February 2014 in the PNW

[westcoastexpat]

12Z ECMWF removes the snow threat completely for Sunday... even for Bellingham.

 

Looks like some snow mixing in now close to our house.    Could not be more happy to miss out on this week there.    Probably the best week of the year to NOT be home.   

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

 

 

 

Its 9 a.m. here now... time to shutdown the laptop and wake everyone up.   

 

Yup, ridge that was off the coast of Vancouver Island on the 00z now envelops the PNW.

 

This significant change after one model run also goes to show how useless the Euro has been all winter in the LR

[HighlandExperience]

Well if we get into next week without any snowfall, then Brett Anderson's Euro weeklies interpretation says......ITS OVER

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/storm-update-and-long-range/23457326

 

Meanwhile the east gets slammed again. This winter has sucked for areas north of SW Washington.

 

I'm glad the mountains have made quite a recovery.

[Parksvillewx]

Well if we get into next week without any snowfall, then Brett Anderson's Euro weeklies interpretation says......ITS OVER

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/storm-update-and-long-range/23457326

 

Does his interpretation of the weeklies ever paint a good picture for us? Not often. 

 

I looked at the weeklies yesterday and they didn't look THAT bad.

[HighlandExperience]

Does his interpretation of the weeklies ever paint a good picture for us? Not often. 

 

I looked at the weeklies yesterday and they didn't look THAT bad.

 

Brett has a bias towards the east in general.

[Guest Monty67]

Meanwhile the east gets slammed again. This winter has sucked for areas north of SW Washington.

 

I'm glad the mountains have made quite a recovery.

Quite the recovery indeed. Mt Washington had been struggling to open for most of the season, then on Sunday they got 2 feet in the 3 hours, (according to CTV news) and people were stuck up on the Mountain as the roads became impassable.

[Guest Monty67]

Does his interpretation of the weeklies ever paint a good picture for us? Not often. 

 

I looked at the weeklies yesterday and they didn't look THAT bad.

Where did you see the updated Euro weeklies?

[Guest Monty67]

Brett has a bias towards the east in general.

Or does the cold air have a general bias towards the east?

 

I am sure people will be quick to disagree, but I generally enjoy and appreciate his postings.

[TT-SEA]

Brett has a bias towards the east in general.

No... nature does.

[HighlandExperience]

No... nature does.

 

Umm no Brett does, and so does TWC, and Accuweather.

 

Epic snows in the coastal ranges of WA and BC and hardly a peep. Even when Oregon was having an epic blast barely a mention on any of the networks. There most recent storm would have made headlines if it were DC, ATL, or NYC.

 

In one sense you are right though, and I get what you are saying. The lowlands are so fickle here.

[TT-SEA]

Umm no Brett does, and so does TWC, and Accuweather.

 

Epic snows in the coastal ranges of WA and BC and hardly a peep. Even when Oregon was having an epic blast barely a mention on any of the networks. There most recent storm would have made headlines if it were DC, ATL, or NYC.

 

In one sense you are right though, and I get what you are saying. The lowlands are so fickle here.

 

 

Yeah... it was a little tongue in cheek.   But when you look at this winter overall it has been one arctic blast after another after another back East and in the Midwest.    Anyone predicting that would be accused of an East Coast bias on this forum... but its actually been the reality.    

[luminen]

A nice mix of sun/clouds/rain and gusty winds here. Looks like it'll be solid rain pretty soon though. 

[Parksvillewx]

Where did you see the updated Euro weeklies?

 

WXbell 

 

 

Yeah... it was a little tongue in cheek.   But when you look at this winter overall it has been one arctic blast after another after another back East and in the Midwest.    Anyone predicting that would be accused of an East Coast bias on this forum... but its actually been the reality.    

 

No doubt the east has had a awesome winter.  Arctic blast after arctic blast.  Accuweather is VERY east bias. I think it's funny when you look on their "Blog" section and there will be 6 blogs about the same storm in the east yet we're having record breaking cold temps here and snow (Oregon) and barely a mention.

 

Just my $0.02

[TT-SEA]

WXbell 

 

 

 

No doubt the east has had a awesome winter.  Arctic blast after arctic blast.  Accuweather is VERY east bias. I think it's funny when you look on their "Blog" section and there will be 6 blogs about the same storm in the east yet we're having record breaking cold temps here and snow (Oregon) and barely a mention.

 

Just my $0.02

 

 

He lives in Pennsylvania.   Obviously his analysis of each storm will be much more detailed over there.   That does not mean he always paints the East Coast cold and snowy and the PNW hot and dry when doing long term updates.   Although if he does it even once then Jesse will say he does it every single time!

[HighlandExperience]

He lives in Pennsylvania.   Obviously his analysis of each storm will be much more detailed over there.   That does not mean he always paints the East Coast cold and snowy and the PNW hot and dry when doing long term updates.   Although if he does it even once then Jesse will say he does it every single time!

 

Just waiting for our "epic" year in the lowlands.

