February 2014 in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

This has been a great winter for Corvallis and Eugene!

 

But I just looked at the PDX ensembles and the 00z has about half the members pretty cold for this weekend! Interesting times we are living in!

If the blocking had been just a bit further west this winter would have been epic for all of us. Our time will come. Just nice to see the cold really making an appearance in the lower 48 this winter.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I can't wait for a winter where we have major Arctic outbreaks and heavy lowland snow for everyone. We have certainly been nibbling at the edges of doing it.

 

We need a winter in which you all in the PNW get lowland heavy snow and a very active storm track in California.

 

Despite the occasional cold air outbreaks this winter in your region, this has been one of the worst winters in terms of the lack of meaningful precipitation I have ever seen to this date here in Socal. Something is seriously wrong when Phoenix and Tucson have had more rainfall since October 1 than many areas in coastal Socal have had since July 1.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

UW WRF kicks it all off on Saturday 10am...

 

 

Man, this would be nice to verify.  My location is right in the middle of it.  Basically, if 11 snowflakes fell, and landed in the same spot I'd have more snow then I've had all winter.

 

EC is showing 9C/48F and cloudy on Sunday with an above freezing low for the eastern side of the island. If things were to play out as the GFS has them playing out that would be a pretty massive bust, even for a 5 days forecast. Looks really similar to last night's 0z, these lows sliding down from the Queen Charlotte's typically bring substantial snowfalls to NW WA/SW BC. This would be a very surface driven event, things look pretty unimpressive at the 500mb level.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian ensemble is way colder than the operational GEM. Quite a number of members colder than the GFS operational run. This just might happen.

[snow_wizard]

We need a winter in which you all in the PNW get lowland heavy snow and a very active storm track in California.

 

Despite the occasional cold air outbreaks this winter in your region, this has been one of the worst winters in terms of the lack of meaningful precipitation I have ever seen to this date here in Socal. Something is seriously wrong when Phoenix and Tucson have had more rainfall since October 1 than many areas in coastal Socal have had since July 1.

You missed out on a great opportunity earlier in the month when Northern Cal scored big. Your region could have an epic drought if something doesn't give soon.

[Parksvillewx]

EC is showing 9C/48F and cloudy on Sunday with an above freezing low for the eastern side of the island. If things were to play out as the GFS has them playing out that would be a pretty massive bust, even for a 5 days forecast. Looks really similar to last night's 0z, these lows sliding down from the Queen Charlotte's typically bring substantial snowfalls to NW WA/SW BC. This would be a very surface driven event, things look pretty unimpressive at the 500mb level.

 

Ya, I noticed that their 5 Day for my area was boring..

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/ec.jpg

[Parksvillewx]

00z Euro doesn't look anything like the UW WRF.

 

 

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euro-1.jpg

[bainbridgekid]

Euro continues to not cooperate.

 

00z is colder than the 12z but not nearly as good as the GFS through hour 114

[Weather101]

EC is showing 9C/48F and cloudy on Sunday with an above freezing low for the eastern side of the island. If things were to play out as the GFS has them playing out that would be a pretty massive bust, even for a 5 days forecast. Looks really similar to last night's 0z, these lows sliding down from the Queen Charlotte's typically bring substantial snowfalls to NW WA/SW BC. This would be a very surface driven event, things look pretty unimpressive at the 500mb level.

EC busted over the weekend with snow on the island even tho the models showed it for days and they had a high of 7c and rain lol

[Weather101]

Euro continues to not cooperate.

 

00z is colder than the 12z but not nearly as good as the GFS through hour 114

At leasts it cold . But you're right. It has a few days to jump on board still and improve ! Trend is looking better overall gotta hope it stays like this

[snow_wizard]

Euro continues to not cooperate.

 

00z is colder than the 12z but not nearly as good as the GFS through hour 114

This is a really odd one. The ensemble support for the GFS is so strong that it's hard to discount it. The 0z GFS was dramatically better than previous runs even by day 3. Obviously one of the models is going to blink tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

This is a really odd one. The ensemble support for the GFS is so strong that it's hard to discount it. The 0z GFS was dramatically better than previous runs even by day 3. Obviously one of the models is going to blink tomorrow.

