February 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Wow, GFS sure got interesting all of a sudden.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow, GFS sure got interesting all of a sudden.

Big time.

[Jesse]

Big time.

 

From what I can tell the 12Z EURO moved slightly in this direction as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

From what I can tell the 12Z EURO moved slightly in this direction as well.

This is the first time this winter I have seen that pattern show up. A arctic front with snow along with it. Classic look.

[Deweydog]

Looks similar to two weeks ago, just warmer and displaced a few hundred miles north.  

 

Hmmmmmmmm... 50+ at PDX?  

[MossMan]

Looks similar to two weeks ago, just warmer and displaced a few hundred miles north.  

 

Hmmmmmmmm... 50+ at PDX?

 

But 30 and snow for Arlington? Northern Washington's turn!

[umadbro]

If it's to good to be true, it usually is.  But then again, the models didn't pick up on Thursdays snow last week until the morning before.  Even then it was only the EURO.  Lets get it done Mother nature!  Portland has a lot to make up for!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

K-Mart's FB page with 60,000 "likes" was taken down in one night by prolific internet troll Don Joseph Rockefeller.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to about 9" on the month now. Which is average for the entire month of February. Going to be my first above average rainfall month since September and the wettest of the 3 Februaries since I have lived here.

[Parksvillewx]

UW WRF is picking up on something for me towards the end of the week.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/wrf.jpg

 

12Z Euro showed a dusting too in this timeframe.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euro.jpg

 

 

[Weather101]

UW WRF is picking up on something for me towards the end of the week.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/wrf.jpg

 

12Z Euro showed a dusting too in this timeframe.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euro.jpg

Is this for Friday ?

[BLI snowman]

I've had a feeling for awhile that late February and/or early March will be makeup time for the rest of the winter. It's just rather hard for me to picture seeing Corvallis finish with 20" of snow and us with 2".

[BLI snowman]

00z Canadian was still way to the East with the big February 23-24 airmass.

 

Quite a lot of spread amongst the 00z ensembles for that time period, as well, as should be expected

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Skagit Weather]

Hmmm...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014021800/images_d2/ww_snow24.168.0000.gif

[Parksvillewx]

Hmmm...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014021800/images_d2/ww_snow24.168.0000.gif

 

 

Wow, that'd be nice if it were to verify.

 

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/wrf-1.jpg

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has been consistent showing nice weather next week and nothing this weekend.

 

00Z ECMWF follows suit.

[Deweydog]

ECMWF has been consistent showing nice weather next week and nothing this weekend.

 

Whoa!

[epiceast]

Oh D**n, we're going with the classical models show a lot of snow 5 days out and then not much happens pattern. Definitely haven't had much of that this winter, all of the events materialized out of thin air so far.

 

Are you guys ready for maximum model riding?

[BLI snowman]

ECMWF has been consistent showing nice weather next week and nothing this weekend.

 

00Z ECMWF follows suit.

 

00z Euro certainly gives NW WA and SW BC snow next Sunday.

[epiceast]

00z Euro certainly gives NW WA and SW BC snow next Sunday.

I don't believe it until the GEM shows it.

[TT-SEA]

00z Euro certainly gives NW WA and SW BC snow next Sunday.

 

With this?    Seems too warm...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014021800!!chart.gif

[IbrChris]

I wouldn't wait on the ECWMF to come around...there's good ensemble consensus for the arctic air dropping into the lower 48 well east of the Rockies. The focus is going to be more toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

[BLI snowman]

With this?    Seems too warm...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014021800!!chart.gif

 

Nope, 850mb temps are -4c right there with NE winds and a strong arctic airmass not too far away. 'Twould be snow. Similar to the 00z GFS, maybe slightly warmer.

[Weather101]

With this? Seems too warm...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014021800!!chart.gif

You're out of town why do you care

[Weather101]

Nope, 850mb temps are -4c right there with NE winds and a strong arctic airmass not too far away. 'Twould be snow. Similar to the 00z GFS, maybe slightly warmer.

sounds good!

[westcoastexpat]

The RGEM this winter has been continuously fantastic in terms of accuracy.

[westcoastexpat]

Nope, 850mb temps are -4c right there with NE winds and a strong arctic airmass not too far away. 'Twould be snow. Similar to the 00z GFS, maybe slightly warmer.

 

Not quite that simple. It's always best to look at a closer view of a model run than the continent view.