 

Central Park in NYC is now recording their second snowiest Feb. on record as of today. It truly is impressive how well the east has done this year. I noticed that a small group of resorts in the NE are pushing a 100 inches of snow on the ground.

 

An impressive feat for them, considering how sucky their resorts are.

[Weather101]

Just waiting for our "epic" year in the lowlands.

 

Central Park in NYC is now recording their second snowiest Feb. on record as of today. It truly is impressive how well the east has done this year. I noticed that a small group of resorts in the NE are pushing a 100 inches of snow on the ground.

 

An impressive feat for them, considering how sucky their resorts are.

2008 was that year

[Guest Monty67]

Umm no Brett does, and so does TWC, and Accuweather.

 

Epic snows in the coastal ranges of WA and BC and hardly a peep. Even when Oregon was having an epic blast barely a mention on any of the networks. There most recent storm would have made headlines if it were DC, ATL, or NYC.

 

In one sense you are right though, and I get what you are saying. The lowlands are so fickle here.

Brett writes a Canadian Blog, so it wouldn't make much sense for him to go into detail for a storm that only really affected Oregon, but I do agree that the big weather sites as a whole are east biased. I don't know why they cant have one of their employees dedicate a good blog to Washington, Oregon, and Northern California.

[HighlandExperience]

2008 was that year

 

2008 was not squat compared to the old skool storms we experienced.

 

I want a January 1880 or 1950 type of event.

[Weather101]

2008 was not squat compared to the old skool storms we experienced.

 

I want a January 1880 or 1950 type of event.

LOL I'm with you on that

[Phil]

Kinda OT, but is anyone here besides me suffering from a case of spring fever? I've never had it this bad before.

 

For the first time since before Thanksgiving, it's warmed above 40F, the birds are chirping, the snowpack is melting, and everyone in town is wearing short sleeves. It smells like rain-water outside instead of chimney smoke..love it!

[hailstop]

I cant remember if you work for EC or not. But did you not at least see the possibility of that event before it happened. looked like it was going to be a close call and had been modeled several days out. I was surprised that no mention of snow was made, at least for Northern Sections of the east Island. I am not trying to rag on EC, I am just curious as to what model guidance they were using.

 

I don't work for Environment Canada, I work for a private forecasting company.

 

But nope, didn't see it. Unfortunately I don't have the time to look at every single model output out there, especially the hi-res models (which I've found to over-forecast snow generally).

 

We've actually gotten to the point now where we actually arguably have too much information that isn't necessarily easy to process. Yes, there's lots of models, webcams, radars, etc etc out there, but it's getting to be information overload now. There's so many models that generally you can find one that will support the forecast scenario that you're going for. If webcams aren't on an easy to access site, they're impossible to monitor. Same thing with weather obs. I have lots of access to obs but without a method to get a good overall picture, they're not so useful.

 

Which is why I love Weatherunderground's Wundermap.  Love love love that thing.

 

For example, as part of our contract with the BC Ministry of HIghways, we have access to all the RWIS stations. But the interface is horrible if you're trying to forecast for the entire province. It'd take 30 minutes just to cycle through the stations each hour. So I actually had to write a program to import the data and display it in an easy to use fashion on our network.

[Phil]

Yeah... it was a little tongue in cheek.   But when you look at this winter overall it has been one arctic blast after another after another back East and in the Midwest.    Anyone predicting that would be accused of an East Coast bias on this forum... but its actually been the reality.

 

Accuweather has a horrible East-Coast bias. The 1/10" ZR glaze in Louisiana got more mention than the PDX/OR snow event, which is totally LOL. I think the reason is that most of their followers/subscribers live in the East.

 

That said, this winter has been the coldest I've ever experienced. The consistency of single-digit highs and sub-zero lows was incredible. The blizzard in January had an ambient air temp of -14 degrees..which was the last straw for my wife. We're definitely moving.

[Guest Monty67]

Kinda OT, but is anyone here besides me suffering from a case of spring fever? I've never had it this bad before.

 

For the first time since before Thanksgiving, it's warmed above 40F, the birds are chirping, the snowpack is melting, and everyone in town is wearing short sleeves. It smells like rain-water outside instead of chimney smoke..love it!

No, I am still waiting for winter.

 

Actually, I am really getting close to throwing in the towel. Seems like maybe Jim has, he has disappeared. I'm going to be laying on the beach in Cuba, first week or March. From a selfish standpoint I hope it doesn't decide to snow here then.

[Phil]

Central Park in NYC is now recording their second snowiest Feb. on record as of today. It truly is impressive how well the east has done this year. I noticed that a small group of resorts in the NE are pushing a 100 inches of snow on the ground.

 

An impressive feat for them, considering how sucky their resorts are.

Regardless, New England still sucks balls.

 

It isn't just this winter. There has been a notable change in the Atlantic meridional cells since the turn of the century, especially since 2006.

