North of Seattle on the other hand looks more reasonable, also above 1000' down around PDX and in the Gorge.

[brody]

Seems to be settling on a solution that gives snow to Bellingham but leaves the Seattle area out of the show...  WRF has been showing that as well.

 

I am surprised that the ECMWF came around at all.

And you were all hell bent on the GFS " blinking first "

 

It still could all go to but definite improvement for sure 

[Guest Monty67]

Good lord the WRF has been on a roll for my location. The last three runs have shown me getting between 10 - 16" I hope it verifies. Nice to see the Euro showing something too.