February 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

The model has been perfectly fine... its Mother Nature that you have a problem with this winter.

 

It was SO much better with the multiple snow events in Portland earlier this month and in December farther south.   

 

You just don't like what it shows.    Don't confuse that with being a bad model.

 

The detail ECMWF maps are far superior to the GFS/WRF.    Cliff Mass will tell you that 100 times over.

I want to use all my likes on this post as it is spot on!! People are just so emotionally vested they see what they want to see.

[epiceast]

The model has been perfectly fine... its Mother Nature that you have a problem with this winter.

 

It was SO much better with the multiple snow events in Portland earlier this month and in December farther south.   

 

You just don't like what it shows.    Don't confuse that with being a bad model.

 

The detail ECMWF maps are far superior to the GFS/WRF.    Cliff Mass will tell you that 100 times over.

Except GEM showed it 24 hours earlier.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not this winter. The GFS has consistently been one step ahead of the Euro.

Huh?! Not at all

[brody]

Huh?! Not at all

Swamp gas must be thick tonight, cause your head is all manner of f*** up

[GHweatherChris]

The model has been perfectly fine... its Mother Nature that you have a problem with this winter.

 

It was SO much better with the multiple snow events in Portland earlier this month and in December farther south.   

 

You just don't like what it shows.    Don't confuse that with being a bad model.

 

The detail ECMWF maps are far superior to the GFS/WRF.    Cliff Mass will tell you that 100 times over.

The GFS has handled the snow I have gotten here better than any model this winter.

[snow_wizard]

This will unquestionably be interesting to watch. We are literally on the razors edge between a pattern that will bring several inches of snow to Seattle and one that will produce nothing more than a nasty rain / snow mix.

 

At this point I would discount anyone that says they know for sure what will happen.

[snow_wizard]

I want to use all my likes on this post as it is spot on!! People are just so emotionally vested they see what they want to see.

You think Tim is objective?

 

Have you seen me say we will be buried in snow this weekend? The only firm prediction I've made is the ECMWF is too far north with the track of the low based on two models being much further south than the ECMWF.

[epiceast]

I like how Tim is completely ignoring GEM's performance this winter. GEM tracked every low correctly 24 hours before Euro had any idea, and Euro often underdid the precip as its usual with its bias. GFS was out to lunch a lot of times, I agree.

[brody]

You think Tim is objective?

 

Have you seen me say we will be buried in snow this weekend? The only firm prediction I've made is the ECMWF is too far north with the track of the low based on two models being much further south than the ECMWF.

I am going to use all my likes on Jim b/c he clearly stated a possible significant lowland event would occur in the Feb 20th onward time frame 

[TT-SEA]

Not this winter. The GFS has consistently been one step ahead of the Euro.

 

I'm not saying the GFS is totally going to be right, but I would bet the low will track south of what the ECMWF is showing. The Canadian model has done nothing but trend closer to the GFS which gives me more faith in the final outcome leaning toward the GFS.

 

No flipping way.

 

And to trust the WRF over the ECMWF maps with the surface details is silly.     

 

You would be singing the ECMWF praises if the tables were turned.     I know we need the ECMWF on your side before the event happens or it will not happen.    The ECMWF might change to a GFS-like solution 5 days out... but you will not likely win without the ECMWF surface details on your side before the event begins.

[snow_wizard]

I am going to use all my likes on Jim b/c he clearly stated a possible significant lowland event would occur in the Feb 20th onward time frame

+1!

[TT-SEA]

I like how Tim is completely ignoring GEM's performance this winter. GEM tracked every low correctly 24 hours before Euro had any idea, and Euro often underdid the precip as its usual with its bias. GFS was out to lunch a lot of times, I agree.

 

 

I am not sure about the GEM performance.      You might be right... I just don't know.

 

I know you are right about the GFS being out to lunch.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You think Tim is objective? :lol:Have you seen me say we will be buried in snow this weekend? The only firm prediction I've made is the ECMWF is too far north with the track of the low based on two models being much further south than the ECMWF.

fair enough... And yes the swamp gas is thick here. I just agree that the GFS is often out to lunch maybe this time it is not. The only snow I see happening is up north if I were to go with model consensus. Anything else is a crapshoot.

[IbrChris]

Not this winter. The GFS has consistently been one step ahead of the Euro.