 

The recent decade has been the most prolific for east-coast snowfall since the 1830s..the end of the Dalton Minimum. My city has broken the previous all-time snowfall record 4 times since 1996 and had seen a 33% jump in average snowfall since 1998.

[BLI snowman]

Of course it's not an absolute requirement, but in order to attenuate the time of the year, having weak offshore flow is not going to be enough to bank on definite snow, as stated by the poster.

 

The offshore flow shown was not  "too" weak. Having 20mph NE winds would be plenty. It doesn't take much Fraser River outflow at all to get snow in Bellingham or Abbotsford.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Regardless, New England still sucks balls.

 

It isn't just this winter. There has been a notable change in the Atlantic meridional cells since the turn of the century, especially since 2006.

 

The recent decade has been the most prolific for east-coast snowfall since the 1830s..the end of the Dalton Minimum. My city has broken the previous all-time snowfall record 4 times since 1996 and had seen a 33% jump in average snowfall since 1998.

That is weird.

[HighlandExperience]

I-90 thru the pass is closed. Looks like a nuclear snow bomb exploded.

[weatherfan2012]

Kinda OT, but is anyone here besides me suffering from a case of spring fever? I've never had it this bad before.

For the first time since before Thanksgiving, it's warmed above 40F, the birds are chirping, the snowpack is melting, and everyone in town is wearing short sleeves. It smells like rain-water outside instead of chimney smoke..love it!

this has been a long cold winter for most of the nation so it was good to get some warmth.those it makes me wonder the winters starting around 2017 if you are right we maybe in for severe winters nation wide depending what the next few solar cycles do.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Brett writes a Canadian Blog, so it wouldn't make much sense for him to go into detail for a storm that only really affected Oregon, but I do agree that the big weather sites as a whole are east biased. I don't know why they cant have one of their employees dedicate a good blog to Washington, Oregon, and Northern California.

 

Ken Clark is the one who usually covers west coast weather and he is based here in Socal. He does mention the PNW when there is significant weather in the region. Whether he has discussed lowland snow events or not, I can't remember at this moment. He has been more focused on the CA drought as of late and the prospects for beneficial rain and snow in the region.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Kinda OT, but is anyone here besides me suffering from a case of spring fever? I've never had it this bad before.

 

For the first time since before Thanksgiving, it's warmed above 40F, the birds are chirping, the snowpack is melting, and everyone in town is wearing short sleeves. It smells like rain-water outside instead of chimney smoke..love it!

 

I am not suffering from a case of spring fever, because it has been such a warm and incredibly dry winter this year so far. The lack of any meaningful rainfall this year is really getting to me, though, and the weather has been downright boring, even for southern California standards.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Regardless, New England still sucks balls.

 

It isn't just this winter. There has been a notable change in the Atlantic meridional cells since the turn of the century, especially since 2006.

 

The recent decade has been the most prolific for east-coast snowfall since the 1830s..the end of the Dalton Minimum. My city has broken the previous all-time snowfall record 4 times since 1996 and had seen a 33% jump in average snowfall since 1998.

 

Does this have something to do with why CA has been so dry lately, and is this AMO related?

[Alex_Snakes]

I-90 thru the pass is closed. Looks like a nuclear snow bomb exploded.

 

The Franklin Falls cam is pretty crazy. Look the walls of snow on each side of the road. Glad to see we won't have to worry too much about water this summer!

[epiceast]

I-90 thru the pass is closed. Looks like a nuclear snow bomb exploded.

The nuke has been turned up to 11 since Sunday. It's actually inconvenient at this point.

[Skagit Weather]

All this snow is amazing for the mountains. Since the 10th Mount Baker has gained 60" of base and currently has a 145-165" spread for the base. If this continues we might approach 200" for a base.

[Skagit Weather]

ECMWF wunderground maps still have some snow here early tomorrow morning. I don't have much hope, but it might be possible.

[Jesse]

Snowing in North Everett.

 

Nice. Just had a fairly large hailstorm here.

[epiceast]

http://snowbrains.com/10-deepest-snowpacks-north-america/

Check out the NC resorts with >100".

[HighlandExperience]

http://snowbrains.com/10-deepest-snowpacks-north-america/

Check out the NC resorts with >100".

 

I saw that earlier. You never see that happen. They better enjoy it now, because skiing on eastern slopes is generally like skiing on 10 inches of ice crust. 

 

Pretty awesome how quickly the Cascades of WA bolted to the top of the list as usual. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing in North Everett.

Even without -6 850 temps and strong outflow!!?? Wow amazing.

[Jesse]

Even without -6 850 temps and strong outflow!!?? Wow amazing.

 

It's like someone who knows nothing about the nuances of PNW weather made up those arbitrary parameters.

[Jesse]

Crunching the numbers...PDX still has a shot at a top five cold February. The year to beat is 1969 which averaged 39.7f there. 

 

They are at 38.2f as of yesterday. This coming week will really have to overachieve cold-wise to give them a realistic chance.