 

At the end of February, for areas near the water, you're going to need -5c or lower 850s, so -4c is going to be very borderline. 00Z Euro output does not show a widespread NE wind direction; actually, it shows quite a bit of wind shear as a small high pressure off Van. Is. fights the offshore flow with the onshore flow, which will allow surface mixing with the air aloft, which is moderating the 850 mb height thermal layer. 

 

However, CZ formation could be in the works. We are still a week out so I'm not going to start analyzing CZ formation possibilities: this is something you do a couple days out. But right now, I don't see anything too exciting for the Bellingham/Vancouver area, unfortunately.

 

Of course, this is all Euro discussion, a model which has done a (surprisingly) poor job this winter. The RGEM shows no tangible snow at this point, and it is the model to go by at this stage.

[Jesse]

I wouldn't wait on the ECWMF to come around...there's good ensemble consensus for the arctic air dropping into the lower 48 well east of the Rockies. The focus is going to be more toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

 

Sounds like the words of someone who prematurely stuck a fork in our winter last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the words of someone who prematurely stuck a fork in our winter last night.

 

Did Mark finally do it for real this time?!

[Prairiedog]

And here is my wife with about 10 layers of clothing on.

Do you know how much snow was in Republic itself?  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS certainly flirts with possibilities... so good outflow on that run as well.

[BLI snowman]

Not quite that simple. It's always best to look at a closer view of a model run than the continent view.

 

At the end of February, for areas near the water, you're going to need -5c or lower 850s, so -4c is going to be very borderline. 00Z Euro output does not show a widespread NE wind direction; actually, it shows quite a bit of wind shear as a small high pressure off Van. Is. fights the offshore flow with the onshore flow, which will allow surface mixing with the air aloft, which is moderating the 850 mb height thermal layer. 

 

However, CZ formation could be in the works. We are still a week out so I'm not going to start analyzing CZ formation possibilities: this is something you do a couple days out. But right now, I don't see anything too exciting for the Bellingham/Vancouver area, unfortunately.

 

Of course, this is all Euro discussion, a model which has done a (surprisingly) poor job this winter. The RGEM shows no tangible snow at this point, and it is the model to go by at this stage.

 

Uh, no. The surface dynamics matter a lot more than the 850mb dynamics. There is no magical number for seeing snow here at the end of February, what's important is offshore flow, a dry layer aloft, and an air column that is below freezing from 700mb on down. The Euro showed Fraser River outflow, with the Fraser River prone locales having a good amount of it. GFS shows the same thing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Do you know how much snow was in Republic itself?  

8 inches. The area is snow starved.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12Z GFS certainly flirts with possibilities... so good outflow on that run as well.

Tim, when I was coming down the pass last evening I looked to the left up where I think your place is and the snow line was way up the ridge.

[Jesse]

Did Mark finally do it for real this time?!

Not that I know of. But Chris did it on his Facebook page last night.

[westcoastexpat]

Uh, no. The surface dynamics matter a lot more than the 850mb dynamics. There is no magical number for seeing snow here at the end of February, what's important is offshore flow, a dry layer aloft, and an air column that is below freezing from 700mb on down. The Euro showed Fraser River outflow, with the Fraser River prone locales having a good amount of it. GFS shows the same thing.

 

The issue is that the Euro does not show solid FR outflow for areas along the US/CAN border. When you have a high pressure parked right next to Vancouver Island you run the risk of onshore flow combating the offshore flow, which allows for mixing. This raises the dew point and moistens the air column, raising temperatures aloft hurting chances of decent accumulating snow during an already borderline setup. This doesn't mean snow is a no-go, but it does significantly hurt the chance of any snow having a decent shot at accumulating.

 

Also, a word of the advice: don't bother looking at the GFS this winter after hour 72.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This week turned into a huge bust for my location...Now its looking like a dusting is the most likely scenario tomorrow morning. A few days ago it looked like I had a solid chance at 3-5" of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF removes the snow threat completely for Sunday... even for Bellingham.

 

Looks like some snow mixing in now close to our house.    Could not be more happy to miss out on this week there.    Probably the best week of the year to NOT be home.   

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

 

 

 

Its 9 a.m. here now... time to shutdown the laptop and wake everyone up.   

[westcoastexpat]

 It helps but its not an absolute requirement.

 

Of course it's not an absolute requirement, but in order to attenuate the time of the year, having weak offshore flow is not going to be enough to bank on definite snow, as stated by the poster.

[Guest Monty67]

Well if we get into next week without any snowfall, then Brett Anderson's Euro weeklies interpretation says......ITS OVER

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/storm-update-and-long-range/23457326