 

I'm not saying the GFS is totally going to be right, but I would bet the low will track south of what the ECMWF is showing. The Canadian model has done nothing but trend closer to the GFS which gives me more faith in the final outcome leaning toward the GFS.

Well let's take a look at ECMWF, GFS and GEM 500 mb anomaly correlation values at Day 5 (120 hour)

 

Last 7 days

ECMWF 0.941

GFS 0.883

GEM 0.940

 

Last 30 days

ECMWF 0.925

GFS 0.911

GEM 0.902

 

Last 365 days

ECMWF 0.903

GFS 0.879

GEM: 0.901 (since Nov 1)

 

The lineup is 1) ECMWF, 2) GEM, 3) GFS in the last week.

 

GFS is having it's monthly "dropout" period unfortunately. Its correlation for the past several runs has been pretty abysmal (hour 120 verification)

 

[TT-SEA]

You think Tim is objective?

 

Have you seen me say we will be buried in snow this weekend? The only firm prediction I've made is the ECMWF is too far north with the track of the low based on two models being much further south than the ECMWF.

 

I am pretty objective about model performance.

 

I know the ECMWF detailed maps are scary good.   I say it when they show what I want... and I say it when they don't show what I want.

 

What I want is meaningless.    The ECMWF detailed maps are insanely good.   Period.  

[brody]

At this point I would discount anyone that says they know for sure what will happen.

Boy if there was ever an " open door " statement this is it and as such I am about to walk through.

 

9 inches @ Jim's place

 

-4 inches @ Tim's

[brody]

fair enough... And yes the swamp gas is thick here.

LMAO

 

Just a small jab at ya man

[TT-SEA]

Boy if there was ever an " open door " statement this is it and as such I am about to walk through.

 

9 inches @ Jim's place

 

-4 inches @ Tim's

 

 

I have no horse in this race.    It does not matter to me at all what happens on Sunday.   Hopefully whatever falls is long melted by next Wednesday.   

 

If the ECMWF detailed maps showed 6 inches of snow in Seattle and the WRF showed rain... I would say get ready for snow in Seattle.    

[brody]

I have no horse in this race.    It does not matter to me at all what happens on Sunday.   Hopefully whatever falls is long melted by next Wednesday.   

 

If the ECMWF detailed maps showed 6 inches of snow in Seattle and the WRF showed rain... I would say get ready for snow in Seattle.    

I can see you frowning from here

[Gradient Keeper]

Well let's take a look at ECMWF, GFS and GEM 500 mb anomaly correlation values at Day 5 (120 hour)

 

Last 7 days

ECMWF 0.941

GFS 0.883

GEM 0.940

 

Last 30 days

ECMWF 0.925

GFS 0.911

GEM 0.902

 

Last 365 days

ECMWF 0.903

GFS 0.879

GEM: 0.901 (since Nov 1)

 

The lineup is 1) ECMWF, 2) GEM, 3) GFS in the last week.

 

GFS is having it's monthly "dropout" period unfortunately. It's correlation for the past several runs has been pretty abysmal (hour 120 verification)

 

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2ephk49.jpg

EURO is the clear winner. GEM did better than I expected.

[GHweatherChris]

I can see you frowning from here

I can see his kids frowning.

[IbrChris]

ECMWF did the best with our snow in the Willamette Valley earlier this month. I don't generally discredit it inside day 5-6 without some good reasons.

[luvssnow_spokane]

LMAO

 

Just a small jab at ya man

I know... I laughed when I read it... ... I hope you get pounded with white stuff up your way.

[Gradient Keeper]

We're what? 72 - 84 hours out from this possible "event" and the EURO isn't on board? That's never a good sign. I guess we'll find out by 12z or 00z tomorrow.

[bainbridgekid]

Well let's take a look at ECMWF, GFS and GEM 500 mb anomaly correlation values at Day 5 (120 hour)

 

Last 7 days

ECMWF 0.941

GFS 0.883

GEM 0.940

 

Last 30 days

ECMWF 0.925

GFS 0.911

GEM 0.902

 

Last 365 days

ECMWF 0.903

GFS 0.879

GEM: 0.901 (since Nov 1)

 

The lineup is 1) ECMWF, 2) GEM, 3) GFS in the last week.

 

GFS is having it's monthly "dropout" period unfortunately. It's correlation for the past several runs has been pretty abysmal (hour 120 verification)

 

Fascinating. I'm impressed by how well the GEM has done.