 

 

My bet is on the GFS blinking.    Big time.

[Weather101]

My bet is on the GFS blinking. Big time.

Thanks!

[TT-SEA]

Thanks!

 

 

The ECMWF rarely does an about face at this range.   Could happen... its a complicated situation.   But the ECMWF usually resolves complicated situations better.

[Weather101]

The ECMWF rarely does an about face at this range. Could happen... its a complicated situation. But the ECMWF usually resolves complicated situations better.

Yeah . Hopefully it turns out good !

[Poulsbo Snowman]

00z Euro doesn't look anything like the UW WRF.

 

 

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euro-1.jpg

I thought you were in Hawaii.

[bainbridgekid]

Unsurprisingly still a huge amount of ensemble spread for the 23rd-25th.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Phil]

ECMWF week 2 forecast anoms:

 

Good Lord...I've never seen it forecast departures like this.

 

I mainly posted this because when looking at accuweather, you can also see that Brett Anderson tried to shrink the cold anomalies in his hand drawn "interpretation".

 

He's a dishonest crank:

 

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9128/30ln.jpg

 

Versus:

 

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/6306/2r09.jpg

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF week 2 forecast anoms:

 

Good Lord...I've never seen it forecast departures like this.

 

I mainly posted this because when looking at accuweather, you can also see that Brett Anderson tried to shrink the cold anomalies in his hand drawn "interpretation".

 

He's a dishonest crank:

 

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9128/30ln.jpg

 

Versus:

 

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/6306/2r09.jpg

 

 

I have some relatives booking impromptu vacations now to Hawaii and the Caribbean because this winter has been so miserable there... looking at the ECMWF the last few runs I am just in awe that it can still be so brutal going into March.     Given how bad it has been... I never expected this to continue to this degree of intensity for so long.

[Phil]

The ECMWF rarely does an about face at this range. Could happen... its a complicated situation. But the ECMWF usually resolves complicated situations better.

The GFS has been for s**t here all winter. I've been better off just looking at the ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET.

 

Sometime this year, NCEP will upgrade the GFS's spatial reso to 13km..which will officially put it above the current ECMWF in terms of reso. That said, ECMWF is planning a huge upgrade as well.

 

In 2018, the parameters within the suites HRRR, RAP, NAM, and SREF will be combined into a super-high reso, 87hr mesoscale model, which will replace the NAM.

[Guest Monty67]

FWIW:

 

 

Still tons of model spread and this is a very volatile pattern so there is obviously still enormous uncertainty but that sure is purdy.

16" for me. That would be fun

[Phil]

I have some relatives booking impromptu vacations now to Hawaii and the Caribbean because this winter has been so miserable there... looking at the ECMWF the last few runs I am just in awe that it can still be so brutal going into March. Given how bad it has been... I never expected this to continue to this degree of intensity for so long.

It's been ridiculous. Coldest winter here since 1993-94, which was affected significantly by Pinatubo.

 

Some places in Minnesota (ex: Duluth) have broken their all-time records for greatest number of below-zero lows. Chicago is going to have its snowiest winter in history. Significant snow/ice has raked the gulf coast (FL/AL/MS/LA/TX) more than once already. Pure insanity..

 

My neighbor who had lived here since '69 says only the late 1970s were colder, outside 1993-94 (which we now call the "Pinatubo winter")..

[bainbridgekid]

Interestingly the 6z is even colder than the 00z through hour 96.

 

Much drier along the arctic front for some reason but it's more important at this point to not see it sliding things East.

[Dan the Weatherman]

You missed out on a great opportunity earlier in the month when Northern Cal scored big. Your region could have an epic drought if something doesn't give soon.