 

Do you have the values for around 72 hours? That would be more relevant since that is the time period we are focused on right now.

[GHweatherChris]

We're what? 72 - 84 hours out from this possible "event" and the EURO isn't on board? That's never a good sign. I guess we'll find out by 12z or 00z tomorrow.

I am just in wait and see mode now.

[brody]

I know... I laughed when I read it... ... I hope you get pounded with white stuff up your way.

Who am I Tony Montana?

[TT-SEA]

EURO is the clear winner. GEM did better than I expected.

 

 

Of course.

 

There is no doubt the ECMWF is better.    Cliff Mass calls the ECMWF the gold standard... and mocks his own WRF in favor of the ECMWF surface maps.

[TT-SEA]

Fascinating. I'm impressed by how well the GEM has done.

 

Do you have the values for around 72 hours? That would be more relevant since that is the time period we are focused on right now.

 

 

You are a data geek!    I love it.   

[epiceast]

EURO is the clear winner. GEM did better than I expected.

GEM did a lot better during the times we want it to do better... Before snow events. I guess the question is whether it showed "phantom" snow like GFS does. If GEM hasn't showed had any "phantom" snow this winter... I am afraid Euro is gonna bust big on this.

[IbrChris]

Fascinating. I'm impressed by how well the GEM has done.

 

Do you have the values for around 72 hours? That would be more relevant since that is the time period we are focused on right now.

The usual comparison is day 5 500 mb correlation. You could go back a few runs and pick out the correlations. I posted the GFS chart since some people seem to think it has outpaced ECMWF on accuracy this winter which is not the case. The take-away point is GFS is LESS TRUSTWORTHY than usual right now due to its poor verification during the current "dropout". Sub-0.90 is not particularly good for a model at day 5.

[TT-SEA]

GEM did a lot better during the times we want it to do better... Before snow events. I guess the question is whether it showed "phantom" snow like GFS does.

 

 

I noticed about a year ago that the GEM is great at picking up on changes first in the 96-144 hour period.

[IbrChris]

GFS has not pulled better than a 0.90 since the 120 hour verification at 18z Feb 16th (subtract 120 hours from this timestamp for the run initialization time, ie 18z Feb 11th).

[epiceast]

I noticed about a year ago that the GEM is great at picking up on changes first in the 96-144 hour period.

Unfortunately there is no way to confirm this because nobody watches the "lesser" models like GEM & NAM most of the time because we are so focused on 180+ period all winter long except before potential snow.

[GHweatherChris]

Of course.

 

There is no doubt the ECMWF is better.    Cliff Mass calls the ECMWF the gold standard... and mocks his own WRF in favor of the ECMWF surface maps.

He doesn't talk about the ECMWF surface maps.  He only admits to the actual ECMWF model being better for pattern changes.

[GHweatherChris]

Unfortunately there is no way to confirm this because nobody watches the "lesser" models like GEM & NAM most of the time because we are so focused on 180+ period all winter long except before potential snow.

I personally think that all three models this year has had the upper hand on varying events.

 

The one shown for this weekend on the GFS, could IMO put the GFS ahead for this winter.  If it ends up correct.

[TT-SEA]

He doesn't talk about the ECMWF surface maps.  He only admits to the actual ECMWF model being better for pattern changes.

 

There is not even a discussion on the ECMWF surface maps.    So far superior its amazing.

[epiceast]

Anyway here are my thoughts on this

Cold Camp

 GFS, NAM, GEM

Warm Camp

ECMWF

Wet Camp

GFS & GEM

Dry Camp

NAM & ECMWF

Notable features -- Sub 1000 low on GEM south of Vancouver Island

[brody]

There is not even a discussion on the ECMWF surface maps.    So far superior its amazing.

I would have downed 7 Pina Colada's, 3 shots of Tequila and likely f*** my GF twice in the amount of time you have spent on this board discussing model superiority while in HAWAII

 

D****T Tim, you are on vacation

[IbrChris]

ECMWF is generally superior over longer time frames...there's certain runs where GFS or GEM will beat the ECMWF, however more often the ECMWF beats them both. What is surprising to me is how well GEM is doing lately. A lot of people seem to think the GEM should take a back seat to the GFS but the verification challenges that notion. At worst GEM appears to be a fair equal of the GFS, at best slightly superior.