 

The subtropical ridge extended further north than average for this time of year shunting all the action up and over us and leaving us in the dust. At least Norcal got much needed rainfall, as they are in even worse shape than we are down here and that is where a good deal of our water supply comes from. Hopefully the pattern changes next week as there has been better model agreement on this and brings more widespread rain and snow throughout the state and not just Norcal this time around.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It's been ridiculous. Coldest winter here since 1993-94, which was affected significantly by Pinatubo.

 

Some places in Minnesota (ex: Duluth) have broken their all-time records for greatest number of below-zero lows. Chicago is going to have its snowiest winter in history. Significant snow/ice has raked the gulf coast (FL/AL/MS/LA/TX) more than once already. Pure insanity..

 

My neighbor who had lived here since '69 says only the late 1970s were colder, outside 1993-94 (which we now call the "Pinatubo winter")..

 

The pattern has really been stuck in one mode for most of the late fall and winter so far: western ridging and Midwestern / eastern troughing, without a whole lot of variability in between. This has resulted in one of the driest if not the driest winter to date in Socal, with many more warm spells than normal since November with highs hitting the 70s and 80s on a regular basis while the eastern half of the nation has been in the deep freeze. Furthermore, there has not been a single storm in my area (Orange) in which I have measured .40" or more. Only .17" has fallen here since December 20! I have seen really cold winters like this before back east such as 1995-96, but at least there has been variability in the patterns that would allow storms to bring periods of significant rains during the course of the winter. This year, however, hardly any storms of consequence have been able to penetrate the area to bring healthy doses of precip.

[HighlandExperience]

My bet is on the GFS blinking.    Big time.

 

Same with nws.

 

THE 00Z WED RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING

INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIVING SOME COLD FRASER

OUTFLOW INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE UW WRF-GFS INITIALIZED WITH

THAT RUN SHOWS LOWLAND SNOW...IN FACT LOTS OF IT...ACROSS THE

WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR

NOW WE HAVE TO DISMISS THAT SOLUTION

[Jesse]

06Z GFS didn't blink.

[HighlandExperience]

06Z GFS didn't blink.

 

Hopefully this is a situation where the GFS is on to something.

[Jesse]

Hopefully this is a situation where the GFS is on to something.

 

I know some people say they don't matter at this short of a range, but the ensembles look pretty good too. About half of them are a good deal colder than the operational.

[Parksvillewx]

I thought you were in Hawaii.

 

 

Uhh not me.  I think TT-Sea is..(Tim?)

[catnip]

Uhh not me.  I think TT-Sea is..(Tim?)

 

Yeah, and he should have his mind on all the bikini's walking around the beaches, and not on a weather forum.

 

[Timmy]

Yeah, and he should have his mind on all the bikini's walking around the beaches, and not on a weather forum.

 

I'm almost positive he is wearing one himself.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12Z GFS remains insistent on snowfall this weekend, the timing would be interesting in that our last February snowfall was back on Feb 23/24, 2011. The 6Z really watered down the Queen Charlotte's low so it's nice to see it back. This would have the Arctic high in a good place and the snow starting around hr 80, so we're coming up on the range where the modelling of details starts to matter.

[GHweatherChris]

Had a heavy snow shower with some hail right before I headed out for work. Left a decent dusting. I was surprised to see that.

[Jesse]

Lots of snow in the hills around Carson this morning. Down to about 1,000'. Looks like they had a low of 35 at the school.

[HighlandExperience]

NWS seems to have put the snow discussion aside for now in their morning report. Caustiously optimistic.

[Parksvillewx]

12Z UW WRF still showing snow.  It's actually increased totals since last nights run.

[Weather101]

12Z UW WRF still showing snow. It's actually increased totals since last nights run.

Post the map?

[HighlandExperience]

12Z UW WRF still showing snow.  It's actually increased totals since last nights run.

 

Mmm it looked better for areas north of Seattle though.

 

Before it was showing barely any snow in the outflow areas of BC. Now it is showing way more snow in that area. Of course there will be lots of tweeks between now than Sunday.

[HighlandExperience]

Post the map?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.132.0000.gif